Pre-Mature Verdicts

I've been utterly amazed at how many supposed political "experts", pundits, observers, have been so quick to pass judgement on the robo-call affair. There is a dismissive tone, intertwined with some sort of misplaced arrogance, that thinks the electorate fits into some neat theorem. There is a reason all study involving humans is called SOCIAL science and not SCIENCE, and these over bearing cynics get lost in their own smug assertions to recognize the error. Seems to me true wisdom first understands the folly of rash judgements, particularly when the facts are evolving and the debate looks to be protracted. That recognition isn't to say robo-calls resonate or move numbers, or cost the Conservatives anything, only that to scoff with finality the realm of a fool, ripe for future red faced revision.

With this backdrop in mind, imagine my surprise to see a fresh poll that shows Conservative support tanking to their core number, now tied with the leaderless NDP. More striking, this particular commentary:

The Conservatives are clearly paying a price for the robo-calls affair, plans to increase the qualifying age for Old Age Security, legislation that would give the government information on individual Internet accounts, and increased uncertainty over the costs of new fighter jets.

A host of reasons, at the top, the robo-call scandal. Given this issue has dominated the political landscape, fair to make the connection. I wouldn't understate the other reasons cited, because we have seen a rather rough patch for the government on many issues, only that the pollster seems to see robo-calls contributing to falling fortunes. As well, you'll note other polls have shown less than flattering numbers for the Conservatives on the robo-call scandal, as well as failing "right track" numbers, there is some noteworthy erosion occurring when it comes to confidence in this government.

Stephen Harper didn't come to power because of the economy, a quick review of stuffed coffers, robust growth, low unemployment, any measure you choose, a potent confirmation. NO, Harper came to power because voters tired of the corrupt Liberals, it was ethics, arrogance, cheating, that is what undermined, eroded support, not "trains on time" considerations. Canadian history is full of examples, wherein scandal has undone a government, not coming clean with voters, cheating, dishonesty, which makes the scoffing crowd all the more confounding. The prospect of Conservatives in handcuffs, no matter their stature, trying to usurp democracy, that doesn't matter or come with a price? I'd say more a commentary on personal bias than any fair reading.

Maybe the robo-call story goes nowhere, maybe it fades and the Conservatives suffer little in the final analysis. And, maybe the Conservatives don't, maybe this scandal- which fits a wider narrative- does strike a cord, comes with price. The verdict is still out, anyone already reaching one, is really what should be dismissed as valuable commentary...

Robocall Impact

I find it a bit odd, the rush to verdict on the robocall affair, particularly when it's clearly an evolving story, that is nowhere near crescendo. How anyone can make definitive conclusion on resonance escapes me, particularly seasoned observers like a Gerry Nichols for example. Much of the impetus for these rash pronouncements seems to stem from already held beliefs on what matters to Canadians, rather than viewing the robocall affair with non jaundiced eyes. Considering many a government has been harmed by non "trains on time" scandals, the dismissive tone from many quarters strikes me as misplaced cynicism.

Kinsella is on the money again, to date one of the better continual reads on this scandal:

"As a general rule, they will not pass judgment unless they see perps being led away in handcuffs and orange jumpsuits"

I've made this point as well, when we start seeing Conservatives walking into court rooms, no matter how far up the chain, it will tarnish, it will impact public perceptions, anything but irrelevant or inconsequential. We are at the early stages of this scandal, already we see a public that does want answers, but it is hardly surprising that an overwhelming judgement has yet to pass, unlike some who are covering the affair. Cheating, getting caught and going to jail, Canadians don't like, dismiss and time may betray you.

Kinsella makes a wider point, which "opposition" to Harper must tackle, if things like the robocall scandal will truly have measurable electoral impact. There is a very compelling, almost irrefutable, argument to be made that the current party divisions constitute a "free pass" for these Conservatives, relatively immune due to fundamental negating forces. It is for this reason that we can see devastating right direction/wrong direction polling for the Conservatives and it still translates into power, comfortable at that. Every conversation starts with 30-35% support in the Conservatives pocket, almost unshakable, something that can be depended on no matter the issue that arises, it simply has no place to go. It is a bit disconcerting that you can have two thirds of Canadians vehemently opposed to this regime and they can simultaneously feel no discernible threat. It is this dynamic that represents the single biggest reality in federal politics, if not addressed, much of the sound and fury is marginalized.

Moving forward, I think what is imperative, understanding the best possible path that delivers the most comprehensive impact. What scenarios will make things like robocon truly BITE the Conservatives, how to take certain outrages and maximize the damage to their fortunes. One thing is now beyond clear, the current political makeup has a "scot free" component which undermines any notion of accountability or normal consequence.

Robopoll

The first robocall specific poll is out from Angus Reid and it provides little comfort for the Conservatives. The poll also reveals the opposition will find much support in pushing for further inquiry. As well, on a couple key questions, there is some consensus across party lines.

The opposition should ramp up the calls for a full public inquiry, that is shrewd politically and the concept finds overwhelming support with votes, even Conservatives:

81% want an independent investigation to find out exactly who was behind any misleading robocalls that may have been made in the May 2011 federal election...including 72% of Conservative voters

That is a big number, rarely do you see such unanimity on any question, even more striking the large majority of Conservative supporters on side. If the opposition really ramp up the calls for a public inquiry, there is a VERY sympathetic audience.

As I mentioned in the last post, a real tug of war politically revolving around isolating the robocalls, is it a "one off" or is it "systematic". This poll shows the Conservatives face headwinds:

64% think the Guelph incident is “probably’ or “definitely” one of many that took place in the last campaign...only 18% think it isolated.

I would argue the above also supports the need for a public inquiry, as people clearly aren't buying the Conservative argument this is a rogue affair, in only one riding, they suspect more are in play.

As it relates to resonance, an even split, 50% following very closely or moderately close, 50% not much or not at all. Relatively, a pretty strong number as to the "water cooler" element, and perhaps moreso when you consider percentage of people who actually vote.

Another interesting finding, voters were asked if there should be by-elections in "every riding that was the subject of misleading robocalls should have a by-election as soon as possible." 50% of voters agreed, 37% don't, a finding which provides fodder for possible recounts. As well, 44% of people believe robocalls have "changed the outcome" of the federal election, 36% don't agree, concerning in that this controversy is undermining our democratic confidence.

This is a quite a bad poll for the government side, people aren't buying their arguments and they believe further inquiry is warranted, in overwhelming fashion. These results give the opposition some ammunition to keep up an aggressive posture, people are concerned and people are questioning.

Robocall Reset

It's important to keep some perspective here, as the Conservatives play the "contain" game with robocalls. The frame emerging seems to be that if the Conservatives can isolate electoral fraud to Guelph, they've effectively killed this scandal. On the other hand, the opposition is entirely focused on finding the smoking gun that leads right to Conservative central command. There is a tug of war at play, which has the almost bizarre effect of rendering Guelph almost irrelevant to the discussion. Oh sure, something really bad happened in Guelph involving Conservative operatives, perhaps some rogue element used the database for nefarious purposes, but if it can be contained to that riding, it equates to full "exoneration" in a sense for the formal Conservative Party apparatus, which is all that matters. Huh?

You don't get a freebie riding, you don't get to say "well this happened here, BUT", because that distracts from what DID happen in a riding very much in play. Backtrack to the last couple weeks of the national campaign, a Liberal Party CRATERING, there was every sense that no seat was safe, particularly a "swing" riding that was quite close in 2008. In the dying days of the 2011 campaign, Guelph was in doubt, look at an electoral map and you'll see a SEA OF BLUE surrounding it on all sides, a lone island, the last Liberal stronghold in an entire region. It was reasonable to surmise, given the state of things, that a few votes could well determine the outcome in Guelph, to say it was safe, historically asinine, perhaps moreso given the Liberals in TOTAL freefall. In other words, a prime riding wherein voter suppression could well have been perceived as a tilting factor, no doubt about it.

It is somewhat irrelevant if anyone finds formal sanction of what transpired in Guelph. Given the stance of people like Giorno, Harper, there is a certain confidence that no direct chain will lead right to the heart of the Conservative machine. I would submit that is a reasonable assumption, because serious people understand electoral fraud and paper trails, I suspect a certain cognition which wouldn't touch this formally. What remains in my mind, how far up the chain, was there nudges, winks, was their mid level assistance, all these questions remain to be seen. However, what happened in Guelph isn't in dispute, the Conservatives CONCEDE, their own database perhaps sheds some light, for whatever reason, on Guelph all parties agree.

Here's what we need to keep in mind moving forward. The Conservative frame is that Guelph yes, but there is no formal undertaking, nor was these a carefully orchestrated NATIONAL endeavour. That is a bar that is artificial, so it's important to not get caught up in demands to reveal more, when we already have SO MUCH acknowledged. There is a danger in treating Guelph like a mulligan, with the REAL onus somehow on the opposition to prove more. Bullocks! We have a swing riding that seems to be the target of WIDESPREAD electoral fraud, which according to Elections Canada seemly involves Conservatives, perhaps people involved in a formal campaign, using sophisticated data to usurp democratic will. Isolate yourself to Guelph all you want, but again that's a fictional distinction, because that type of frame distracts from the biggest example of electoral fraud in Canadian history, don't trivialize within a pursuit of something more.

Nobody knows where this scandal leads us, I suspect many more surprises moving forward. That said, this examination isn't about the aforementioned tug of optical war occurring, much is already known and it IS damaging to the Conservatives, let's not lose ourselves in dueling frames as "victory" measures. If no more investigations come, if no more ridings are put under the microscope, if no more evidence leads to a wider net, we are still left with an incredibly disturbing scandal which apparently involves Conservatives who are committed to this Harper regime. Hardly trivial or easily fluffed off as rogue nothingness, Guelph counts no matter where we go.....

Cheater

There is an interesting tension underneath the robocall story, the debate about resonance, "legs", staying power, inside, outside, how much impact this scandal is truly having with the general public. Everyone will look to the next batch of polls to denote the impact, others already pointing to specific avenues of public expression, we will seek concrete reassurance to confirm what our sensibilities tell us. One caveat, as Kinsella shrewdly points out, rash judgements may not fit this particular scandal model, "tarnish" may be hard to ascertain short term.

I keep hearing the "trains on time" argument, all we care about is the economy and competence, this scandal, like many others, will simply fade as a vote motivator. I understand the logic in a certain sense, but I also see it a bit too simplistic and one dimensional in verdict. This scandal is simple at the heart, not some complicated scheme in the sense that it boils down to fairness and CHEATING. Nobody likes a cheater, when we watch a sport we leap out of our chair at a dive, when somebody butts in on a lineup we furrow our brows, tsk, tsk. The notion of fairness manifests itself everywhere, in our lives we confront it everyday, this isn't some abstract concept or complicated undertaking, it's a very elementary belief system.

If I care about the economy, it doesn't mean I absolve usurping my democratic right, it doesn't mean I condone people cheating to win an election. Whether or not the Harper government won handily anyways is utterly irrelevant, and I suspect people comprehend this fact. What matters isn't the overall outcome, but the attempt to influence any outcome using voter suppression, taking away that singular right we all have, attempting to nullify the core tenet of a democracy. To argue this issue doesn't matter is to say Canadians don't care about their individual rights, their system, the idea that we compete fairly and ethically. To date, the only people I see condoning the alleged behaviour are hopeless conbots and their media water carriers, the reality based community is largely aghast. Again, a simple digestion, people may have CHEATED during this election, people may have attempted to OBSTRUCT your democratic expression, people may have tried to STEAL an election.

This the most serious election related issue Canada has ever faced, there is no precedent for any of these allegations, it will force a re-examination of our political process. Much of the debate now is how much will stick, can the Conservatives maintain separation, can the stench be isolated down the chain, that will be important moving forward. However, admissions are already acknowledged, which means certain Conservatives have done things untoward, everyone admits CHEATING has taken place, the "who" still in question, the WHAT firm and no in dispute.

Conservatives CHEATED during the 2011 election, rogue, organized, isolated, pervasive, systematic, amateurish, whatever, Canadians merely see that one word and that it ties to a certain partisan expression. Nobody likes a cheater, simple as that...

This Fire Has Embers

Ibbitson states the obvious to a certain extent, the Conservative strategy appears to be banking on this robocall storm simply blowing itself out. Hardly a new tactic, the Conservatives are masters at riding out controversy, knowing full well that today's media climate is immediate, attention spans non existent, what looks "huge" today, forgotten tomorrow. The catchword "BREAKING" is almost redundant, because our daily information is forever the now, issues go stale in hours, not days and unless a story is continually "stoked", it simply burns out, we move on to the next instant gratification. As well, a certain boredom tends to take hold, a recurring story tends to have less impact with each successive review.

Vikileaks fits into the above category, in a week nobody will remember the name of Liberal staffer, just another example of unseemly political activity, but largely forgotten. However, if the Conservatives are "banking" on the robocall controversy simply falling off the radar, I submit that strategy will fail. One caveat, given the available options, perhaps the tried and true Conservative reaction (go back and look at In and Out for example, Harper is eerily familiar now, as are the minions) is the least worst option, cornered, what other avenues are available?

I believe this scandal has "legs", there is an almost institutional element that will keep the issue top of mind. There are investigations, legal questions, the very real possibility of a bi-election or two, as well as unforeseen revelations, all congealing to create a scandal which has legs. As well, I note CBC's Jamie Watt segment on what is resonating found this issue is hitting a very widespread nerve, robocalls are resonating, it has burst outside the bubble and generating real world chatter. You could make a compelling argument that most of the previous controversies these Conservatives have confronted haven't truly resonated, which has contributed to the success of the "ragging the puck" strategies. In this instance, early evidence suggests a potentially deeper electoral reaction, which again puts into question whether the Conservatives can successfully ride this issue out.

The courts will decide in April if we will have a least one bi-election in Etobicoke Center, Liberals are looking at other ridings as well. The legal threshold for triggering a bi-election lies with the ability to demonstrate that this robocall behaviour may have impacted the result. There is a very real possibility this stipulation can be met, which would translate into a fascinating development. A bi-election, wherein ethics will be the primary issue, as impetus, no question any vote would become a referendum on this whole unseemly matter. Should a bi-election be called anywhere, it amounts to a guarantee that this scandal will stay front and center, we will have a protracted national debate about political behaviour and our democratic tenets. Voters will have the most concrete avenue available to weigh in, to sanction or punish, emotions will run high.

There are so many angles within this scandal, so much drip, drip, drip, so many formal avenues that will evolve, the Conservatives might find that this time, their formely successful scandal template doesn't bail them out. This fire has embers...