Conducted by Ipsos Reid for CanWest News Service and Global National, the poll showed that the spread between the Tories and Liberals has been reduced by four percentage points during the past week and now stands at only six points.
The survey said that the Conservatives have dropped to 35% support while the Liberals remain at 29% of decided voters. The NDP rose by one point to 16% while the Green party had a similar increase to nine per cent support.
In vote-rich Ontario, the Liberals gained two points to 40% while the Tories dropped by three points to 36%. The NDP, meanwhile, dipped by one point to 12% while Greens received a boost of two points to 11%.NDP at 12%??
The poll showed Bloc Quebecois support jumped by seven points to 38% in Quebec, pumping up their national numbers by two points to 10%. The Tories declined by six points to 20% in the volatile province, only one point ahead of the Liberals.
Yesterday, Decima released a poll, with the headline "Scandal Fails to Hurt Harper", a combination of little political damage and voter apathy. Ipsos attributes all of the Conservative erosion to the Schreiber affair, particularly in Ontario and Quebec. In my mind, I'm inclined to agree with Decima that this whole affair has done little to sway opinion. Although Ipsos argues that the "scandal" is damaging the Conservative brand, they contradict that point with this finding:
But the results of the poll also show that many Canadians do not believe that the Commons ethics committee hearings into the affair are even necessary, with 50% saying the proceedings "are a waste of time" and it should be left to the RCMP to investigate. Thirty-eight per cent believe "it is worthwhile for Parliament to investigate and get to the bottom of the allegations."
In two weeks, we move from a 14 point gap to a 6 point gap. It just so happens that the latter gap is more in line with other polling, and now puts Ipsos within the consensus opinion. Some may attribute the move to Schreiber, my gut tells me there was some revision to lose the outlier status.