tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post1541058896757819429..comments2023-10-22T09:18:16.885-04:00Comments on Far and Wide: Different Numbers, Same TrendsSteve Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-63969557576034934492008-03-19T11:17:00.000-04:002008-03-19T11:17:00.000-04:00dustinHey asshat, why don't you read the post. Ip...dustin<BR/><BR/>Hey asshat, why don't you read the post. Ipsos had the Liberals UP 9 in Ontario, whereas a month ago, the Cons were up. Pay attention.<BR/><BR/>I would add, if you breakdown the Ipsos results, an outfit that "tends to overstate the Conservatives support"(Don Martin, employee of Canwest, which commissions the polls), you actually see a Liberal minority, which might explain why the Liberals issued a press release arguing just that after Ipsos put this poll out. <BR/><BR/>Ipsos was always the one that had the Cons up in Ontario, while others had very different results. The fact that Con-friendly Ipsos is showing the same trends, should worry the Conservatives. <BR/><BR/>Sorry Dustin. If you want bald faced lies, might I suggest <A HREF="http://www.johnbaird.com/" REL="nofollow">here</A>.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-51986501962318109002008-03-19T10:45:00.000-04:002008-03-19T10:45:00.000-04:00Dustin:And why don't you actually read Steve's pos...Dustin:<BR/><BR/>And why don't you actually read Steve's post.<BR/><BR/>He clearly states that these polling companies indicate the Liberals have substantial leads in Ontario, not nationally.<BR/><BR/>As well, I would not be too happy about this latest Ipsos poll. When an Ipsos poll shows the gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives is just 4 points things are not good for the Conservatives.ottlibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12695135535019042279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-69328730178587212882008-03-19T10:39:00.000-04:002008-03-19T10:39:00.000-04:00"In fact, Ipsos, Nanos and Decima all give the Lib...<I>"In fact, Ipsos, Nanos and Decima all give the Liberals large leads, so SC would appear an outlier."</I><BR/><BR/>Uhm? Really?<BR/><BR/>Take a look at the latest Ipsos poll. <BR/><BR/>http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/<BR/>pressrelease.cfm?id=3847<BR/><BR/>From what I can tell Tory 35%, Libs 31% is not a "large Liberal lead".<BR/><BR/>How about a little fact checking before you publish bald-faced lies.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-21089829253093384902008-03-18T23:52:00.000-04:002008-03-18T23:52:00.000-04:00I have to agree that the numbers in Ontario are no...I have to agree that the numbers in Ontario are not good for the Conservatives at the moment. Interestingly enough, they were close to 40% in most polls before Flaherty decided to pick his fight with Ontario. Now they are in the low 30s most likely which is probably their base. Whenever the right is united, they are pretty much guaranteed to get at least 30% in Ontario, but that is not enough to even form a minority government. Many Tories gloating over the strong by-election results should remember their gains were in Western Canada which is already predominately Tory, so sweeping the region won't do them much good.Monkey Loves to Fighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05122291567543761919noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-53390542560973037362008-03-18T23:47:00.000-04:002008-03-18T23:47:00.000-04:00Just assisting my grade nine daughter with her Gra...Just assisting my grade nine daughter with her Grade 9 Academic Math, and read the definition for "outlier". I agree with your use of a new word in my vocabulary.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-39971499801783636712008-03-18T23:12:00.000-04:002008-03-18T23:12:00.000-04:00knb,I can't help the way you see things, so if you...knb,<BR/><BR/>I can't help the way you see things, so if you are taking the situation today as good news for the LPC, then fill your boots!<BR/><BR/>However, in regards to opening up their platform, yes I think the LPC has to do it if they wish to engage Canadians. This yelling at each other in the House is not raising LPC fortunes, neither are the abstentions. If they want to poll higher, it will occur by engaging Canadian's who are thinking and wish to see what their alternatives are.<BR/><BR/>If they don't then whenever they drop the government and then start laying our their platform, they are competing with a well oiled Tory machine that will include platform ideas (policy a day?), key priorities (5?), plenty of money, and strategic negative advertising (is Karl Rove looking for work?). <BR/><BR/>If the LPC tries to "shout" their platform over top of that, the only media that will give it play will be the Star and the G&M.<BR/><BR/>They need to lay it out now to get the broadest coverage otherwise they just play to Toronto and lose everybody else (excepting Danny of course).<BR/><BR/>TommAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-62912726654144333732008-03-18T22:50:00.000-04:002008-03-18T22:50:00.000-04:00"If you see Alberta skewing national results, you ..."If you see Alberta skewing national results, you also need to see Toronto doing the same."<BR/><BR/>Actually, I was once told by a very right-wing pollster that Toronto tends to be underepresented in most polls as the 416 is the hardest area to get people on the phone in. Which, if true, could actually indicate higher Liberal support in Ontario.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-41655163551465797442008-03-18T22:37:00.000-04:002008-03-18T22:37:00.000-04:00Tomm, I really do not understand why the Con's con...Tomm, I really do not understand why the Con's continue to suggest that the Lib's should lay their platform out?<BR/><BR/>Would the Con's do that if the position was reversed? No.<BR/><BR/>The fact that they, the Con's, have no platform, save to look back and blame the Liberals is pathetic.<BR/><BR/>2 years and we are still at square on. Tough on crime and reviving Liberal measures that they previously either cut or ignored.<BR/><BR/>Impressive.Karenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04291881352139075405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-67034496172081252162008-03-18T22:34:00.000-04:002008-03-18T22:34:00.000-04:00"You need to take off the rose coloured glasses."2..."You need to take off the rose coloured glasses."<BR/><BR/>20/20 here Tomm, four polls, each one Cons trending down in Ontario, nowhere in Quebec. You do the math.<BR/><BR/>"If you see Alberta skewing national results, you also need to see Toronto doing the same."<BR/><BR/>Toronto isn't 70% Liberal, that's the difference.<BR/><BR/>knb<BR/><BR/>I heard today May is the new "it" date.<BR/><BR/><BR/>There is an opportunity here, their tactics are failing where they have to grow.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-2431909336623446912008-03-18T22:17:00.000-04:002008-03-18T22:17:00.000-04:00Steve,You need to take off the rose coloured glass...Steve,<BR/><BR/>You need to take off the rose coloured glasses.<BR/><BR/>If you see Alberta skewing national results, you also need to see Toronto doing the same. The LPC received the results of some real polling last night. If they force an election, they need to figure out a way to not lose 15% of their support to left wing drain in their urban ridings, and how not to swap 15% with the CPC everywhere else.<BR/><BR/>They need policies that legitimately differentiate them from their rivals they want to avoid a melt down with a spring election.<BR/><BR/>My belief is that after gazing into the tea leaves from last night, they will pay off some debt and wait for October 2009. <BR/><BR/>TommAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-35156228792585195522008-03-18T21:59:00.000-04:002008-03-18T21:59:00.000-04:00kris, there are 3 opposition days coming up when t...kris, there are 3 opposition days coming up when the House returns. In the first week in fact.<BR/><BR/>I doubt the trigger will be pulled then, because Van Loan pushed them out on the Friday when the house broke.<BR/><BR/>The Con's are going to have to play this very carefully and they imo, will have to do the big dare, again.<BR/><BR/>My bet is, the Lib's will go at the end of April, early May. You don't want a summer election...no one cares or at least they care less in the summer. <BR/><BR/>Everyone has been primed to expect an election now and Spring is the time when perhaps we are more alert.<BR/><BR/>Anyway, that is my guess.Karenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04291881352139075405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-15109559276078030432008-03-18T21:20:00.000-04:002008-03-18T21:20:00.000-04:00What are the possible upcoming opportunities for a...What are the possible upcoming opportunities for an election? An opposition day? Any gov't confidence votes? Regardless of the downturn of votes in Sask. and Quadra, the Liberals need to bring us to the polls within the next month or two.Krishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07286491802596341183noreply@blogger.com