tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post8574099746547503606..comments2023-10-22T09:18:16.885-04:00Comments on Far and Wide: No Majority In The BudgetSteve Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-32492558485915960492007-03-22T18:44:00.000-04:002007-03-22T18:44:00.000-04:00Steve V - I am also tentative on seat losses anywh...Steve V - I am also tentative on seat losses anywhere as we don't know when the election will be and what the driving issue will be. The Canadian Wheat Board certainly could hurt them, although I would say more so in Manitoba than Saskatchewan (but Saskatchewan too) since it is more popular there, never mind it tends to be farmers further North who most supportive of it while farmers near the US border generally support the Tory plan. <BR/><BR/>The problem with Saskatchewan is there are no purely urban ridings, all ridings include a large chunk of rural areas and that is the main reason Saskatchewan went so heavily conservative. The Tories actually lost most of the polls in Regina and the central parts of Saskatoon last election, but their massive majorities in the rural sections allowed them to take the ridings. Had Ontario cities such as London, Kitchener, and Hamilton been carved into ridings that were half rural and half urban, the Conservatives likely would have won them too. Thankfully we only have a handful of such ridings.Monkey Loves to Fighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05122291567543761919noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-82532601737649965912007-03-22T11:24:00.000-04:002007-03-22T11:24:00.000-04:00"however their margins of victory were a bit large..."however their margins of victory were a bit larger there."<BR/><BR/>Miles, point taken. You will notice I was tentative in actual seat lose, although it could put a couple up for grabs. The Wheat Board is another angle that could work in concert with the budget.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-700932413345517572007-03-21T23:45:00.000-04:002007-03-21T23:45:00.000-04:00I am not suggesting it won't hurt them in Saskatch...I am not suggesting it won't hurt them in Saskatchewan, however their margins of victory were a bit larger there. In addition former Saskatchewan finance minister Janice McKinnon came out in support of the equalization changes. Still I think messing with equalization is always risky no matter what one does since you can never create one that benefits every province, it is not possible. And even though few understand the fine details of how it works, if the province is getting a bad deal, it will hurt.Monkey Loves to Fighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05122291567543761919noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-28354899385895161152007-03-21T22:00:00.000-04:002007-03-21T22:00:00.000-04:00milesBuckdog had some interesting commentary from ...miles<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://buckdogpolitics.blogspot.com/2007/03/harper-plays-word-dinkery-with.html" REL="nofollow">Buckdog</A> had some interesting commentary from Saskatchewan newspapers:<BR/><BR/>"He broke his promise to Saskatchewan. He ignored the warnings of conservative MPs concerned that breaking that promise would cause "no end of political difficulty during the next election"<BR/>Editorial<BR/>Regina Leader Post<BR/>Mar. 20, 2007<BR/><BR/>"Even Saskatchewan Party Leader Brad Wall - who will never be viewed by Conservatives as 'unfriendly' said he was "upset and that the people of the province will be as well"<BR/>Murray Mandryk<BR/>Regina Leader Post<BR/>Mar. 20, 2007Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-74156682923227254762007-03-21T21:51:00.000-04:002007-03-21T21:51:00.000-04:00I agree this won't be good news for the Tories in ...I agree this won't be good news for the Tories in Atlantic Canada, especially Newfoundland & Labrador. I don't think they will lose all 9 seats there simply because a few they won by huge margins. Still there chances of gains have greatly diminished. New Brunswick is probably the province that they will experience the least in negative fallout, Nova Scotia somewhere in between, and Newfoundland & Labrador being the most serious. Saskatchewan might result in losing a few seats, but since Lorne Calvert is not very popular it will be less damaging than Atlantic Canada. British Columbia is a complete wild card so who knows and we won't know until about a week before the election. Ontario is also tough to say but I cannot see the Tories falling below 20 seats there, but neither can I see them going over 60 seats, likely not even 50 seats.Monkey Loves to Fighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05122291567543761919noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-67761852668088192562007-03-21T19:04:00.000-04:002007-03-21T19:04:00.000-04:00Another point about May. That race is bound to be...Another point about May. That race is bound to be high-profile, which means the lines of attack may resonate beyond the actual riding. If May hammers MacKay, with this budget as a pretext, it could be quite effective.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-16549405219711418282007-03-21T18:58:00.000-04:002007-03-21T18:58:00.000-04:00Acting as Condi Rice's consort.Acting as Condi Rice's consort.ottlibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12695135535019042279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-3803732549956515962007-03-21T18:10:00.000-04:002007-03-21T18:10:00.000-04:00Thanks Scotian!I was actually going to mention May...Thanks Scotian!<BR/><BR/>I was actually going to mention May's chances, because it would seem to give her a powerful argument. Where was Peter MacKay, in standing up for Nova Scotia?Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-18833049015511933502007-03-21T17:19:00.000-04:002007-03-21T17:19:00.000-04:00Steve V:"Obviously, Quebec is happy and it isn’t r...Steve V:<BR/><BR/>"Obviously, Quebec is happy and it isn’t reasonable to conclude it will help Tory fortunes next election."<BR/><BR/>This is the second sentence of the second paragraph of your post; and I think by reading it in context you miswrote it. Would I be correct in presuming that this was what you meant? "Obviously, Quebec is happy and it isn’t UNreasonable to conclude it will help Tory fortunes next election." If so, you might want to make the edit, otherwise you could confuse some people and give trolls a hook to hang on to. Just a thought.<BR/><BR/>As to the body of the post itself, strikes me as a reasonable assessment of the way this budget appears to be going over in the country and the potential impact on votes. The only overarching theme of this budget was “I want to buy your votes for a majority, but I won't tell you what my overall vision for economics as well as social agenda are." and I don't think that is enough for Harper to get his majority. I also agree with you on how this appears to be going down in my neck of the country, as well as it is hurting the CPC's future, and this could be yet another thing to help May dethrone MacKay in his riding. That riding I do not think is as safe for him as some would like to believe it is based on rumblings I've been hearing locally over the last year or so. <BR/><BR/>We shall see.Scotianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06284856315992405261noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-29079480332147945382007-03-21T15:10:00.000-04:002007-03-21T15:10:00.000-04:00oopsie, looks like the clock has to stop now. The...oopsie, looks like the clock has to stop now. The CPC are getting cold feet on thier CAA, bill c30Zorpheoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09618889126077232837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-56045996471044187852007-03-21T13:41:00.000-04:002007-03-21T13:41:00.000-04:00lol. I just wrote the snide post, Wayne and Scott...lol. I just wrote the snide post, Wayne and Scott did the actual countdown link.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-28734483833956216042007-03-21T13:31:00.000-04:002007-03-21T13:31:00.000-04:00Hey Steve,off topic hereYou're the one who made th...Hey Steve,<BR/><BR/>off topic here<BR/><BR/>You're the one who made the CPC Clean Air count down clock, right?<BR/><BR/>Well I was think you might want to make a second clock that uses Friedman Units as the measurement of time, or F-U's for short, make it with six to eight digits.<BR/><BR/>37.642105 FU's till,...Zorpheoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09618889126077232837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-2028423423737882832007-03-21T13:00:00.000-04:002007-03-21T13:00:00.000-04:00Harper could still see some benefit if the ADQ doe...Harper could still see some benefit if the ADQ does well, I'm not convinced his prospects are completely tied to Charest's survival.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-59970255949166393862007-03-21T12:29:00.000-04:002007-03-21T12:29:00.000-04:00But Quebec is not happy, or at least Charest is st...But Quebec is not happy, or at least Charest is still in deep doo doo according to the latest polls (see CTV). If the Quebec provincial election blows up in Harper's face, then no majority and no Fed election (sez I).bigcitylibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05081538803991095825noreply@blogger.com