Another Poll, Similar Trends

Harris Decima poll, which mirrors some trends we've seen from other pollsters recently. Liberals up in Quebec, NDP support eroding and now some evidence of improved Liberal fortunes in British Columbia. Nationally, a slight uptick for the Liberals, relative to the last HD poll:

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put the Liberals at 33 per cent and the Conservatives at 32.

The NDP was at 14 per cent, the Greens at 10, and the Bloc Quebecois at nine.

The last HD poll had it 33% Cons, 31% Libs, so minor movement, with the Quebec numbers looking quite good:

The Conservatives have also seen their support in Quebec cut in half. The Bloc remains in front with 39 per cent support, while the Liberals have moved up to 32. The Tories have slid to 13, the NDP are at nine and the Greens at six.

The last batch of polls have all shown the Liberal numbers improving, while the Conservatives are really faltering. The 32% represents a recent high water mark for the Liberals with HD, as they seem to be emerging as the federalist option. I'd mentioned before, that the Bloc bounce we saw around the budget was part that dynamic, as well as Duceppe's 90% endorsement by Bloc rank and file. That uptick appears to have waned somewhat, and the numbers seem to show the Liberals taking advantage (this week's SC poll also suggested the Liberals were gaining at the Bloc's expense). The Conservatives are in real trouble, with each successive poll, the dire numbers cemented.

Ontario shows a tight race, with the Liberals up 38% to the Conservatives 34%, numbers fairly static from the last HD poll, and reasonably in line with others. What is particularly striking, another poll that shows the NDP hitting new lows. Earlier this week we saw a 12% number, now HD adds weight with a concerning 13%. Given this is ground zero on the economy, whatever message the NDP is putting forth isn't resonating, and they look increasingly marginalized.

We've seen some signs of slight improvement in British Columbia, and HD would also seem to suggest that:

In British Columbia, Liberal fortunes have improved significantly since the last election, but the Conservatives remain solidly ahead. The Conservatives lead with 38% followed by the Liberals with 32%, the NDP at 19% and the Greens at 9%.

High MOE, but if you look at all the polling for HD for the last few months, you see the Liberals pretty consistent, slightly above the 30% mark. You can't understate how important British Columbia might be in the next election, given where the Liberals will need to grow, so these numbers are encouraging.

Also, another poll which shows a strong Liberal lead in the Atlantic provinces.

The pollster concludes that women are moving back to the Liberals, and gives Ignatieff part of the credit:

It suggests the Tories trail the Liberals by five percentage points among women overall and by 12 points among urban women.

Jeff Walker, senior vice-president of Harris-Decima, said that's the important finding.

"Women are moving back toward the Liberals, where they had been leaning toward the Conservatives leading up to and then at the election in (October.)

"It's women overall, but in particular, among urban-dwelling women, the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives by 12 points now and they were even at the time of the last election."

Walker said the arrival of Michael Ignatieff as Liberal leader seems to be one key to this shift. The economy is the other.

Many traditional Liberals abandoned the party under Stephane Dion, Walker noted.

"Having Ignatieff as leader of the Liberals changes that.

Given the regional distributions, if this poll were true, it would be a slight Liberal minority. That aside, this poll does support similar trends found elsewhere, which are positives for the Liberals moving forward. Interesting to see if the numbers move further in the next few months, or if we're now headed for a holding pattern, until the next election.