tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post4451490601400031732..comments2023-10-22T09:18:16.885-04:00Comments on Far and Wide: No BounceSteve Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-2669070523949950052010-03-05T00:43:48.915-05:002010-03-05T00:43:48.915-05:00Of interest was the increase in sports funding in ...Of interest was the increase in sports funding in today's budget. I would venture a guess that this was done deliberately, probably at the last minute to fuel the Olympic spirit and gain points. After all, most MPs were warning that funding would not increase in the budget just days before...so it had to be a last minute move for points.<br />It would be nice to funding for the arts would receive a similar boost...ah well.weeblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03591531825570909900noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-34091051205058395202010-03-04T14:56:31.238-05:002010-03-04T14:56:31.238-05:00Scott
The way people interpret these polls is emb...Scott<br /><br />The way people interpret these polls is embarrassing, not to mention amateurish. If you haven't a clue about your subject matter, just shut up.<br /><br />I'll refer people to last fall, and you'll see I was quite forthcoming about what those polls meant to the Liberals. I posted them, I said they were brutal. Why? Because I'm not particularly interested in lying to myself, the numbers spoke for themselves. In this instance, the numbers haven't moved in three weeks and yet we endure silly "analysis" and conclusions, where none exists.<br /><br />The story this year is such. Prorogation virtually eliminated the large Con lead. Their numbers have stabilized, the Libs still have trouble getting traction, no one can be certain of anything, so a campaign is unlikely. That's where we're at, nobody has momentum. When that changes, I'll be the first to acknowledge, but I'm not interested in exaggerating shitty polls, or seeing bounces where none exist. The real story here, why there was no significant bounce?Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-48978014599607881102010-03-04T14:51:54.806-05:002010-03-04T14:51:54.806-05:00MJ
I'll refer to the pollster himself on thos...MJ<br /><br />I'll refer to the pollster himself on those last two days:<br /><br />"“Even if you discount all of the daily stuff as random perturbations the overall story has to be mildly disturbing for the CPC,” Mr. Graves says. <br /><br />“Here we are on the heels of one of the most feel-good periods in our history, and a concerted, error-free run untainted by the inconvenient probing of the opposition and they end up very close to a statistical dead heat.” <br /><br /><br />As for these silly references to Ipsos last fall, I don't have any more time for stupid people. Seriously, go read my other comments, it's as clear as day.<br /><br />I know, I know, you silly Cons are desperate to believe in Ipsos. That's your prerogative, but their record is what it is, simple empirical evidence that has no inherent bias. <br /><br />It's so whatever from here, live in the dreamworld, it's not my concern.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-10133358129345361242010-03-04T14:47:08.086-05:002010-03-04T14:47:08.086-05:00man MJ are you just spamming the same comment acro...man MJ are you just spamming the same comment across the internet?<br /><br />Lame...Gene Rayburnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12438068218145410142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-55636625063576276222010-03-04T14:44:03.270-05:002010-03-04T14:44:03.270-05:00There was a bounce in the two days after the gold ...There was a bounce in the two days after the gold medal hockey game no? Those two days are still a fairly large sample. Steve has referred to past single day results in past posts.<br />What you think Scott and Steve?<br />I'm not sure outright dismissal of any remotely bad numbers is helpful to Liberals at this point. Doing so feeds an impression that Liberals need only sit back and can rest assured we'll maintain numbers within a few points of the Tories. I remember the last screams of outliers the last time the Tories were starting to open a wider gap and yes it all started with an Ipsos poll we all laughed at as implausible. Screaming outlier wasn't helpful then either. Time will tell, maybe I sound too alarmist but I think dismissing Ipsos and the last two days of Ekos outright is unwise.MJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12088373100613577020noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-69867426205432529072010-03-04T14:27:30.340-05:002010-03-04T14:27:30.340-05:00According to a nameless Macleans editor, this Ekos...According to a <a href="http://www2.macleans.ca/2010/03/04/conservatives-edge-ahead/" rel="nofollow">nameless Macleans editor</a>, this Ekos poll shows the Tories have pulled ahead, and the liberals are in trouble.<br /><br />Huh?<br /><br />He mustn't follow polls week to week. Anyhow.. I left them a piece of my mind in comments.Oxford County Liberalshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12181314055142726735noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-11542140438126411572010-03-04T11:51:25.730-05:002010-03-04T11:51:25.730-05:00I can't type today either ...I originally said...I can't type today either ...I originally said "I would <b>not</b> expect the NDP dropping"Tof KWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15756310841374198056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-80331837933280395812010-03-04T11:49:55.439-05:002010-03-04T11:49:55.439-05:00Easy, I mis-read that between the before and after...Easy, I mis-read that between the before and after numbers. My error. As I said I would expect the NDP dropping, and also that I'm not the pollologist here (for obvious reasons).Tof KWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15756310841374198056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-56443253162514675132010-03-04T11:42:40.954-05:002010-03-04T11:42:40.954-05:00"Even if counting Ipsos, I find it interestin..."Even if counting Ipsos, I find it interesting after J averaged things out that the NDP dropped while every other party gained, even if only a little. To be honest I wouldn't have expected that."<br /><br />How is going from 15.3 to 16.3 "dropping"?DLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11587165866597795302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-8885490623826559982010-03-04T11:25:59.022-05:002010-03-04T11:25:59.022-05:00"favorable" is "favourable" in..."favorable" is "favourable" in Canada. <br /><br />Ah, the tyranny of US-based software.CuJoYYChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12235525186436704142noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-66096206516924439742010-03-04T11:13:27.659-05:002010-03-04T11:13:27.659-05:00It's telling that Layton's increasing popu...It's telling that Layton's increasing popularity doesn't seem to translate at all.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-24219759209719730392010-03-04T11:08:33.793-05:002010-03-04T11:08:33.793-05:00Even if counting Ipsos, I find it interesting afte...Even if counting Ipsos, I find it interesting after J averaged things out that the NDP dropped while every other party gained, even if only a little. To be honest I wouldn't have expected that.Tof KWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15756310841374198056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-54603990098108871822010-03-04T10:58:09.983-05:002010-03-04T10:58:09.983-05:00J
Good stuff. One small caveat, when you include...J<br /><br />Good stuff. One small caveat, when you include the outlier polls, it doesn't give the best representation. I suspect if you axe Oopsos, your trend is the same as what I've argued (even though it's pretty much the same anyways). At the very least, some weighting, based on past accuracy, is the best way to get a "real" feel. I've always had a problem with giving each poll the same focus, despite empirical evidence that suggests some are more deserving than others. If you truly want accuracy, you must incorporate reliability. Anyways, thanks for that.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-61726949497853779222010-03-04T10:53:25.196-05:002010-03-04T10:53:25.196-05:00Not only that, notice how the tone of the EAP comm...Not only that, notice how the tone of the EAP commercials has shifted to a real emphasis on tax cuts? The Reformatories are really getting desperate. You are correct Steve, oftentimes the reactions are more telling.Tof KWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15756310841374198056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-34383308308165433102010-03-04T10:52:37.105-05:002010-03-04T10:52:37.105-05:00I've been doing 30 day polling averages, with ...I've been doing 30 day polling averages, with the new ekos poll my results are (difference from pre-olympics in brackets): <br /><br />CON 32.9(31.9)<br />LIB 30 (30.9)<br />NDP 16.3 (15.3)<br />BQ 9 (9.1)<br />GRN&OTH 11 (11.4)<br /><br />Two months ago the average showed the tories at 36-37 so the prorogation knocked them down quite a bit.<br /><br />BTW follow me on twitter http://twitter.com/cdnpoll I will be constantly updating the average.CDN Pollhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15485511224676578078noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-51010943479411896032010-03-04T10:46:46.676-05:002010-03-04T10:46:46.676-05:00Good call. Must be fairly disappointing, that des...Good call. Must be fairly disappointing, that despite high profile interviews, watched by a staggering amount of Canadians, it hasn't translated one bit.<br /><br />I also read today, that the government RAMPED up the Economic Action Plan ads during the Olympics.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-61333094368899566132010-03-04T10:41:56.641-05:002010-03-04T10:41:56.641-05:00Well, so all my postings here and there in the blo...Well, so all my postings here and there in the blogging world that there would be no Olympic afterglow for the CPofC (all based on past precedent) and the hive-minded Harpernauts telling me I'm full of it ...has come to be. Harper got zilch from the Olympic break.<br /><br />All bow before my powers of prognostication :)<br /><br />Though I will never be the pollologist you are Steve, and this coming from someone who is a Pole! ;)Tof KWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15756310841374198056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-26175799492309384512010-03-04T10:35:48.952-05:002010-03-04T10:35:48.952-05:00That's right
No olympic bounce.
It is only g...That's right<br /><br />No olympic bounce.<br /><br />It is only going to get worse,<br />with all the negative issues now facing the tories.<br /><br />Is it just me<br /><br />We had prorogation in order for Steve to recalibrate and refocus for what?<br /><br />That throne speech yesterday, was just downright embarassing.49 Stepshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11586326231765732306noreply@blogger.com