tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post2904662286750000457..comments2023-10-22T09:18:16.885-04:00Comments on Far and Wide: On ElectabilitySteve Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-5542830860628753132008-12-08T02:24:00.000-05:002008-12-08T02:24:00.000-05:00"Another item that stuck out, despite this percept..."Another item that stuck out, despite this perception of Rae as "left", Ignatieff as "centrist", the NDP actually do worse if Ignatieff were leader, down to 13% (5% less than what the pollster gives them today), while they score 15% against Rae."<BR/><BR/>Iggy also appeals to the soft left, votes that Layton and Mulcair tee off on in the last election. A more articulate version of Stephane Dion.<BR/><BR/>"The Cons will unleash a shitstorm against the new Liberal leader, wow that's a shocker. We start in a stronger position with Ignatieff, that's the point."<BR/><BR/>Attacking Iggy also means surrendering the centre right. It leaves the Cons hostage to gun nuts and bible freaks. They can win one election, even a majority this way. They can't win another one as McCain and Palin showed.<BR/><BR/>"On thing to consider, I don't recall our caucus consulting me on whether or not Liberals support a coalition with the NDP."<BR/><BR/>It was a top-down effort by some of Dion's closest advisors. They railroad the caucus and the keystone cops effort happened to be Dion's last stand. Many Grit voters sat on their hands in the last election, who knows how many will do this with the coalition front and centre.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-69955048907855455232008-12-07T23:32:00.000-05:002008-12-07T23:32:00.000-05:00Today, Ignatieff framed the question on the coalit...Today, Ignatieff framed the question on the coalition with an acknowledgement that it could succeed where Harper's budget fails. This is encouraging.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-21360333147466275322008-12-07T23:23:00.000-05:002008-12-07T23:23:00.000-05:00Nobody is kidding themselves, but don't deny the p...Nobody is kidding themselves, but don't deny the possibilities of "new". It will be, what we make of it, but a fresh start will do wonders for morale.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-42588967563470045622008-12-07T23:21:00.000-05:002008-12-07T23:21:00.000-05:00However, lets not kid ourselves, Iggy is not the m...However, lets not kid ourselves, Iggy is not the magic bullet. This is only step one. Yet, I am not to worried about the Harper attack machine, I think Iggy will counterattack much better than Dion.liberazzihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14798202757576009552noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-18505894958742256342008-12-07T23:16:00.000-05:002008-12-07T23:16:00.000-05:00So am I, finally we can turn the page.So am I, finally we can turn the page.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-27062173375256519222008-12-07T23:14:00.000-05:002008-12-07T23:14:00.000-05:00In any event, I am looking forward to a new era ha...In any event, I am looking forward to a new era happening sooner rather than later.liberazzihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14798202757576009552noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-53236681330570834222008-12-07T23:05:00.000-05:002008-12-07T23:05:00.000-05:00RuralOn thing to consider, I don't recall our cauc...Rural<BR/><BR/>On thing to consider, I don't recall our caucus consulting me on whether or not Liberals support a coalition with the NDP. Nope, they just went ahead on their own, but nobody is crying foul on that crucial decision, that has NEVER been floated to the membership. Selective outrage.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-58024166658519259212008-12-07T23:03:00.000-05:002008-12-07T23:03:00.000-05:00" My point is that i take polls that show Iggy swe..." My point is that i take polls that show Iggy sweeping the country with a big grain of salt"<BR/><BR/>No shit. That's why I say a good "starting" point.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-23542272606811186142008-12-07T22:59:00.001-05:002008-12-07T22:59:00.001-05:00Rae is much more of a known quantity than Iggy. ma...Rae is much more of a known quantity than Iggy. many people already know what they think of him - so if polls show he would do badly - i agree he probably would. My point is that i take polls that show Iggy sweeping the country with a big grain of salt because right now he is unknown to the vast majority of people. He's just a name.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-46503453765765995872008-12-07T22:59:00.000-05:002008-12-07T22:59:00.000-05:00Well, Brian Wilfert said on Newsnet tonight that h...Well, Brian Wilfert said on Newsnet tonight that he is supporting Ignatieff and he gave many reasons. He said that Ignatieff really listens when you talk to him.<BR/><BR/>And, don't be naive - the CPC have probably had attack ad packages ready for each and every candidate, including LeBlanc, who apparently is dropping out since they let their intentions be known. None of them will escape that.<BR/><BR/>What can be learned from Obama's race - when attacked he responded right away and it worked.<BR/><BR/>Dion and John Kerry did not respond like they should have.RuralSandihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09552973218865121867noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-88313961444402811382008-12-07T22:55:00.000-05:002008-12-07T22:55:00.000-05:00libThat's exactly what Herle floated on Friday, al...lib<BR/><BR/>That's exactly what Herle floated on Friday, although "interim" was left out. I'm okay with that, but I think we should be more proactive now. There is no logistical barrier to having some kind of consultation straight away, flawed but adequate, something to rubberstamp so we can all cry legitimacy.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-44922572967533091302008-12-07T22:53:00.000-05:002008-12-07T22:53:00.000-05:00anonIf you think those Rae numbers are meaningless...anon<BR/><BR/><BR/>If you think those Rae numbers are meaningless, then... Voters don't know any of these people well, most still consider Harper an enigma for cripes sake. It all comes down to a few superficial perceptions and three soundbites. That's the average voter, so arguing that pitfalls await, once a deeper understanding arises, fails to acknowledge just how completely apathetic most of us are.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-73749749890510264032008-12-07T22:52:00.000-05:002008-12-07T22:52:00.000-05:00Reading CBC it looks like Iggy will be made interi...Reading CBC it looks like Iggy will be made interim, not permanent on Wed, with a ratification in Van. What happens to Rae then?liberazzihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14798202757576009552noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-10010411305174769812008-12-07T22:42:00.000-05:002008-12-07T22:42:00.000-05:00I agree that Canadians MAY like Iggy. But the real...I agree that Canadians MAY like Iggy. But the reality is that right now, very few people know anything about him - so I think that polls showing that he is more popular than Rae etc... are almost meaningless. I wonder how well the Liberals would do in a poll if led by a fictitious person named Craig Wolverhampton??Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-20546682230459561862008-12-07T22:41:00.000-05:002008-12-07T22:41:00.000-05:00Steve:Didnt think about that. Then it would have t...Steve:<BR/><BR/>Didnt think about that. Then it would have to be a total membership vote and the MPs would have to vote unanimous for whoever comes out on top and respect the vote of the members.<BR/><BR/>It is the only way to get around the constitution, but still respecting the members. <BR/><BR/>If Iggy is voted in on Wed, then you will have people like Curran screaming blue murder. I think in order to passify Rae and his supporters he will have to be offered a plum job. If Iggy is the man, I hope we can finally stop the leadership crap and move on to the real business at hand. ALL LIBERALS MUST REALIZE THIS FOR ONCE THE GOOD OF THE PARTY. If we dont we are doomed to be in opposition for a long time.<BR/><BR/>Finally, the convention in Van needs to be turned into a policy convention, Iggy promised;)liberazzihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14798202757576009552noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-19824701634949419912008-12-07T22:32:00.000-05:002008-12-07T22:32:00.000-05:00anonAnd, there's a lot Canadians MAY like too. Yo...anon<BR/><BR/>And, there's a lot Canadians MAY like too. You're saying a whole lot of nothing here. I'll take this finding, it's not the first one, it's a solid starting position. Period.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-62963766445016902572008-12-07T22:25:00.000-05:002008-12-07T22:25:00.000-05:00I wouldn't read too much into that poll with regar...I wouldn't read too much into that poll with regard to Ignatieff. The fact of the matter is that the vast majority of Canadians don't actually know much about Iggy. Unless you are one of the 2% of the population who are political junkies - he is basically just a name. On top of that by virtue of having had a low profile over the past while and never having run anything before - people can project whatever they want onto him. He may be a good leader or he may not be. There is a lot about Iggy that Canadians may NOT like. He comes across as a very upper class patrician. He doesn't have a populist bone in his body. he is still a relatively inexperienced politician who could easily screw things up. Who knows? <BR/><BR/>Also, who knows what Iggy actually thinks of the coalition. He may have tried to play at being lukewarm when he was just a candidate for the leadership. But once he is actually Liberal leader - suddenly, sticking with the coalition means he gets sworn in as PM as early as Jan. 28!! That sure beats possibly waiting a year before that happens - if ever.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-20260434563072910222008-12-07T22:12:00.000-05:002008-12-07T22:12:00.000-05:00anonThat "gaffe prone" stuff is ancient history, u...anon<BR/><BR/>That "gaffe prone" stuff is ancient history, unless of course it's still 2006. Get over it.<BR/><BR/>lib<BR/><BR/>The only problem with that, what about all the ridings without an MP?Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-77247063529045638682008-12-07T21:53:00.000-05:002008-12-07T21:53:00.000-05:00any ideas why it seems that Iggy as leader could l...<I>any ideas why it seems that Iggy as leader could lead to lessening support for the NDP?</I><BR/><BR/>I think it's because the traditional knocks in Ignatieff are off base. There's a lot about him that can appeal to groups of NDP supporters. His experience working for human rights, for example, his work with the UN, and as a documentary journalist bring attention to the cause of oppressed peoples. <BR/><BR/>A number of my academic friends on the left are very intrigued about a Liberal Party led by Michael.Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14971310821484459106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-6718150956277806412008-12-07T21:20:00.000-05:002008-12-07T21:20:00.000-05:00Interesting and hopeful!any ideas why it seems tha...Interesting and hopeful!<BR/><BR/>any ideas why it seems that Iggy as leader could lead to lessening support for the NDP? (It doesn't seem to make sense to me in terms of correlation etc..)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-80734258514636919022008-12-07T20:20:00.000-05:002008-12-07T20:20:00.000-05:00Steve:This idea hit me tonight, based on some of y...Steve:<BR/><BR/>This idea hit me tonight, based on some of your ideas and others. Let me know what you guys think and if there are any holes in it:<BR/><BR/>Assuming that Dion resigns this week, this is what I propose, which is an amalgamation of ideas.<BR/><BR/>Since the constitution would only allow the caucus an emergency vote should Dion resign without a convention, I propose the following:Let the caucus decide, but only upon the "guidance" of the membership. Allow a riding vote or a one member one vote scenario, but the caucus would have to follow the vote of the members. It is a work around that allows the best of both worlds. It gets around the constitution, but allows members a say. Non?<BR/><BR/>Therefore, if Rae or Iggy gets the most membership votes, then the caucus would have to vote for that candidate. Now if it were a riding vote, then that MP would have to vote for the candidate that won that riding, regardless of their affiliation.I think it works, quite exited actually about this idea. If everyone is in agreement then we should promote the hell out of this idea and make the executive listen!<BR/><BR/>The vote by the members would be non-binding, but the MPs would have to agree ahead of it to follow the result when they vote for a new leader. Is there any reason why anyone would oppose this idea?liberazzihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14798202757576009552noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-49387851046191484592008-12-07T20:18:00.000-05:002008-12-07T20:18:00.000-05:00Seems to me that both John Turner and Kim Campbell...Seems to me that both John Turner and Kim Campbell polled quite well till they actually had to campaign in a general election.<BR/><BR/>If Iggy can keep his mouth shut he may win the leadership but surely his gaffe-prone, lack-of-executive-experience means big risks down the road.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-56620865837704901432008-12-07T19:42:00.000-05:002008-12-07T19:42:00.000-05:00MikeWho has blinders on? The Cons will unleash a ...Mike<BR/><BR/>Who has blinders on? The Cons will unleash a shitstorm against the new Liberal leader, wow that's a shocker. We start in a stronger position with Ignatieff, that's the point. Saying, oh don't get excited, because the attacks are coming, is irrelevant, because any Liberal leader faces that cirucmstance, it's a given. The question for Liberals, are we better able to respond, have we learned anything from the past.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-77637468841724961232008-12-07T19:28:00.000-05:002008-12-07T19:28:00.000-05:00Ok Steve. But if you think millions of dollars of ...Ok Steve. But if you think millions of dollars of weeks straight attack ads won't bring Ignatieff down at least 5 points in the polls from where he sits at that time you must know something I don't. I won't be surprised if the Cons start running ads against both Rae and Ignatieff starting next week now that they are assured LeBlanc is out of the picture.<BR/><BR/>The party has no money to fight back and nor can they favour one candidate over another in their response. We have to be realistic here and not have blinders on, polls are just a snapshot.Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15481948382858467120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-10001884325743901772008-12-07T18:58:00.000-05:002008-12-07T18:58:00.000-05:00MikeDon't confuse a leadership convention BOUNCE a...Mike<BR/><BR/>Don't confuse a leadership convention BOUNCE as indicative of anything, or extrapolate that onto someone else.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.com