tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post6231139887924090684..comments2023-10-22T09:18:16.885-04:00Comments on Far and Wide: Fluke Or Foundation?Steve Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-56095965997867665142007-09-20T08:34:00.000-04:002007-09-20T08:34:00.000-04:00burl;)burl<BR/><BR/>;)Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-15237905686053073252007-09-20T03:56:00.000-04:002007-09-20T03:56:00.000-04:00You can check out my NDP hit list of potential rid...You can check out my NDP hit list of potential riding targets for an explanation of why I think the NDP's growth will be limited to Outremont. http://uncorrectedproofs.blogspot.com/2007/09/ndp-hit-list-in-quebec.htmluncorrectedproofshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03109254318080084549noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-6889838282288990632007-09-20T00:51:00.000-04:002007-09-20T00:51:00.000-04:00...."That being said, I believe you are too quick ......."That being said, I believe you are too quick to jump on Dion without giving him a reasonable chance to learn from his mistakes."<BR/><BR/>--This post is about the NDP, not Dion. -- Steve<BR/><BR/>Oops. Guess I was mixing this topic with about 6 of the previous 8 ones.burlivespipehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18048415779214466831noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-60678771680968908802007-09-19T20:04:00.000-04:002007-09-19T20:04:00.000-04:00lance said: "If so, what if the Liberal base was s...lance said: "If so, what if the Liberal base was so PO'ed at the obvious lack of effort, or the poll on Friday, or the subsequent blood-letting or that the CPC and Bloc who did vote, voted strategic?"<BR/><BR/>Liberals the victims of strategic voting??? LOL!!! I love it. The Libs finally get nailed by their own medicine are some are gonna complain about it. I guess that side of the grass doesn't look as green.northwestern_ladhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16833632861345350726noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-24779854292755294902007-09-19T15:38:00.000-04:002007-09-19T15:38:00.000-04:00"That being said, I believe you are too quick to j..."That being said, I believe you are too quick to jump on Dion without giving him a reasonable chance to learn from his mistakes."<BR/><BR/>This post is about the NDP, not Dion.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-7106047873419007542007-09-19T15:34:00.000-04:002007-09-19T15:34:00.000-04:00I'll agree with Lance (shock!) for once and sugges...I'll agree with Lance (shock!) for once and suggest that the dynamics of the by-election in Outremont deserves more cautious excavating. A 'hand-picked' candidate as opposed to a candidate chosen by the riding members, that could have caused a greater # of Liberal supporters to stay home or put their vote elsewhere. I'm not saying Mulcair couldn't win in a regular election (against Coulon), he most certainly has the profile and skill to do so. And I don't subscribe completely to the thoughts that a Cauchon or an Armour would have wiped the map with him, either.<BR/>That said, I believe the NdP are in a better position to cash in as oppose to 1990, but Edmonston's profile was pretty huge, and his margin of victory even bigger. I think what you are talking about at most is the NdP in the hunt for 3 ridings, changing the results in another 3... Which could seriously clip Liberal hopes, of course.<BR/>That being said, I believe you are too quick to jump on Dion without giving him a reasonable chance to learn from his mistakes. There is definitely too many old-timers who are stuck in the Trudeau-Turner-Chretien-Martin war mode...burlivespipehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18048415779214466831noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-30982874164354409502007-09-19T15:33:00.000-04:002007-09-19T15:33:00.000-04:00steve said, "unless you are actually saying all th...steve said, "unless you are actually saying all the difference would go to the other parties."<BR/><BR/>No, I'm saying that in a general election, the percentage of vote would have been different because the circumstances are different.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/>lancelancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14481248175442820597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-31778632564668065602007-09-19T15:07:00.000-04:002007-09-19T15:07:00.000-04:00seanThat sounds reasonable.sean<BR/><BR/>That sounds reasonable.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-46430034342617198862007-09-19T15:05:00.000-04:002007-09-19T15:05:00.000-04:00" If you're of the opinion that the Libs have lost..." If you're of the opinion that the Libs have lost Mtl, or the Bloc is history, or the NDP is a force, I can't convince you otherwise."<BR/><BR/>I'm not suggesting any of those things. The problem with your numbers, you say the NDP got out its base, well the polls show they actually picked up the Bloc voters and some from the Liberals, so your argument that only NDP people turned out doesn't make sense to me. If the turnout would have been higher, then the NDP vote would have been more than the 4K uptick you site, unless you are actually saying all the difference would go to the other parties.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-69163433174997895202007-09-19T14:51:00.000-04:002007-09-19T14:51:00.000-04:00I don't mean to belabour my point, Steve. If you'r...I don't mean to belabour my point, Steve. If you're of the opinion that the Libs have lost Mtl, or the Bloc is history, or the NDP is a force, I can't convince you otherwise. I can only look at the numbers and make observations, I live in Saskatchewan, not Quebec.<BR/><BR/>Let me throw some of your words back at you: "considering the fact that if you added on normal turnout % and ever single vote went Liberal, which is ludicrious, the NDP still wins."<BR/><BR/>Given the 17 thousand votes missing, would you admit the above is incorrect then? (meant to be funny, the Libs would have been at 25k :) )<BR/><BR/>If so, what if the Liberal base was so PO'ed at the obvious lack of effort, or the poll on Friday, or the subsequent blood-letting or that the CPC and Bloc who did vote, voted strategic?<BR/><BR/>The only thing that's obvious given the byelection is that everyone's base _but_ the NDP stayed home.<BR/><BR/>CPC down 3k<BR/>Lib down 7k<BR/>Bloc down 9k<BR/>NDP up 4k<BR/><BR/>I really don't see how you can say that this doesn't give the NDP an advantage. They got 400 _less_ votes than the Bloc in 2006.<BR/><BR/>Total fluke that will not be repeated except in another byelection.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/>lancelancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14481248175442820597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-54119505991993767752007-09-19T14:49:00.000-04:002007-09-19T14:49:00.000-04:00Its fun to dump on the NDP, come on everyone pile ...Its fun to dump on the NDP, come on everyone pile on!.<BR/><BR/>Anyways, the NDP mostly took their vote from the BQ, not the Liberals. So I would agree it is now a question of left/right and given the Liberals wishy-washy position on, well, everything the NDP should be the clear favourite (and was this time).<BR/><BR/>That being said, the NDP has been growing in Quebec over the past couple of elections. In 2006 over 300,000 votes came their way, which is (as Jack pointed out on CTV yesterday) more then they got from Sask and Manitoba combined (where they are more then established and viable).<BR/><BR/>So, adding in Monday's results, there is no reason why the NDP won't continue to grow and potentially win more seats and higher profile candidates in Quebec. All of those BQ voters who are also left leaning (apparently 10-18%, at least in Outremont) need somewhere to go. Since the Liberals can't seem to get their act/message together the NDP is doing and saying the right things at the right time.Sean S.https://www.blogger.com/profile/03144610271786881954noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-58128030616023169082007-09-19T14:20:00.000-04:002007-09-19T14:20:00.000-04:00lanceI don't agree with your assumption. Just bec...lance<BR/><BR/>I don't agree with your assumption. Just because turnout was low, that doesn't mean an advantage for the NDP, in fact previous demographics show the younger voter is less apt to vote in a by-election, which is the NDP's usual strength. I don't see turnout as indicative of any false story here.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-19658409173431795732007-09-19T14:07:00.000-04:002007-09-19T14:07:00.000-04:00Low voter turnout. 2006 Outremont stats: Total vot...Low voter turnout.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.elections.ca/scripts/OVR2006/25/5840.html" REL="nofollow"> 2006 Outremont stats:</A> Total votes: 40,875/67,253<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://enr.elections.ca/ElectoralDistricts_e.aspx?ed=1506" REL="nofollow">Byelection:</A> Total votes: 23,943/63,728<BR/><BR/>Difference is around 16/17k votes cast, Libs lost by 5k the other night.<BR/><BR/>I mean media coverage as in the national coverage. In a general election, it's on every night, it's on every blog, it's on every radio. It's in the air. The NDP don't get the same level of coverage and so their message gets lost in the noise.<BR/><BR/>None of that in a byelection so the ground game is _much_ more important. The NDP GOTV and combined with the low turnout where able to influence the percentage of vote.<BR/><BR/>Don't let the percentage fool you, it means nothing when total votes is about half of what it should be.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/>lancelancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14481248175442820597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-32133446718583147982007-09-19T13:50:00.000-04:002007-09-19T13:50:00.000-04:00It's a foundation Steve.No more seppies vs federal...It's a foundation Steve.<BR/>No more seppies vs federalists.<BR/>It's left vs right.<BR/>The writing was on the wall Jan 2006. <BR/>To his credit, Dion quickly moved left, but it seems Quebec considers the NDP the more sincere lefties.<BR/>Given Libs signing Kyoto and doing nothing, Libs sending troops to combat in Afghan and then questioning the mission, yah can see why.<BR/><BR/>PMSH and Jack will work very well together.wilsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03589410224972050999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-66738847286309851552007-09-19T13:16:00.000-04:002007-09-19T13:16:00.000-04:00Jack had great appeal in Quebec. What's your point...Jack had great appeal in Quebec. What's your point anon - oh nothing, just being a bug. SWATsusansmithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02573558646874765432noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-4127417684823542472007-09-19T13:14:00.000-04:002007-09-19T13:14:00.000-04:00lanceI'm not sure what low turnout has to do with ...lance<BR/><BR/>I'm not sure what low turnout has to do with it, considering the fact that if you added on normal turnout % and ever single vote went Liberal, which is ludicrious, the NDP still wins. Also, seems to me that media attention wasn't an issue for the NDP in this campaign, and I'm pretty sure they could get enough resources for a few targeted ridings.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-10134970746198359042007-09-19T13:13:00.000-04:002007-09-19T13:13:00.000-04:00The Dippers are now targeting Lucienne Robillard's...The Dippers are now targeting Lucienne Robillard's riding after she announced she will not run again in the next general election. Three candidates are vying for the Grits, none of them remarkable. One is a ex-journalist for the Star while the other is Marc Garneau (who has links to the Ignatieff camp).<BR/><BR/>If the Dippers throw Julius Grey against them or another Dion handpicked candidate, then the story will be the Grits have not learned their lesson from Outremont.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-70129275317229413782007-09-19T12:58:00.000-04:002007-09-19T12:58:00.000-04:00If Mulcair has that ability - recruiting important...If Mulcair has that ability - recruiting important people - he should be NDP leader, not Layton.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-25913681719141342602007-09-19T12:38:00.000-04:002007-09-19T12:38:00.000-04:00"One swallow does not make a summer," as the sayin..."One swallow does not make a summer," as the saying goes, but this by-election win, the result of careful strategic planning, hard work, and smart politics wasn't a fluke for the NDP either.<BR/><BR/>Julius Grey is a well-known civil rights lawyer in Quebec (among other things) and if Layton can indeed entice candidates of his quality to run for the NDP in Quebec, then the chances of long-term growth are real, and the strategic decision to run Mulcair in Outremont will continue to pay dividends for the party.Stephenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13948813957907216580noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-53661688113938012992007-09-19T12:35:00.000-04:002007-09-19T12:35:00.000-04:00Does the NDP value the seat in Que. more than seat...Does the NDP value the seat in Que. more than seats in other areas?<BR/><BR/>They threw _a lot_ of resources into the Outremont byelection, resources they might not be able to muster in a general election.<BR/><BR/>Personally, I think its a one-off based on a few things: low voter turnout, Liberal miscalculation regarding the NDP's desire for the riding and little or no media hype.<BR/><BR/>The NDP played the ground game to perfection, Jack! practically lived in the riding, they brought all their MP's to knock on doors, had their liturature and signage ready, etc. Once the NDP had the momentum it was impossible to slow that down.<BR/><BR/>The NDP will not be able to do that kind of stuff in a general election. For one thing, they won't be able compete w/ CPC/Lib/Bloc media coverage and they won't be able to benefit from low voter turnout.<BR/><BR/>I'm not convinced the multitude of volunteers they had weren't just in it for kicks and giggles.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/>lancelancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14481248175442820597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-71989518689975373142007-09-19T11:48:00.000-04:002007-09-19T11:48:00.000-04:00It's too soon to answer this question, as the answ...It's too soon to answer this question, as the answer depends on too many unknown factors. It's not too soon to ask it, though, and the Liberals are wise to be discussing it.Idealistic Pragmatisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18296481430598981678noreply@blogger.com