tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post6087164224358304194..comments2023-10-22T09:18:16.885-04:00Comments on Far and Wide: Call It Spin, But...Steve Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-18797423286058397102008-09-05T10:14:00.000-04:002008-09-05T10:14:00.000-04:00"Did you watch the national debates?"That was one ..."Did you watch the national debates?"<BR/><BR/>That was one of the most amazing things I've witnessed in politics. A socialist, ignorning a right wing agenda, entirely focused on Martin, while Harper sat back and smiled.<BR/><BR/>That said, I think the NDP braintrust may understand the unease of looking so opportunistic, and instead they may return to a more traditional ideological approach.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-20891417340159129792008-09-05T09:53:00.000-04:002008-09-05T09:53:00.000-04:00Tomm - "The NDP is focuessed only on Harper and ar...Tomm - "The NDP is focuessed only on Harper and are ignoring the Liberals."<BR/><BR/>The last two elections the NDP basically pretended that the Conservatives didn't exist. Did you watch the national debates? The NDP spent 100% of their time bashing the Liberals. I expect the same thing this time.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-91738683171252730502008-09-05T08:31:00.000-04:002008-09-05T08:31:00.000-04:00Ottlib, Cannon's is the only "western seat" in Que...Ottlib, Cannon's is the only "western seat" in Quebec that the Tories have.<BR/><BR/>And no, the Tories don't need to get to 40% to get into serious seat totals in Quebec. The Bloc is down 12% there and the Tories are running neck to neck with them according to CROP and Leger.<BR/><BR/>The Conservatives are poised to gain an addtional 20 seats in Quebec if there numbers go up a couple of points and the Bloc goes down.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-50133028945425631252008-09-05T07:50:00.000-04:002008-09-05T07:50:00.000-04:00Pollsters are business people that are trying to e...Pollsters are business people that are trying to engineer a harper najority as he is moving the country in their favor....they like him and he likes them....they are screwing with people minds...they are all about making more money....there could not be such a difference in results from nanos and decima in such a short time ....I can just imagine what IpsosReid will be...he will have the cons at 50....they are all a bunch of crooks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-48602973143362180172008-09-04T23:53:00.000-04:002008-09-04T23:53:00.000-04:00Steve,We agree on more than you think.Steve,<BR/><BR/>We agree on more than you think.Tommhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06072854015300215347noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-69144869246789372832008-09-04T23:50:00.000-04:002008-09-04T23:50:00.000-04:00No, we don't agree, but you're fine.No, we don't agree, but you're fine.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-7290140310275414522008-09-04T23:48:00.000-04:002008-09-04T23:48:00.000-04:00Steve,Talkin to me?Steve,<BR/><BR/>Talkin to me?Tommhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06072854015300215347noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-66752357597433406692008-09-04T23:43:00.000-04:002008-09-04T23:43:00.000-04:00"Why the surge?Families are home from summer holid..."Why the surge?<BR/>Families are home from summer holidays.<BR/>Wall to wall coverage of the US election focusing on leadership."<BR/><BR/>Wow, now I understand. Thanks for the insightful comments. The weakness of the rationale, makes me more suspicious.<BR/><BR/>Wanted<BR/><BR/>New trolls, with half a clue, or some capacity to be at least slightly persuasive. Will train.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-49035646330326742182008-09-04T23:06:00.000-04:002008-09-04T23:06:00.000-04:00Ottlib,We'll get a chance to watch it play out.Ottlib,<BR/><BR/>We'll get a chance to watch it play out.Tommhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06072854015300215347noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-38182781395846264512008-09-04T22:58:00.000-04:002008-09-04T22:58:00.000-04:00So the Leger poll essentially mimics what the Crop...So the Leger poll essentially mimics what the Crop poll indicated a few days ago.<BR/><BR/>The level of support for the Conservatives is not nearly enough for them to take enough seats to win a majority. For them to do that they need to be above 40% in Quebec.<BR/><BR/>It is not going to happen. No sitting government has ever grown its support in Quebec by double digits over the course of an election campaign.<BR/><BR/>As well, they are sitting at 50% in the Quebec City Region. Like their national numbers are heavily weighted by Albera their Quebec numbers are heavily weighted by one compact region.<BR/><BR/>So the upshot is they may pick up a half-a-dozen seats in the Quebec City region but they can probably say goodbye to Lawrence Cannon and the other seats in the western part of the province. As well, it looks like they will be saying goodbye to many of their seats in the Maritimes.<BR/><BR/>Their level of support in BC allows them to hang on to what they have now and that is about it.<BR/><BR/>So that leaves Ontario. As Steve has pointed out, estimates indicated by some of the recent polls are suspect because they tend to run counter to what is happening on the ground. They could reflect reality but it is doubtful. We will have to wait and see.<BR/><BR/>As for the mythical internal party polls it is always fun to hear people claim they are different from the public polls. Having been on the inside I can say that the differences between public and internal polls are not that big and I will remind everybody that when Stephen Harper decided he wanted an election the public polls were saying he was trailing the Liberals by a point or two. So, the polls that he was looking at when he made the decision to have an election were probably saying much the same thing.ottlibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12695135535019042279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-13706252928071212182008-09-04T22:42:00.000-04:002008-09-04T22:42:00.000-04:00ottlib,Interesting comment.I certainly think that ...ottlib,<BR/><BR/>Interesting comment.<BR/><BR/>I certainly think that two things could happen:<BR/><BR/>Firstly that if the CPC is too strong (especially in Ontario), there may be a "scary" trend back to the LPC when the media talks majority. <BR/><BR/>Secondly, if Dion does not do well I think there will be what pollsters call a "dead cat bounce" for the LPC. A sympathy or party vote as a leadership backlash.<BR/><BR/>The CPC should stay away from negative advertising if they can, let the LPC look like the 12 angry men for a change.Tommhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06072854015300215347noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-8642724841615490062008-09-04T22:33:00.000-04:002008-09-04T22:33:00.000-04:00"For this reason we have seen many elections provi..."For this reason we have seen many elections provincial and federal, where the party trailing in the polls at the beginning of the election end up winning the election."<BR/><BR/>More interestingly, in every election in the past 30 years, except for the 2000 election, the party in government has always lost support to its main opposition during the course of the election campaign.<BR/><BR/>All governments have a record to defend and all governments offend more than one sector of society during its tenure. That fact is brought into focus during a campaign and it costs the party in government.<BR/><BR/>I suspect the same thing will happen this time around so Mr. Harper will be hard pressed to hang onto government let alone gain a majority.ottlibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12695135535019042279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-19684504260914848632008-09-04T22:26:00.000-04:002008-09-04T22:26:00.000-04:00Steve,None of this is good for the LPC. They get ...Steve,<BR/><BR/>None of this is good for the LPC. <BR/><BR/>They get much of the maritimes because of Danny threatening his own party and the CPC only putting in a token effort. The CPC sweeps the prairies. They take most of BC and take a bite out of the side of the BQ in rural/suburban Quebec.<BR/><BR/>Rural/suburban Ontario?<BR/><BR/>The NDP is focuessed only on Harper and are ignoring the Liberals. After two weeks into the campaign, we will know if this is a rout if the LPC starts attacking the NDP in an attempt to save the furniture. <BR/><BR/>Chantal Hebert tonight said the first week is critical for Dion. Well let's see if he comes out stridently, confidently, and with bags of ideas and policies that Canadians buy into.Tommhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06072854015300215347noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-36856760883216012572008-09-04T22:17:00.000-04:002008-09-04T22:17:00.000-04:00I'm surprised nobody has made mention of the fact ...I'm surprised nobody has made mention of the fact that every time the Conservatives spend a small fortune on advertising, the polls seem to follow immediately and I believe have always had a modest increase for Harpers numbers. This is what the fifth or sixth time the cons have launched advertising campaigns, usually slandering Stephane Dion personally or his leadership. The most recent bombardment started with all those 10%er flyers (which wouldn't surprise me if that was over spent as well) and a long summer of big government cash give always. Each time we see these increase in the polls they are always short lived, Canadians after some thought have always been more intelligent then they are given credit for. For this reason we have seen many elections provincial and federal, where the party trailing in the polls at the beginning of the election end up winning the election. I still think that this election is far more important then most Canadians believe, however if the masses start to see the statistics on which party can guide them through tough economic times, and which party truly does have the best solution for climate change and rising fuel cost, which party has the best team to deal with world diplomacy, trade expansion, health care and so on and so forth. This election could very rapidly change the speed at which the Liberal party GAINS BACK the support they once had!Frankly Canadianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09939737123658813199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-39857267048458137512008-09-04T21:02:00.000-04:002008-09-04T21:02:00.000-04:00I did think the Liberal spokesperson did a good jo...I did think the Liberal spokesperson did a good job on CBC National tonight. He didn't shy from the polls, and even complimented the pollster in this case (seemed almost a sly slam at other "unreliable" pollsters without actually saying that). He alluded to the fact that some other polls showed the race much tighter, but only in passing - didn't dwell on it defensively. He also explained that elections can change the dynamic, and he felt the Liberals needed to come out of the gate strong.<BR/><BR/>But he came across as well-spoken and calm and confident without arrogance.<BR/><BR/>I think the economic news is only going to get worse, unfortunately. Looks like the US is about to hit another negative tipping point. I am sure that will only exacerbate things here.<BR/><BR/>Liberals had better not hand the economic argument over, because it could quickly overtake the other issues no matter what the polls say today about what is on voter's minds.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-21218479502751470962008-09-04T20:56:00.000-04:002008-09-04T20:56:00.000-04:00I think that there is a wide spread in the Ontario...I think that there is a wide spread in the Ontario results due to many people worried we are heading into a deep recession. People are worried. Unfortunately I think they will vote Conservative, remember this is province that voted Mike Harris into two large majorities, and we change our minds quickly. It is a sure thing that most Albertan will vote Conservative every single time they vote (this despite them saying that Ontarian blindly vote Liberal). In Ontario in 1990 Bob Rae's NDP were polling 3rd at the start of the election campaign and won a majority. Five years later Harris' Conservatives were polling 3rd at the start of the election campaign and won a huge majority. At the moment I think that Ontarians are leaning Conservative. But don't be too worried as the people of this provice will actually be assessing the parties, candidates and platforms during the campaign, unlike some other areas where twenty years ago they decided how they would vote in this election.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-12463107596697705912008-09-04T20:30:00.000-04:002008-09-04T20:30:00.000-04:00Why the surge?Families are home from summer holida...Why the surge?<BR/>Families are home from summer holidays.<BR/>Wall to wall coverage of the US election focusing on leadership.wilsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03589410224972050999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-59678151433943600062008-09-04T20:16:00.000-04:002008-09-04T20:16:00.000-04:00"Believe it or not, had there been a clean break f..."Believe it or not, had there been a clean break from the Chretien era, I suspect things would be quite different now."<BR/><BR/>I'm not so sure about this. Imagine the hatchet job that would have happened to Ignatieff or Rae. I tend to think Dion has weathered the CPC character assassination that was going to happen to whoever won better than anyone else would have. Of course there is no way of knowing that ... just a hunch.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-85382113757293650562008-09-04T20:01:00.000-04:002008-09-04T20:01:00.000-04:00So, you are discounting the polls from people with...<I>So, you are discounting the polls from people with the track record?</I><BR/><BR/>Hell, no. I dont' know one polling firm from another, and have no idea what is their political leaning. I don't know for sure who will win the next election, but have a pretty good idea.<BR/><BR/>I know why I stopped voting Liberal, and why some Liberals are not planning to do so in the next election (or at least, so they say, which may be quite a different thing).<BR/><BR/>Believe it or not, had there been a clean break from the Chretien era, I suspect things would be quite different now.Möbiushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11851148006420274055noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-47566671089407005542008-09-04T19:45:00.000-04:002008-09-04T19:45:00.000-04:00ottlibYes, that will be interesting, particularly ...ottlib<BR/><BR/>Yes, that will be interesting, particularly Decima. In the last week of their last three week average, they had the Liberals up a staggering 18% in Ontario, so let's see...<BR/><BR/>I don't trust Ipsos either, and I'll use the fact they were off by 7% nationally last election, 11% in 2004, as ample evidence for a heavy dose of scepticism.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-62964650542519549722008-09-04T19:40:00.000-04:002008-09-04T19:40:00.000-04:00Incidentally, Decima is due to publish a poll toni...Incidentally, Decima is due to publish a poll tonight. They usually publish on a Thursday.<BR/><BR/>Ipsos-Reid is due tomorrow.<BR/><BR/>Decima had the Liberals with a slight lead last week. It will be interesting to see this week's estimates. If they have moved significantly then we can begin to believe these other polls.<BR/><BR/>I can almost guarantee Ipsos will publish estimates showing a jump in Conservative support. I was suspicious of their last poll which showed a virtual tie. It would not be the first time a polling company has published a poll understating the support for one party only to publish another poll showing a big jump to give the impression of momentum.ottlibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12695135535019042279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-77787457397842027462008-09-04T19:30:00.000-04:002008-09-04T19:30:00.000-04:00ottlibThe last poll for this company was done in J...ottlib<BR/><BR/>The last poll for this company was done in July. In that poll, the Libs were one up in Ontario, so this means a full 7% rise for the Cons since then. I'm sorry, but the Cons with 43% in Ontario doesn't seem right.<BR/><BR/>mobius<BR/><BR/>So, you are discounting the polls from people with the track record?Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-33516432348260252912008-09-04T19:26:00.000-04:002008-09-04T19:26:00.000-04:00Steve:This is a one off poll and we do not have an...Steve:<BR/><BR/>This is a one off poll and we do not have any other polls by this company to compare it with so the MOEs are not nearly as useful.<BR/><BR/>That is another reason why I trust Decima and Nanos more. They publish polls using the same methodology over a long period of time.<BR/><BR/>Although it is very imperfect it gives us some idea of a trend. Trying to discern a trend by looking at different one-off polls from different polling companies is not possible as they use different methodologies.<BR/><BR/>The polls by SC, Environics and Angus-Reid have given estimates that seem to be counter-intuitive to what is happening in the country. I cannot say that anything has happened that would cause the Conservatives support to move like these polls seem to be indicating.<BR/><BR/>I could understand a couple of points as a result of the incumpant advantage but as you say 22 points in Ontario in a week. Something is fishy.ottlibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12695135535019042279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-6120291606946600702008-09-04T19:22:00.000-04:002008-09-04T19:22:00.000-04:00Well, since you asked, while Harper's CPC has ...Well, since you asked, while Harper's CPC has difficulty moving ahead of the LPC in voting support due to his naturally prickly personality, Dion is a complete dud.<BR/><BR/>If not for him, the CPC would be in trouble.<BR/><BR/>The "Green Shift" is a huge political error, hence the last minute back-tracking. You have leaders in waiting stabbing the leader in the back. It all adds up to either a CPC minority or majority.<BR/><BR/>Some silly commentary in the G&M today was attempting to compare this to a Kim Campbell vs, Chretien battle, ignoring the fact that Mulroney's heir was never going to win an election, and Chretien had a shred of political sense.<BR/><BR/>Feel free to dismiss my opinions, as usual, but keep in mind I voted for the LPC several times in the Chretien era.Möbiushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11851148006420274055noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-11782737966065550882008-09-04T19:15:00.000-04:002008-09-04T19:15:00.000-04:00ottlibI was referring to the MOE's for the regiona...ottlib<BR/><BR/>I was referring to the MOE's for the regionals. Typically, most national polls have a 5% MOE for Ontario, this one is 3%, for Quebec 6-7%, this one 5%.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.com