Friday, December 07, 2007

Ipsos Poll

Only two weeks ago, Ipsos Reid had the Conservatives at 42% nationally, leading in Ontario. Plenty of criticism, the Ipsos findings were completely seperate from all the other polling. At the risk of being sued, I made the mental calculation that Ipsos would start to trim their numbers, to regain some credibility, lose the outlier status. Last week, Ipsos had the Conservatives down 3%, at 39%, the Liberals up 1%- the gap went from 14 points to 10. This week, the new Ipsos poll finds even more Conservative erosion, with some thin reasoning:
Conducted by Ipsos Reid for CanWest News Service and Global National, the poll showed that the spread between the Tories and Liberals has been reduced by four percentage points during the past week and now stands at only six points.

The survey said that the Conservatives have dropped to 35% support while the Liberals remain at 29% of decided voters. The NDP rose by one point to 16% while the Green party had a similar increase to nine per cent support.


Ontario:
In vote-rich Ontario, the Liberals gained two points to 40% while the Tories dropped by three points to 36%. The NDP, meanwhile, dipped by one point to 12% while Greens received a boost of two points to 11%.
NDP at 12%??

Quebec:

The poll showed Bloc Quebecois support jumped by seven points to 38% in Quebec, pumping up their national numbers by two points to 10%. The Tories declined by six points to 20% in the volatile province, only one point ahead of the Liberals.

Yesterday, Decima released a poll, with the headline "Scandal Fails to Hurt Harper", a combination of little political damage and voter apathy. Ipsos attributes all of the Conservative erosion to the Schreiber affair, particularly in Ontario and Quebec. In my mind, I'm inclined to agree with Decima that this whole affair has done little to sway opinion. Although Ipsos argues that the "scandal" is damaging the Conservative brand, they contradict that point with this finding:
But the results of the poll also show that many Canadians do not believe that the Commons ethics committee hearings into the affair are even necessary, with 50% saying the proceedings "are a waste of time" and it should be left to the RCMP to investigate. Thirty-eight per cent believe "it is worthwhile for Parliament to investigate and get to the bottom of the allegations."

In two weeks, we move from a 14 point gap to a 6 point gap. It just so happens that the latter gap is more in line with other polling, and now puts Ipsos within the consensus opinion. Some may attribute the move to Schreiber, my gut tells me there was some revision to lose the outlier status.

7 comments:

bigcitylib said...

As usual, you beat me to the poll and did a better job on it. One thing I don't like about it is, according to several polls now, the new normal for Libs is under 30%.

And I think the decline is,as you suggest, partly due to quietly readjusted assumptions, but partly real as well.

Love to see what happens when Mulroney starts testifying.

foottothefire said...

Good work, FW.
As a life long Albertan I have come to believe some polling company are entirely focused on income and if it takes a skewed question to skew results the right way, hey, it's a commercial world we live in and you can't bank integrity.

Steve V said...

"One thing I don't like about it is, according to several polls now, the new normal for Libs is under 30%."

That's true. The Cons numbers have dropped 7%, but the Libs are only up 1%. I don't think the Libs will get above 30%, until they get out of the teens in Quebec.

foot

"it's a commercial world we live in and you can't bank integrity."

That's a good way of putting it.

ottlib said...

Steve:

This poll is still wrong despite it coming into line with others because it is the only one showing any movement of the estimates.

The last Decima poll was identical to the one from two weeks ago, which was not much different from the two or three previous ones.

In other words politics in this country has frozen and only Ipsos seems to believe otherwise.

These guys just cannot win.

Anonymous said...

I wonder how accurate the polls are when it comes to the Schreiber-Mulroney issue. A lot of people were too young at the time to be interested now. Many are working and haven't watched to proceedings. I don't think they can get an accurate read on it.

Steve V said...

ottlib

"This poll is still wrong despite it coming into line with others because it is the only one showing any movement of the estimates."

Exactly, which is why the sudden "movement" suggests something other than genuine voter change.

Anonymous said...

I have been shopping a lot in last few weeks as I have a bunch of greatgran little ones who like toys and not cash...in my travels and people listening..the things I hear is in total disagreement with the poll saying NO one was interested..in fact that is all people are talking about especially lying Brian. The Decima poll and Ipsos poll are both Conservative-biased...Decima states cons ahead in ontario and atlantic canada? Oh when will we ever get an honest pollster now that we have lost Nik and the Numbers to the Sun.