Friday, December 10, 2010

"Conservatives Closer To Losing Power Than They Are To A Majority"

Oh great, just when we were planning the funeral, people smelling things and whatnot, the brink of mutiny, despair, along comes EKOS with their reputable track record. According to Frank Graves, there is no trend, the parties stuck in the mud, no movement to speak of. While others ponder a majority, EKOS sees defeat as a more likely scenario. What does all this mean? It means, nothing has changed, so let's all stop chasing every bump up and down, we're chasing people that can and will and have moved on a DIME.

EKOS gives the Conservatives a 4.5% lead. Compared to the other pollsters, we find the discrepancy culprit resides where it always does, ONTARIO. EKOS shows a dead heat in Ontario, while others have shown a sizable Conservative lead, this the point of divergence. Who's right? Well nobody, because you are trying to gauge the most volatile of electorates, the 10-15% of Ontarians that change their minds often, a fact which every poll since the last election will support. The Liberals have bested 40% in Ontario, the Conservatives the same, and both seem to find a bottom around 30%. The numbers move around, they never maintain themselves, the slightest breeze and they flip. It is here where the national numbers move, here where we all try to find meaning, and really its all about a percentage of the population that doesn't have any real strong ties to anybody- up for grabs and always available come election time, no matter the pre-writ leanings. That's a fact, and I bet if the pollsters tried to gauge firm commitment, they would find Ontario is exactly as I argue.

Rather than overstate, every time we see the same pattern manifest itself, I think it better to see if the trend holds for a few months. If we see this circumstance- which we haven't by the way- then we can say something is afoot. Until then, maybe review the last couple years, watch how things ebb and flow within a range, and realize we are applying large meaning to the most superficial of movement.

11 comments:

Steve V said...

And, just for the record, this post isn't trying to imply all is well in Liberal land....

Jerry Prager said...

Iggy either makes a stand on the G20, digs into the police state/prisons versus schools position or he needs to go now. McGuinty needs to give up the file on the OPP, negotiations with the RCMP, letters from the PMO etc, this whole stink points directly at Harper, everything Harper does needs to get nudged in the direction of his anti-transparent, unaccountable neocoporatist anti liberal-democracy mania, where it can then get drawn into this vortex, after which we can flush the sonofabitch out of our lives forever, and heaven help the liberals if they don't bring in meaningful reforms immediately

Trillium said...

Fun comment.

I especially enjoyed the 'smelling bad things....'

Good to see your healthy perspective!

Gayle said...

Yeah, but Graves gave money to the liberal party at some point in the past, and even though he also donated to the consercatives he gave MORE to the LPC.

So clearly his numbers, although ethically gathered and scientifically crunched, are wrong, because how could anyone who ever donated to the LPC be right?

;)

Steve V said...

I already got that one today, but luckily blogger has this new automatic "spam" feature :)

Anyone who actually believes a bias, should really review the record. And, while they are at it, compare it with other outfits and who pays them, and then see if any slant exists :)

Titanium said...

I don't really disagree with his numbers but I don't see the Libs having the ground game or the $$$ to pull off a victory in an election. However, with our system if the Libs are close enough to the Tories with help from the other parties they might be able to gain power.Although I have my doubts of that occuring.

Steve V said...

Libs will spend to the max next election, as for the ground game, advantage Cons for sure. I don't think anyone likes our odds, but it isn't hopeless either. I say 15-20% chance. The odds are better for a coalition, even higher that this will be Harper's last election. If the Liberals shave off 20-30 seats, which isn't really an electoral stretch, it could be the beginning of a very fractured post-Harper period.

Kirk said...

I wonder how many in Ontario when they hear "Liberal" think McGuinty and not Ignatieff.

If the pollster doesn't properly set up that the poll is about federal parties and a fraction of the respondent are actually thinking provincial that can swing the Ontario results towards the Conservatives.

Steve V said...

There was a co-relation in Quebec as well, when Charest really tanked our numbers went down, with no real outside reason. It's something to keep an eye on for sure.

Deno said...

"Conservatives Closer To Losing Power Than They Are To A Majority"



Sounds like Liberals whistling pass the graveyard.

Deno

Steve V said...

Deep.