tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post3256425323020212630..comments2023-10-22T09:18:16.885-04:00Comments on Far and Wide: The Low Road To NowhereSteve Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-31479798986815206172008-08-15T12:14:00.000-04:002008-08-15T12:14:00.000-04:00antonioOne thing you must acknowledge, the trend l...antonio<BR/><BR/>One thing you must acknowledge, the trend lines are good for the Libs in these national, with regionals, polls. It's fine to argue the bigger sample size Quebec only polls are more indicative, but there is a relevant point, when you see the same polling outfit showing an uptick over time. Decima uses the same methodology and sample size, so if we see a change from poll to poll, it probably means something.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-82757154951168036752008-08-15T01:20:00.000-04:002008-08-15T01:20:00.000-04:00"I know some will argue that the Quebec only polls..."I know some will argue that the Quebec only polls are more indicative, and that may be true, but you have to like the trends for the Liberals in Quebec."<BR/><BR/>4 times as large a sample is significant<BR/><BR/>Leger and Crop are the only firms to indicate so far the difference between the Quebec Liberal bounce (pretty significant) and the federal Liberal bounce (more subdued but present)<BR/><BR/>Nobody knows what will happen here<BR/><BR/>thats why Saint Lambert is the by-election where many analysts will want to take a deeper look into the results<BR/><BR/>how will the separatists do?<BR/><BR/>how does the non BQ vote break down in a suburban Montreal riding?Anthonyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04018582124108708061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-34921164716376465842008-08-13T23:46:00.000-04:002008-08-13T23:46:00.000-04:00Arrrgh, I was wrong!!By this time I expected the i...Arrrgh, I was wrong!!<BR/><BR/>By this time I expected the incumbant advantage to kick in and have the Conservatives at around 36% with the Liberals around 30%.<BR/><BR/>Now they publish this poll which has them closer to 30% than the Liberals (just).<BR/><BR/>What a bummer. At least I have Ipsos-Reid to show what a genius I am.<BR/><BR/>(OT Question: Does anybody know the combination of keys that one would use to show tougue in cheek?)ottlibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12695135535019042279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-34126992222557567472008-08-13T22:29:00.001-04:002008-08-13T22:29:00.001-04:00Sorry knb :)Sorry knb :)Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-50279405646972615252008-08-13T20:54:00.000-04:002008-08-13T20:54:00.000-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Karenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04291881352139075405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-29963067747397215032008-08-13T20:31:00.000-04:002008-08-13T20:31:00.000-04:00There is a bit of pressure for the NDP to do well ...There is a bit of pressure for the NDP to do well in Quebec. They obviously don't have to win, but if there is a poor showing, then Mulcair looks a one off, any momentum evaporates and the NDP is still on the fringe. <BR/><BR/>As for Guelph, I think Layton is renting an apartment in town, so he will be hard pressed to fluff off a poor showing. I'm not saying it will be a bad outcome, but there is a worst case scenario here for the NDP in these by-elections too.<BR/><BR/>As far as this poll, it isn't the first to show the NDP tanking in Ontario, might be a trend.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-79970138177888111922008-08-13T20:27:00.000-04:002008-08-13T20:27:00.000-04:00Scott,That should be the focus of the election ad ...Scott,<BR/><BR/>That should be the focus of the election ad blitz. Tie Harper with the neo-con policies. Especially in Ontario.<BR/><BR/>Tracing this to the by-elections, there is a high possibility that Layton will be the most disappointed camper on Sept 8. No carry over from Mulcair and a massive Green challenge in Guelph that seeks to overwhelm them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-9008109737984080482008-08-13T19:55:00.000-04:002008-08-13T19:55:00.000-04:00Quebec:Averaging three weeks, the BQ leads with 37...Quebec:<BR/><BR/>Averaging three weeks, the BQ leads with 37%<BR/>compared to 25% for the Liberals, 17% for the Conservatives, 11% for the NDP and 9% for<BR/>the Green Party.<BR/><BR/><BR/>Ontario:<BR/><BR/>Averaging three weeks, the Liberals lead with 38%<BR/>compared to the Conservatives at 32%, the NDP at 16% and the Greens at 13%<BR/><BR/>July 3rd<BR/><BR/><BR/>NDP now fourth in Quebec, tied for last in Ontario.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-5123956683946830632008-08-13T19:49:00.000-04:002008-08-13T19:49:00.000-04:00Steve, can you grab the last poll, same firm, with...Steve, can you grab the last poll, same firm, with Ontario and Quebec numbers?<BR/><BR/>It feels like the NDP are dropping, but stat's are better than feelings in this conversation.Karenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04291881352139075405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-77688140910321351382008-08-13T19:40:00.000-04:002008-08-13T19:40:00.000-04:00That's very easy to remedy, Mushroom. You just tel...That's very easy to remedy, Mushroom. You just tell them regardless of what you have thought of Liberal tactics and strategy or who you like or don't like running the show, your inactivity means Harper will get re-elected, and his neo-conservative policies continued. If they don't want that, come out and vote.Oxford County Liberalshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12181314055142726735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-6983882250645181352008-08-13T19:31:00.000-04:002008-08-13T19:31:00.000-04:00The key for the Grits come election day is to get ...The key for the Grits come election day is to get out the vote. There is still evidence some Grit supporters will sit on their hands.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com