tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post244927102188513371..comments2023-10-22T09:18:16.885-04:00Comments on Far and Wide: More Poll FunSteve Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-21061277766248094442007-10-05T19:51:00.000-04:002007-10-05T19:51:00.000-04:00ottlibBut, when Harper was having problems we saw ...ottlib<BR/><BR/>But, when Harper was having problems we saw an inverse relationship with Liberal support. Harper faltered, Liberal support mirrors. What makes this situation unique, nobody seems to move, and you don't see a direct ebb and flow between the Libs and Cons.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-11131895387027101202007-10-05T11:46:00.000-04:002007-10-05T11:46:00.000-04:00steve:It is not unique. We have seen this before....steve:<BR/><BR/>It is not unique. We have seen this before. Stephen Harper had similar problems when he won the leadership of the Conservative Party. Those problems did not help him in the eyes of Canadians but they did not harm him either. Really, Canadians looked at the troubles of the early days of his leadership and yawned. <BR/><BR/>The problem is that you are giving the same weight to issues that involve a political party as those that involve the country at large.<BR/><BR/>Most people do not care about what happens to a political party in between elections, even I would point out, when that party is in government. When Paul Martin was fired as Finance Minister the support for the Liberals did not budge one way for the other. Here was the long-standing schism in the Liberal Party breaking wide open in spectacular fashion and the reaction of Canadians was a collective shrug.<BR/><BR/>So it is hardly surprising that they would ignore the problems of the Liberal Party when it is in Opposition.ottlibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12695135535019042279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-80182813918452795122007-10-04T14:00:00.000-04:002007-10-04T14:00:00.000-04:00"This poll reflects the trend that we have been wi..."This poll reflects the trend that we have been witnessing for almost a year so it is not counter-intuitive."<BR/><BR/>Generally, a barrage of bad press does have consequence. I'll throw one of your contentions out that you raised before. In the summer, it is normal for the ruling party to do well, because as you've argued, the opposition doesn't get any ink when parliament is out. That is intuitive, based on past experience, just as my above. Yet that didn't happen. We are in a unique dynamic.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-3047082650997533382007-10-04T12:40:00.000-04:002007-10-04T12:40:00.000-04:00Sometimes a by-election is just a by-election and ...Sometimes a by-election is just a by-election and it does not have any big national importance. Of course you can never tell the difference until well after the fact. Although, that will not stop all of the usual suspects from spinning those results, in the here and now, to suit their short-term political goals.<BR/><BR/>This poll reflects the trend that we have been witnessing for almost a year so it is not counter-intuitive.<BR/><BR/>It is only so if you believe people outside of the political blogsphere really care what Mr. Carroll said or that Mr. Dion replaced a bunch of his advisors or that the Liberals lost one of their strongholds.<BR/><BR/>Most of this just does not matter beyond the chattering classes.ottlibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12695135535019042279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-84582000787077908862007-10-04T12:38:00.000-04:002007-10-04T12:38:00.000-04:00Mile 0: Duceppe has come out for voting against a ...<B>Mile 0</B>: <I>Duceppe has come out for voting against a Con throne speech and taking down the government since the recent by elections. Quite a big change.</I><BR/><BR/><B>SG</B>: In fact ... 'Some Say' ... Duceppe admits to being quite a <B>bloc head</B>, with his pro-Harper policies, before becoming a pure laine anti-Harperite.<BR/><BR/>Duceppe has been heard by some to say, "Mange la merd, 'Arper" and "No more World According to 'Arper" <BR/><BR/>As Duceppe attempts to become the 'author' of a new persona, his own 'man at mile zero', as it were, the woman there with him could be right. Things in Quebec could be changing ... one 'decima' point at a time ...<BR/><BR/>SnerdSnerd Gronkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01124239436913454249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-38625234266511831182007-10-04T12:14:00.000-04:002007-10-04T12:14:00.000-04:00I'm not suggesting the poll is correct, in fact it...I'm not suggesting the poll is correct, in fact it's counter-intuitive. <BR/><BR/>The Bloc did jump after Duceppe's flip flop on the PQ leadership, which was equally as confounding. As Daniel points out the bump was temporary, but Duceppe has been anything but a shrinking violet in the by-election aftermath.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-90942675640965925052007-10-04T11:47:00.000-04:002007-10-04T11:47:00.000-04:00If this poll had been taken, say, a month ago, I'd...If this poll had been taken, say, a month ago, I'd find it believable; but in the wake of everything that's happened (especially in Quebec), I just can't see these numbers being...well, real.<BR/><BR/>Didn't a polling company (maybe even Decima) come out with a poll in the wake of Duceppe's PQ leadership flip-flop a few months ago that showed a significant increase for the Bloc, only to have a flood of polls in the following weeks showing a serious decline in Bloc numbers? Maybe it takes time for stuff like this to "sink in" - or, maybe Dion is the teflon man.<BR/><BR/>I just don't think I could put a lot of stock in this single poll - I mean, if things in Quebec were relatively stable compared to Election 2006 numbers, then wouldn't this trend have at least been <I>marginally</I> expressed in the by-elections? I find it hard to believe that the shake-up in popular opinion reflected in earlier polls and the by-elections just suddenly reverted to their baseline after such a short time (and <I>especially</I> given the events that have transpired in that time).danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16941331790158166428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-61769681202178886452007-10-04T10:42:00.000-04:002007-10-04T10:42:00.000-04:00Well it just reflects what i said a few days bef...Well it just reflects what i said a few days before THERE IS a solid base for Liberal votes and I do expect it to Grow in the case of National election .Quebec cant "VAG THE DOG" forever and the tide against all special interests feeding is started ..<BR/>this country Liberal or Left of Center mostly .. people will see through all the Harper's Veils.<BR/><BR/>Just as in the recent example of the Tory's Lesson /in Ontario / he was trying To win some special groups Votes with this stupid religious schools funding and he was thinking the rest of the population won't notice .....well he was wrong..<BR/>Harper is doing all he can to apologize /and giving money to all kinds of special groups to win votes and he hopes the country just shrugs it off??? He is wrong.. it is overdone..<BR/>enough is enough..<BR/>And he is really doing preciously nothing the real problems Canada is facing now .THE .ENVIRONMENT<BR/>can he get away with that?? NOOOOOOOO.<BR/><BR/>martaDamehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15548065189088501935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-33736580732469482802007-10-04T10:15:00.000-04:002007-10-04T10:15:00.000-04:00Im very leary over decima polls...run by the cons....Im very leary over decima polls...run by the cons...they are probably coming out with a poll next week with cons way ahead because of his press conference; if that press conference gets harper votes it wont be from me....the continual smirk/smile on his face as if he is a god looking down on us...he is a smart aleck and a bully who is holding a press conference and smirking at the media just because he wants good coverage in the upcoming election...what a jerk,,signed grampsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-69811599940180574802007-10-04T09:43:00.000-04:002007-10-04T09:43:00.000-04:00"I find that interesting - the press are listening..."I find that interesting - the press are listening to Harper on this instead of doing their own investigation? Hmmm...."<BR/><BR/>I've been noticing more and more of that. Reporting from anonymous sources is on the rise as well. Not good, when you have to treat some media sources with the same mistrust we treat politicans.900ft Jesushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01882830831096870992noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-44773258027249055552007-10-04T08:50:00.000-04:002007-10-04T08:50:00.000-04:00Is the bickering issue being highly over-exagerate...Is the bickering issue being highly over-exagerated?<BR/><BR/>NDP's Pat Martin has come out stating his disgust that the Conservatives are mass e-mailing the press about Dion's problems.<BR/><BR/>I find that interesting - the press are listening to Harper on this instead of doing their own investigation? Hmmm....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-82392608774982502992007-10-04T06:28:00.000-04:002007-10-04T06:28:00.000-04:00I keep saying: Liberal bickering is inside basebal...I keep saying: Liberal bickering is inside baseball stuff. Not that it isn't bad, its just that as an issue that can move the polling numbers, it isn't that important. On the other hand, the party is still in crap shape organizationally in Quebec.bigcitylibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05081538803991095825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-52924319612537894032007-10-04T00:45:00.000-04:002007-10-04T00:45:00.000-04:00Easily could have happened IP...Duceppe has come o...Easily could have happened IP...Duceppe has come out for voting against a Con throne speech and taking down the government since the recent by elections. Quite a big change.Woman at Mile 0https://www.blogger.com/profile/02007966021603937917noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-49244397595839305752007-10-04T00:12:00.000-04:002007-10-04T00:12:00.000-04:00The Bloc jumped nine points between the by-electio...The Bloc jumped nine points between the by-elections and now? Um...no.Idealistic Pragmatisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18296481430598981678noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-73749002341980065842007-10-03T23:45:00.000-04:002007-10-03T23:45:00.000-04:00That's interesting. Weird... inexplicable, bizarre...That's interesting. Weird... inexplicable, bizarre... but interesting.Red Toryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00422305796158017027noreply@blogger.com