tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post6841847404784476802..comments2023-10-22T09:18:16.885-04:00Comments on Far and Wide: Deadheat?Steve Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-22797844647576839662008-01-13T13:38:00.000-05:002008-01-13T13:38:00.000-05:00Huh? Isn't it against the law or something to vot...Huh? Isn't it against the law or something to vote anything but Conservative in Alberta?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-4153088292361530782008-01-13T03:05:00.000-05:002008-01-13T03:05:00.000-05:00While Alberta demographics have changed drasticall...While Alberta demographics have changed drastically over the past 4-5 years, due to the influx of new Canadians and easterners, it would be a huge leap of faith to think that it could result in a 10% jump in Liberal support. So does that make the CONs at 50% now?<BR/>Edmonton remains potentially ripe territory, in 2-3 ridings. But the rest is dreamsville.<BR/>However, perhaps Stelmach's troubles -- and he is suffering bad press of late, with the Chandler thing and now the 'stolen personality' joke making the rounds -- is confusing the respondents when they give their answer. A provincial election is in the offing, and its apparent that if you want a different government, the only choice at this time is Taft's Liberals.burlivespipehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18048415779214466831noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-48660645800184718852008-01-12T20:25:00.000-05:002008-01-12T20:25:00.000-05:00"Do you think that maybe Conservative supporters l..."Do you think that maybe Conservative supporters like Ipsos-Reid realize that and would like to see an election before that erosion really begins to take hold?"<BR/><BR/>In the alternative, if the numbers are actually turning to the liberals (though I too do not accept the Alberta numbers - and even if they are true, as soon as Albertans realize the results of their little protest they will run back to Harper) - IR actually believes this is a good time for Dion to go, and wants to push the notion Dion is being opportunistic and hypocritical by doing so now after failing to bring Harper down a couple of months ago.Gaylehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08112657859825911939noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-34019559434661942822008-01-12T20:13:00.000-05:002008-01-12T20:13:00.000-05:00Though these numbers look good on the surface for ...Though these numbers look good on the surface for the Liberals, two things need to be considered: 1) It's Ipsos-Reid, people. C'mon. 2) It appears that most of the Liberal increase comes from a rebound in Quebec (plausible) and a surge in Alberta (duhhuhuhh...no, Ipsos, I don't think so). <BR/><BR/>Even assuming that these numbers were the real deal, the Alberta surge would amount to no more than 2 or 3 extra seats. The Ontario numbers are stagnant, while the Quebec rebound (the most significant trend in this poll) could easily net an extra 15 seats for the Liberals (but almost entirely at the expense of the Bloc). <BR/><BR/>If I were Stephane Dion, I don't think I'd go out of my way to trigger the government's collapse based solely on a single poll telling me that the prospect of a razor-thin Liberal minority is <I>somewhat</I> probable - especially given that a poll released earlier this week states that support levels are pretty much where they were on election day in 2006.<BR/><BR/>Seriously, all polling outfits except for SES should be banned from publishing outside of an election period. Any party leader who pledges to crack down on pollsters has my vote ;)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-53425217561336628612008-01-12T19:00:00.000-05:002008-01-12T19:00:00.000-05:00ottlibThat statement is suspicious, particularly w...ottlib<BR/><BR/>That statement is suspicious, particularly when his own numbers show a very tight race in Ontario. Foolish is the last word to use, and yet he does....Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-80913977856731516332008-01-12T18:53:00.000-05:002008-01-12T18:53:00.000-05:00"...adding that the Grits would be "foolish" not t..."...adding that the Grits would be "foolish" not to try and trigger an election."<BR/><BR/>I found that statement very interesting. As you say Steve it does sound like Liberal baiting.<BR/><BR/>In actual fact the Liberals would be foolish to trigger an election at the moment.<BR/><BR/>In all likelyhood Conservative support will continue to gradually erode. This will be particularly true if the economic slowdown the experts are predicting comes to pass.<BR/><BR/>Do you think that maybe Conservative supporters like Ipsos-Reid realize that and would like to see an election before that erosion really begins to take hold?ottlibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12695135535019042279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-83776705164716325752008-01-12T18:25:00.001-05:002008-01-12T18:25:00.001-05:00"Do a poll of 1000 representative Albertans before..."Do a poll of 1000 representative Albertans before such claims are even considered...never mind actually being made. This result is suspect given the usual small sample size in Alberta for such national polls."<BR/><BR/>Bingo! Why publish results that are inherently flawed, based on your own measurements. Pretty embarassing to have Bricker take these bogus numbers, then extrapolate them using flawed logic. Mickey mouse if you ask me.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-75497392613072849362008-01-12T17:19:00.000-05:002008-01-12T17:19:00.000-05:00Speaking as an Albertan, and a Dion and Stelmach s...Speaking as an Albertan, and a Dion and Stelmach supporter, I think the Ipsos numbers are way off. And blaming Stelmach's response to the Royalty Review is ludicrous.<BR/><BR/>Stelmach got a 10 point positive bounce in Alberta when he released his royalty response in late October.<BR/><BR/>The Calgary media and elites push the perceptions and they tend to think that Calgary is Alberta. they have too much sway with the national media so they don't look at the entire province to get a take on what is happening here. <BR/><BR/>They all seem to get suckered into believing Alberta is a monoculture of cowboys, roughnecks and rednecks. Nothing could be farther from the truth. <BR/><BR/>Do a poll of 1000 representative Albertans before such claims are even considered...never mind actually being made. This result is suspect given the usual small sample size in Alberta for such national polls.kenchapmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11384045981190810115noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-30018700262237645752008-01-12T15:46:00.000-05:002008-01-12T15:46:00.000-05:00Is there a person on earth that believes the Libs ...<I>Is there a person on earth that believes the Libs have jumped 20 points in Alberta?</I><BR/><BR/>Why not? Albertans are sensible people. ;)Ti-Guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06620550471437012866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-81967215410684027682008-01-12T14:49:00.000-05:002008-01-12T14:49:00.000-05:00scottWhat I find funny, these guys are the pros an...scott<BR/><BR/>What I find funny, these guys are the pros and yet they fail to keep the margin of error in mind. Bricker knows better than to project those Alberta numbers as real, and his analysis to explain it is so weak, it's actually laughable. Don't bother with the regionals, if the MOE is that high, and certainly don't try to tell us some definitive, using shaky numbers. Is there a person on earth that believes the Libs have jumped 20 points in Alberta?Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-9354758356776343242008-01-12T14:34:00.000-05:002008-01-12T14:34:00.000-05:00Uh.. that wasn't a typo, was it? 30% in Alberta, f...Uh.. that wasn't a typo, was it? 30% in Alberta, for the Liberals? CalgaryGrit (now in Toronto) would be ecstatic if that were somehow true. <BR/><BR/>I'll have to say though, that as much as some of us were thinking Ipsos polling was an outlier when showing big Conservative leads as other polling companies showed dead heats, I just can't think that Stelmach would have that much of a negative effect on Con. polling numbers. I mean, negative publicity for threatening to sue a blogger only goes so far ;) I have a hard time believing that this many people in Alberta has seen the light and wants to do something about GHG emissions, which is about the only other issue I can think of that might spur this.Oxford County Liberalshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12181314055142726735noreply@blogger.com