Monday, September 13, 2010

New "Poll"

Ipsos has a new poll out. It shows no apparent change in the national numbers, although the pollster "analysis" seems to have missed the key shift. The numbers:

The poll, conducted from Sept. 8-12, found if an election occurred today, the Conservatives would receive 34 per cent of the vote from decided voters. That's unchanged from a poll taken a month ago.

Meanwhile, the Liberals would garner 31 per cent, also unchanged. The NDP, under leader Jack Layton, has the support of 16 per cent of decided voters — up one point —while the Bloc would receive 10 per cent of the vote nationally. Support for Elizabeth May's Green party holds steady at nine per cent.

Five per cent of voters are undecided.

Of note, in the last Ipsos poll, Bricker noted that the Conservative lead had been cut in half, Liberals up 2%, Conservatives down 1%. From that release:

Wright traces the Tories decline in popularity to the battering the government has taken over its decision to scrap the mandatory long-form census, and spending and security surrounding the G8 and G20s summits in Ontario.

The Ipsos-Reid poll said Tory support had slid one per cent since its last poll in early July. Liberal support was up two points over the same period, suggesting Ignetieff's cross-country bus tour may be paying some dividends.

The above serves as a good example why you need to go back more than one poll, in order to see the full picture. In this release, Bricker sees little erosion, and yet over the summer, the Liberals did gain on the Conservatives, undercutting the argument.

What is a bit surprising (or maybe not), that the pollster fails to even mention a substantial shift in Ontario. Considering this long gun registry debate, other pollsters noting the Liberals benefiting in Ontario, one would think some digestion:

The survey found a high level of political volatility in Ontario, the electoral battleground with the most federal seats. In that province, at 41 per cent, the Liberals have opened up a healthy lead over the Conservatives, who sit at 33 per cent. The NDP (15 per cent) and Green party (10 per cent) lag behind in the province.

You would probably be surprised to learn that last month's Ipsos poll actually had the Conservatives ahead 36% to the Liberals 35%. Quite a massive shift, 9 percentage points, Liberals up 6%, Conservatives down 3%. A curious mind might wonder why?? Ontario is very volatile, but this is the second pollster to peg the Liberals above the 40% mark in the last week.


william said...

Environics just came out putting Cons ahead in Ontario. Odd. Odder still it has us at 33% in QC, with the other federalist parties at 10 and 11. Love the idea, doubt the reality...yet...

Steve V said...

I saw that poll. To be honest, it looks an outlier. Everyone else has the Libs on the move in Ont, and nobody has them anywhere near 33% in Quebec. It's just a bid odd to have others showing movement towards the Libs, and then this poll showing the opposite trend. This is why you have the 19 out of 20 designation.

I'd love to really see us at 33% in Quebec. Really Ontario will come down to the campaign, regardless of pre-jockeying, people aren't invested and their votes turn on a dime. If I had my pick, I'd take Environics, but I just can't buy their against the tide numbers here.

william said...

After the amount of work I have put in the riding here since 2008, I would hope those Quebec numbers are a reflection of it (but I am giving myself a bit too much influence here :). Either or, we are moving in the right direction pretty much across the country, so no complaints here.

Steve V said...

I do think our numbers are rebounding in Quebec. Almost all the polls have shown us coming back to respectable levels, after the fall in the spring/early summer. We were in the 30's before under Ignatieff.

I did have the chance to ask the late Mario Laguë about our strategy in Quebec. This was when our numbers were tanking. He wasn't really worried to be honest, felt that Quebecers would give Ignatieff a serious look during any campaign, as long as he had a compelling message, we would do fine.

JF said...

This is actually excellent news. The trend for the past few years has been Strongish Tory Lead -> Grits Draw Close -> Strongish Tory Lead -> Grits Draw Close etc. etc. But what we're seeing here is Grits Draw Close -> Grits Stay Close... that's excellent since it implies a changing political dynamic and a break from the trend. Obviously this needs to be taken with a grain of salt until we see a similar dynamic in play across polling outfits but it's a good sign.

Tof KW said...

I agree JF, provided nothing dumb happens (OK no comparing Harper's proposed human trafficking legislation to Nazi immigration practices again please) and with the pressure on Harper now with Parliament sitting again this fall; should help keep this a horse race.

My own gut feeling (seeing how the Harper government now seems to enjoy shooting itself in the foot) is that the Grits will be 1-3% points consistently ahead of the Reformatories by the time the Christmas break rolls around. Not enough for anyone to want an election, but certainly that will drive Sweaterboy nuts.