tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post2218693445572258406..comments2023-10-22T09:18:16.885-04:00Comments on Far and Wide: Oilsands And Selective "Upsides"Steve Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-58589623462376402252012-02-21T15:34:20.691-05:002012-02-21T15:34:20.691-05:00Sorry, but I haven't really heard anyone dispu...Sorry, but I haven't really heard anyone dispute the fact that commodity prices, oil being the main one, and our dollar are tethered. Yes, the American dollar obviously plays a factor, but it's just ONE factor, you're completely disregarding the impact of commodity prices on our dollar.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-75252615541127507892012-02-21T15:29:47.687-05:002012-02-21T15:29:47.687-05:00"Our dollar is more tied to oil than at any t..."Our dollar is more tied to oil than at any time in our history. . ."<br /><br />The problem with indentifying a corrolation is that it fails to explain any CAUSATION.<br /><br />Oil prices and the CDN dollar often move in lockstep with each other, but an increase in the oil price DOES NOT CAUSE the increase in the dollar. They are both CAUSED by the fluctuating (read: devaluing) of the American dollar.<br /><br />The US dollar has dropped significantly since 2001 against all major world currencies. Since<br />crude is priced in US dollars it makes perfect sense why "oil goes up, our dollar rises, oil drops, [our dollar drops] as well".<br /><br />Our domestic oil production affect on our exchange rate is like a large boulder rolling into the ocean when the tides are changing.Frungerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02043359335102247574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-42115010486706653742012-02-21T12:59:22.801-05:002012-02-21T12:59:22.801-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.sharonapple88https://www.blogger.com/profile/11149226422042041129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-53036903153270371432012-02-21T12:29:49.764-05:002012-02-21T12:29:49.764-05:00"concluding that oilsands development causes ..."concluding that oilsands development causes job josses due to exchange rate increases is a stretch."<br /><br />Not only is not a stretch, it's a very simply casual relationship. Our dollar is more tied to oil than at any time in our history, a higher dollar is counter to our manufacturing base, so higher oil, higher dollar, higher risk of job loss in manufacturing. I don't really see anything beyond some common sense here to be honest.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-23155183910964281022012-02-21T10:55:10.766-05:002012-02-21T10:55:10.766-05:00I still think that Trudeau's NEP was not as ba...<i>I still think that Trudeau's NEP was not as bad as they say. I must be alone.</i><br /><br />You're not alone. Texas' oil industry was hit hard just the same as Alberta's in the early 80's, and their economy lost billions too. But Texas had no NEP to blame. There were other, much larger factors to the 80's oil bust that Alberta's Conservatives like to ignore, because the truth goes against their narrative.<br /><br />Don't get me wrong, the NEP was a way for Ottawa to drill into Alberta's wallet, but it was hardly the be-all and end-all that they claim it to be. More like throwing salt into an open wound, rather than the cause of the laceration.Tof KWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15756310841374198056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-45315100768356566852012-02-21T10:33:41.646-05:002012-02-21T10:33:41.646-05:00I noticed that also every time the dollar goes up ...I noticed that also every time the dollar goes up the price of oil went up. When he dollar was $.60 or $.70, was our gas that cheap? I still think that Trudeau's NEP was not as bad as they say. I must be alone.A Eliz.https://www.blogger.com/profile/11088834823455226692noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-82041169137290397362012-02-21T09:59:55.332-05:002012-02-21T09:59:55.332-05:00I understand the point you are making, and its a t...I understand the point you are making, and its a thoughtful point but using the exchange rate as a counter argument to oilsands develpment is a little tricky.<br /><br />A(oilsands)=B(> exchng rate) & B=C(job losses) therefore A=C.<br /><br />It works in mathmatics, but the relationships between these factors are not exclusive and concluding that oilsands development causes job josses due to exchange rate increases is a stretch. <br /><br />We KNOW there are tangible domestic benefits to development and we KNOW that we have control over that developement. We also KNOW that exchange rate fluctuations affect our ability to compete for manufacturing jobs but we don't have a policy of trying to manage that exchange rate, if we could even do it successfully(which we can't) and the Bank of Canada doesn't do it.<br />There are other better ways to increase productivity in manufacturing in Canada and it starts and ends with better managing of outrageous union demands. See what not to do by checking out Quebec's competetive (dis)advantage.Frungerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02043359335102247574noreply@blogger.com