tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post8342760269438815375..comments2023-10-22T09:18:16.885-04:00Comments on Far and Wide: The Nightmare ScenarioSteve Vhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-23133995048901840712007-09-15T23:59:00.000-04:002007-09-15T23:59:00.000-04:00Just one thought on low turnout, this particular r...Just one thought on low turnout, this particular race is getting huge press, a high-profile push from both sides, which could make this by-election a bit of an odd duck in terms of the usual template. Harder to predict turnout.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-91873833104218152402007-09-15T23:55:00.000-04:002007-09-15T23:55:00.000-04:00Note that low turnouts benefit the Dippers more th...Note that low turnouts benefit the Dippers more than Grits. Witness the by-elections in urban Toronto lost by McGuinty's government: Parkdale-High Park, York South Weston.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-20611180875068191982007-09-15T18:52:00.000-04:002007-09-15T18:52:00.000-04:00"lets remember by-elections tend to have historica..."lets remember by-elections tend to have historically low turnouts so polls often tend to be off by larger margins then they are in a general election, so these results may not play out."<BR/><BR/>Miles agreed.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-46047993466950110842007-09-15T12:41:00.000-04:002007-09-15T12:41:00.000-04:00Certainly these numbers are not good, but lets rem...Certainly these numbers are not good, but lets remember by-elections tend to have historically low turnouts so polls often tend to be off by larger margins then they are in a general election, so these results may not play out. Still, we should not be complacent here. In fact we should never take any riding for granted no matter how safe we feel it is. Surprises do happen. Anybody remember Reg Alcock losing his seat after spending only two days campaigning in his riding since he thought he had the deal sealed, this can happen.Monkey Loves to Fighthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05122291567543761919noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-49840178111693419032007-09-15T10:16:00.000-04:002007-09-15T10:16:00.000-04:00joffreAnd we are sending in the troops Sept 15.joffre<BR/><BR/>And we are sending in the troops Sept 15.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-10572037200219187722007-09-15T09:28:00.000-04:002007-09-15T09:28:00.000-04:00Steve, the entire NDP caucus came over to Outremon...Steve, the entire NDP caucus came over to Outremont for an of canvassing after their caucus meeting in Montréal, on August 27th.Joffréhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14860650289320300255noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-50019794116114250082007-09-15T03:51:00.000-04:002007-09-15T03:51:00.000-04:00Tell KNB just what is the Liberal position on Afgh...Tell KNB just what is the Liberal position on Afghanistan? Presumably they do not think the mission futile. Otherwise they would not have committed us to this fool’s errand in the first place. They keep on blabbing about how it is someone else’s “turn” even though it is politically impossible for any Western country to move into the Kandahar region other than the maybe the US and maybe Britain and the US has already taken a turn there and Hellman province, where the Brits are, is just as bad Kandahar province. Of course, Dion did not explicitly say that Canada should leave Kandahar just that combat operations should stop as February 2009. If this is what he trying to allow for, it is it is a distinction without a difference. Staying in Kandahar means taking part in combat operations. <BR/><BR/>The NDP position by contrast is straight forward. Canada should leave Kandahar if not Afghanistan altogether. Our national interests are not served by our spending billions on a mission that is bound to fail, is producing causalities, has the potential for opening up a huge gap between Quebec and the rest of the nation and when the prospect of Canada being attacked by terrorists, be they homegrown or otherwise, is not lessened by our being there but is more likely. <BR/><BR/>"No one has flipped more and provided a mixed message more, on this issue than Harper."<BR/><BR/>I do not think Harper has flipped flopped at all. Do not confuse obfuscation with flip flopping. I do not think for second that he has any intention of pulling Canadian troops out of Kandahar, but anyway that is beside the point. Why has this Republican talking point/term of derision entered the Canadian political lexicon? If something is failing miserably, I hope to god the supporters of such a policy "flip flop" rather than "stay the course".Kobyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03407275645274060038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-17398470895696850762007-09-15T00:24:00.000-04:002007-09-15T00:24:00.000-04:00Steve,I've been reading the posters and quite fran...Steve,<BR/><BR/>I've been reading the posters and quite frankly I am seriously impressed with the quality of the discussion and the depth of the folks commitment to their party.<BR/><BR/>If this is the grassroots Liberal support talking than you guys deserve a much better fate, than losing to watch the media poke at your party like its a dead whale on the beach or watching Jack Layton's self satisfied smugness. <BR/><BR/>Good luck over the weekend.<BR/><BR/>TommAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-58106699950357191512007-09-15T00:01:00.000-04:002007-09-15T00:01:00.000-04:00The only good thing about this poll, it has put a ...The only good thing about this poll, it has put a Liberal loss in the media's mind. If the Liberals can hold on, I suppose the relativity of it all might let some light into the cave.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-87450878288604736412007-09-14T23:59:00.000-04:002007-09-14T23:59:00.000-04:00Actually, one more thing. I think you're doing a ...Actually, one more thing. I think you're doing a good thing, James. really good. My attempt at a bit of levity to take away from that, was just the timing of the post.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-35550773613804172522007-09-14T23:57:00.000-04:002007-09-14T23:57:00.000-04:00Thanks joseph :)james"As opposed to Layton having ...Thanks joseph :)<BR/><BR/>james<BR/><BR/>"As opposed to Layton having all his MPs there from all over the country...but Jack's no ass."<BR/><BR/>And when did Jack do that? Exactly. You don't get it.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-40650613349478628612007-09-14T23:54:00.001-04:002007-09-14T23:54:00.001-04:00I just stuck my finger out the window.the number i...I just stuck my finger out the window.<BR/><BR/>the number is definitely 778, unless that one woman with the scratchy throat in the big grey house doesn't drink her OJ tomorrow and Sunday. Then it'll be 779 (she's in the closet about her NDP leanings).<BR/><BR/>cheers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-75875516550214319912007-09-14T23:54:00.000-04:002007-09-14T23:54:00.000-04:00As opposed to Layton having all his MPs there from...As opposed to Layton having all his MPs there from all over the country...but Jack's no ass. <BR/><BR/>Sometimes guys from Niagara Falls make just enough of a difference. I remember leadership very well...Dion couldn't win there either apparently. <BR/><BR/>Next doom and gloom will be that we're going to lose in Mount Royal next election because we'll only have 55% support, etc. etc. <BR/><BR/>We're not losing anything. We will win Outremont and the other two ridings weren't ours to lose.James Curranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08064830948270604331noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-56821878328209754892007-09-14T23:42:00.000-04:002007-09-14T23:42:00.000-04:00Bob Fife comes up with this gem:"A word of caution...Bob Fife comes up with this <A HREF="http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20070914/quebec_poll_070914/20070914?hub=TopStories" REL="nofollow">gem</A>:<BR/><BR/>"A word of caution if I may -- the Liberals still think they might be able to win this riding, but only by about 700 votes," Fife told CTV News."<BR/><BR/>Who the hell came up with that calculation? Sure it wasn't 800?Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-28342874213128773822007-09-14T23:36:00.000-04:002007-09-14T23:36:00.000-04:00get rid of dion and see what would happen with Ign...get rid of dion and see what would happen with Ignatief.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-22706098200002107282007-09-14T23:29:00.000-04:002007-09-14T23:29:00.000-04:00You know what else is assinine, chastizing others ...You know what else is assinine, chastizing others for stating the obvious. The fact that a guy from Niagara Falls has to fly into a Quebec "Liberal stronghold", in the dying days, in a last ditch effort to salvage some credibility, is a gigantic illustration of the problem.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-69745283081441285972007-09-14T23:17:00.000-04:002007-09-14T23:17:00.000-04:00Well, just for the hell of it, I'm going to Montre...Well, just for the hell of it, I'm going to Montreal to help my party...regardless of who the leader is, who the candidate is, who's sitting on their ass, who the riding president is and what the bullshit UniMarketing Poll says. <BR/><BR/>How many times have you heard of UniMarketing anyway? I'm sure they're right up there with Ecos, Pollara, Ipsos. <BR/>And, our position in these ridings are EXACTLY within the margin of error as the previous election. And that's with a guy who has only been a leader for 9 months. <BR/><BR/>Don't worry about Dion and his committment to winning this riding. We will win Outremont. <BR/><BR/>Blaming the other two ridings on poor organization or lack of concern is assinine. WE haven't been close in those ridings since the formation of the Bloc. <BR/><BR/>So, instead of blaming everyone, I'm on board to get off my ass, go knock on some doors, drop off some lit, drive some people around, call some people, scrutineer, blog partisan stuff or whatever the hell else it takes to "do my part". <BR/><BR/>BTW flights are only $173 return taxes is on Air Canada from Toronto ;-)James Curranhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08064830948270604331noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-19643943879151114962007-09-14T23:15:00.000-04:002007-09-14T23:15:00.000-04:00anonNot only won't that dog hunt, but its got flea...anon<BR/><BR/>Not only won't that dog hunt, but its got fleas. Good luck with that.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-62842850533502045952007-09-14T23:09:00.000-04:002007-09-14T23:09:00.000-04:00La Presse Poll Reported Incorrectly...or, Spin it ...La Presse Poll Reported Incorrectly...or, Spin it to suit yourself Chantal<BR/> <BR/>So I downloaded the Unimarketing/La Presse poll that's run rampant all over the MSM today. Of course it's all being spun as the dismantling of Stephane Dion and the Liberal Party in Quebec. <BR/><BR/>But, let's have a look at the REAL story behind the numbers shall we. Then you can tell me who the REAL losers are in this by-election<BR/><BR/>ROBERVAL-LAC-STE.-JEAN<BR/><BR/>2006 Results<BR/><BR/>BQ 17,586/ 45.21%<BR/>Conswervatives 14,463/ 37.18%<BR/>Liberal 3,014/ 7.75%<BR/>Dips 2,151/ 5.53%<BR/>Green Wave 1,689/ 4.34%<BR/><BR/>La Presse Poll 2007<BR/><BR/>BQ 37%<BR/>Conswervatives 43%<BR/>Liberal 12%<BR/>Dips 4%<BR/>Green Wave 4%<BR/><BR/>So, you see, it would appear in this riding the big losers are the Bloc and the NDP. Both the Liberals and CONS are up in support in this riding. Take that Chantal!! Why aren't you telling us Duceppe is finished for good?<BR/><BR/>SAINT-HYACINTHE-BAGOT<BR/><BR/>2006 RESULTS<BR/><BR/>BQ 27,838/ 56.0% <BR/>Conswervatives 12,323/ 24.8%<BR/>Liberal 4,884/ 9.8%<BR/>Dips 2,723/ 5.5%<BR/>Green Wave 1,925/ 3.9%<BR/><BR/><BR/>La Presse Poll 2007<BR/><BR/>BQ 49%<BR/>Conswervatives 32%<BR/>Liberal 5%<BR/>NDP 7%<BR/>Green Wave 6%<BR/><BR/>So why isn't Chantal putting the death nail in the coffin of the BQ leader Gilles Duceppe? Duceppe gives up 7% in this riding. Liberals never ever had a sniff of hope here in elections past. <BR/><BR/><BR/>Now for the big one. <BR/><BR/>OUTREMONT<BR/><BR/>2006 RESULTS<BR/><BR/>Liberal 14,281 35.13%<BR/>BQ 11,714 28.81%<BR/>Dips 6,965 17.13%<BR/>Conswervatives 5,248 12.84%<BR/>Green Wave 1,948 4.79%<BR/><BR/>La Presse Poll 2007<BR/><BR/>Liberal 32%<BR/>BQ 14%<BR/>Dips 38%<BR/>Green Wave 8%<BR/>Conswervatives 7%<BR/><BR/><BR/>Again, who's the big loser. Duceppe of course. 14% loss from the last election. Not to mention the Conswervatives trailing the Green Party. But somehow Chantal Hebert and others have decided Stephane Dion and the Liberals are dead in the water if we lose Outremont. Read 'em weep everyone. The Liberal Party is alive and well in Quebec. Gotta be distressing for the Bloc though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-89870733472851127712007-09-14T23:02:00.000-04:002007-09-14T23:02:00.000-04:00koby: Afghanistan was the big issue here and the N...koby: <I>Afghanistan was the big issue here and the NDP have a coherent position and the Liberals have a mix of talking points that are not grounded in any coherent critque of the mission. </I><BR/><BR/>Nonsense. Dion has been more than clear. That you still struggle with his position, tells me that you top note media stories.<BR/><BR/>No one has flipped more and provided a mixed message more, on this issue than Harper.Karenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04291881352139075405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-43767294006869483332007-09-14T22:57:00.000-04:002007-09-14T22:57:00.000-04:00Well said, Koby!We need a lean, mean, hard-edged p...Well said, Koby!<BR/><BR/>We need a lean, mean, hard-edged power-winning party, starting with clear policies, clear plans and ruthless execution.CuriosityCathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12485015529428901518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-1924864579937680192007-09-14T22:27:00.000-04:002007-09-14T22:27:00.000-04:00Outremount represents more than just a failure of ...Outremount represents more than just a failure of organization. It represents a policy failure. Afghanistan was the big issue here and the NDP have a coherent position and the Liberals have a mix of talking points that are not grounded in any coherent critque of the mission. <BR/><BR/>The days of pumping out middle of the road, offend no one, please no one, interest no one, policies that are utterly incoherent at their core because they are designed to appeal to both sides of any political divide must come to end.<BR/><BR/>The Liberals are not going to build a grass roots movement unless they are willing to step on some toes and offend different groups from time to time. They are not going to attract anyone by trying to be all things to all people. Moreover the media is going to forget about them entirely unless they take a stand from time to time.Kobyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03407275645274060038noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-55244058123351585052007-09-14T22:00:00.000-04:002007-09-14T22:00:00.000-04:00If what mushroom says about how the liberal leader...If what mushroom says about how the liberal leadership regard their positions and respond to Dion are both true (may be - I wouldn't know), then that says a lot about what needs to change. <BR/><BR/>Being able to discuss what's really happening (or not happening) and just paying attention to, oh, I don't know - the news maybe? I've never even been to Montreal and could sense some of this was coming - partly due to Far and Wide of course . . .Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-30284342510705687942007-09-14T21:00:00.000-04:002007-09-14T21:00:00.000-04:00Just curious: how does bringing in outside organiz...Just curious: how does bringing in outside organizers (from Ontario, lets say) play in Que. Is it the kind of thing that might trigger a backlash?bigcitylibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05081538803991095825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20358187.post-33581155336510831722007-09-14T20:57:00.000-04:002007-09-14T20:57:00.000-04:00"How is that some lowly blogger, sitting in centra..."How is that some lowly blogger, sitting in central Ontario, relying on second hand accounts and tidbits here and there, can see the potential disaster, while the supposed "braintrust" clues in a few day before the reckoning?"<BR/><BR/>Steve,<BR/><BR/>This is because you are not dependent on Stephane Dion for your livelihood. You do not have to hide or trying to put a positive spin on so-called bad news for fear of being a "bad" Liberal.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com