tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post815639659620186521..comments2023-10-22T09:18:16.885-04:00Comments on Far and Wide: New Ipsos Reid PollSteve Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-61244513274287798142007-04-30T07:49:00.000-04:002007-04-30T07:49:00.000-04:00I don't think you can really compare polls of diff...I don't think you can really compare polls of different companies in between elections as each one has a different methodology. What you have to look at is what direction the movement is in. Also the numbers from all the polling companies will begin to converge around the second week of an election since when there is a high undecided vote and people are less firm in their intentions any change in the question can change the answers. As people become more firm in their preferences, then there is less variance. I've actually found Ipsos to generally be pretty accurate on the final results although they do in between elections tend to put the Tories a bit on the high side.Monkey Loves to Fighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05122291567543761919noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-68533698180189265892007-04-28T12:28:00.000-04:002007-04-28T12:28:00.000-04:00ottlibI'm surprised Bricker tried to tie the poll ...ottlib<BR/><BR/>I'm surprised Bricker tried to tie the poll into the Afghanistan debate:<BR/><BR/>Bricker said a lack of significant movement in this week’s national numbers from last week’s results suggests the political uproar in Ottawa over what and when the Conservative government knew about the alleged torture of prisoners of war in Afghanistan is not resonating with most Canadians.<BR/><BR/>As I stated earlier, this story only went nuclear on Thursday, which is when the polling ended, so I don't see how he can draw the above conclusion.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-11678269542657541232007-04-28T12:03:00.000-04:002007-04-28T12:03:00.000-04:00Darryl Bricker is the poster child I hold up when ...Darryl Bricker is the poster child I hold up when people ask me why I dislike polls and pollsters.<BR/><BR/>Half of the time the methodology of the poll is suspect, to say the least, and the other half of the time the analysis by the pollster is superficial. (and I am being generous by characterizing it like that.)<BR/><BR/>What Mr. Bricker seems to have forgotten (willfully) is up until Wednesday afternoon the only media talking about the Afghan detainee story was Bell Globe Media. It was well toward the end of interviewing for this poll that the story became front-page news in all media.<BR/><BR/>As well, the polling ended well before Canadians saw David Suzuki call the Conservative Green Plan a "sham" on all of the television networks and it all of the papers.<BR/><BR/>Mr. Suzuki is well respected amongst Canadians who do not live and breath politics and is perceived as a non-partisan defender of the environment. When he is seen using such stark language about a government initiative it is going to have an impact, especially when he has not been known to do such things in the past.<BR/><BR/>So Mr. Bricker had better begin thinking about what he is going to say for his next poll, which will be the one that shows the impact of this last week.ottlibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12695135535019042279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-83098447687662474342007-04-28T11:29:00.000-04:002007-04-28T11:29:00.000-04:00"The ipsos poll is always a sham."Even the way the..."The ipsos poll is always a sham."<BR/><BR/>Even the way they framed this poll is suspicious, using the election results as backdrop, instead of the last poll for trends. It makes it seem like Harper is up, when he clearly isn't. I put Ipsos at the bottom, in terms of objective accuracy.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-21635578318408496652007-04-28T11:28:00.000-04:002007-04-28T11:28:00.000-04:00This poll is obviously a sham. Now where were we? ...This poll is obviously a sham. Now where were we? Right... "Time to match the rhetoric with action fellas. BRING THEM DOWN."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-85384201494334811462007-04-28T10:08:00.000-04:002007-04-28T10:08:00.000-04:00I agree with Candy....The ipsos poll is always a s...I agree with Candy....The ipsos poll is always a sham...They sometimes put out a low tory number but you can bet the next week they will come out with a whopper how the cons have soared..It is a laugh.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-84963918513411177972007-04-28T10:01:00.000-04:002007-04-28T10:01:00.000-04:00Again, I guess we'll have to wait for SES to compa...Again, I guess we'll have to wait for SES to compare.<BR/><BR/>If the Conservs still remain in 36 to 38 territory after this week - Canada is sleeping.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-32979608502395185302007-04-28T00:26:00.000-04:002007-04-28T00:26:00.000-04:00It is pollus interuptus - thinking that a poll on ...It is pollus interuptus - thinking that a poll on the treatment of detainees as an issue is settled on Thursday of th eweek it is discovered is ignorance or hubris. Hey - it may well be both!<BR/><BR/>This is a serious complex issue that takes time to sink in - but sink in it will.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-30188942723322194742007-04-28T00:18:00.000-04:002007-04-28T00:18:00.000-04:00The British Columbia numbers are simply due to a l...The British Columbia numbers are simply due to a large margin of error. With the regional numbers I only look at the Ontario and Quebec numbers as the samples are too small in all other regions. With only 100 interviews, that gives a margin of error of +/-10% so the Tories probably fall somewhere between the two numbers.<BR/><BR/>As for the fallout from this week, I certainly cannot see it being good for the Tories, but it really depends on how much people are paying attention.Monkey Loves to Fighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05122291567543761919noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-74539261538989211982007-04-27T23:15:00.000-04:002007-04-27T23:15:00.000-04:00knb"They may just be putting themselves out of bus...knb<BR/><BR/>"They may just be putting themselves out of business."<BR/><BR/>How can you just throw out that B.C. number and expect anyone to take you seriously? You will also notice that Green support SURGED in Alberta. <BR/><BR/>On the national numbers, it might be noteworthy that the gap between the Cons and Libs went from 10% in the last poll to 7% in this one, which is in line with other erosion polling. Having said that, this poll really doesn't digest the fallout from this week, given the dates.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-36133882026817957282007-04-27T22:53:00.000-04:002007-04-27T22:53:00.000-04:00Well, if there ever was proof to explain how inacc...Well, if there ever was proof to explain how inaccurate these polls are, specifically Ipsos, this is it.<BR/><BR/>They are telling us in a week that the con's put out their Environment Plan, that their numbers soared in BC? I'm laughing as I'm typing.<BR/><BR/>I don't know how or why, but it seems that we don't digest things until a couple of days later. Afghanistan and the Environment are going to hit a bit over the weekend and not go away next week. <BR/><BR/>Ipsos is premature with it's findings, as usual, and imo, that will be shown next week.<BR/><BR/>Always the defenders of the con's is Ipsos. They may just be putting themselves out of business.Karenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04291881352139075405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-20484130155781323472007-04-27T22:20:00.000-04:002007-04-27T22:20:00.000-04:00hi!!!you blog very special!!!!hi!!!you blog very special!!!!candyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15960879876688752797noreply@blogger.com