tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post1660408032764530162..comments2023-10-22T09:18:16.885-04:00Comments on Far and Wide: New PollSteve Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-86914475625643266942009-09-08T10:43:44.404-04:002009-09-08T10:43:44.404-04:00I'm not sure it's deliberate, just untrust...I'm not sure it's deliberate, just untrustworthy methodology. If a pollster can't get decent replicity in Ontario and Quebec, they're useless. Other regions, whatever, it's tough with high MOE's and small samples.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-9603353418898119562009-09-08T10:08:45.512-04:002009-09-08T10:08:45.512-04:00Apparently the BQ is planning a very aggressive ad...Apparently the BQ is planning a very aggressive ad campaign in Quebec playing up all the positions Ignatieff has that are identical to Harper's (esp. his support for the invasion of Iraq) - it will be interesting to see what impact that has.DLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11587165866597795302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-13044458676037637392009-09-08T09:05:55.927-04:002009-09-08T09:05:55.927-04:00Even in the unlikely event that we had an election...Even in the unlikely event that we had an election and the popular vote was exactly what this poll says - it wouldn't exactly be good news for the Tories either. With these numbers, they would lose all their seats in Quebec and probably lose about a dozen in Ontario and I think "the west" shows them down from the last election as well.DLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11587165866597795302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-7427538770779316172009-09-08T08:41:36.656-04:002009-09-08T08:41:36.656-04:00CTV and the G&M have been the most vocal about...CTV and the G&M have been the most vocal about an election being unnecessary so these results are not surprising.<br /><br />A Liberal victory is going to come through Ontario and Quebec. <br /><br />Does anybody else find it to be a coincidence that this poll puts the Liberals in tough in both provinces?<br /><br />The G&M and CTV would not have sponsored a push poll would they? After all they have always been the paragon of jounalistic balance without any hint of political bias. Right?!?ottlibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12695135535019042279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-80188613939235668902009-09-08T07:28:05.062-04:002009-09-08T07:28:05.062-04:00Again, I don't pay attention to polls when par...Again, I don't pay attention to polls when parliament is out. Harper always does better then. When the Libs and NDP start challening the Cons on issues like isotopes, Canadians out of the country, etc....then I pay attention.<br /><br />Also, you need more polls - then take an average. One poll doesn't reflect enough.RuralSandihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09552973218865121867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-51890422325205215642009-09-07T23:57:24.902-04:002009-09-07T23:57:24.902-04:00Eric
I acknowledge the slip, we seem to be around...Eric<br /><br />I acknowledge the slip, we seem to be around 30% now, Bloc mid to high. They had another poll mid month that I don't remember them releasing. At the G and M site on the graph.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-82255484077729975702009-09-07T23:54:42.204-04:002009-09-07T23:54:42.204-04:00I should point out the 31% or 32% would be the nat...I should point out the 31% or 32% would be the national support level.Érichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-7168772411391668842009-09-07T23:53:59.354-04:002009-09-07T23:53:59.354-04:00Yeah, SC is pretty bad. They haven't even upda...Yeah, SC is pretty bad. They haven't even updated their website with their August 3 poll. <br /><br />Assuming the kind of Quebec results you'd expect, that would bump up the Liberals to 31% or 32% and the NDP to 15%, which is just what everyone else has said.<br /><br />But, one thing that is a trend is that the Liberals are slipping a little in Quebec. Certainly not to 23%, but definitely away from 35%.<br /><br />SC has been polling the Bloc high recently (44% the last time) so maybe they're trying to over-compensate for that horrid poll in February.Érichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06849352443716808247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-87621949779553959722009-09-07T23:39:31.307-04:002009-09-07T23:39:31.307-04:00I wonder if they blushed when they hit "send&...I wonder if they blushed when they hit "send"? On the heels of a big Quebec only poll, that's just unsightly.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-84648874720304465662009-09-07T23:31:05.234-04:002009-09-07T23:31:05.234-04:0016% for the Conservatives in Quebec sounds about r...16% for the Conservatives in Quebec sounds about right. The rest of the numbers look like what you get when you play pin the tail on the donkey.DLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11587165866597795302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-62686284749428794072009-09-07T23:03:29.898-04:002009-09-07T23:03:29.898-04:00HD does have the odd funky regional, but their nat...HD does have the odd funky regional, but their national numbers stay very consistent, not the big swings.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-36065334836637332882009-09-07T23:02:15.144-04:002009-09-07T23:02:15.144-04:00DL
Can't see it, anyone with any sense in Que...DL<br /><br />Can't see it, anyone with any sense in Quebec looks at those numbers will an eye roll. So obscene, you can't get traction. Three polls last week all had the Libs at 30%, a sense they've stabilized at that level with potential. I do get nervous about certain trends, I'm tossing this poll aside without a second thought at this point. <br /><br />BTW, SC also tends to have the Cons quite high in Ontario.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-87292582844748157222009-09-07T22:54:20.356-04:002009-09-07T22:54:20.356-04:00You beat me to it in terms of pointing out how biz...You beat me to it in terms of pointing out how bizarre that poll is and how this is a company that not too long ago claimed that the Green Party went from 4% to 26% and back to 5% in Quebec in the space f three polls. I've always found SC to have very erratic numbers and Decima also seems to often have some really whacky regional numbers. Ekos and Angus Reid seem to have the most consistent numbers and are the least prone to wild pendulum swings that defy any logic.<br /><br />Hopefully other polls will come out soon though because polls do tend to ave a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy about them. It word gets around that the Liberals are in collapse in Quebec (even if it isn't true) - it can be self-fulfilling as prospective candidates suddenly lose confidence and drop out etc...DLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11587165866597795302noreply@blogger.com