Liberal Leadership Is The Wildcard

There seems a growing consensus, even amongst Liberal partisans, that Stephen Harper has been relatively effective to date. The relentless focus on winnable issues makes for a daunting task for the opposition. I have already argued how Harper's "message control" is a formidable strategy, that allows for the possibility of a future majority. The difficulty for the opposition will be drawing the Conservatives off the public relations campaign, into a situation where they can frame the debate, instead of merely reacting to "popular" priorities.

I firmly believe, that the single best hope to stop a Harper majority is the Liberal leadership campaign. The leadership campaign is the only wildcard that Harper can't control or manipulate. If the Liberals offer a substantive debate, that truly sets out a broad agenda it can blunt the propaganda machine. The Liberals can count on continued media coverage, outside of the parliament agenda, that gives them mountains of free advertising to change people's perspectives. As the coverage reaches a frenzy prior to the convention, people will be engaged to look at the "new" Liberal Party. Liberals will get a boost in the polls, the extent of which will be reflected by the tone of the convention. The free media event will continue as the new leader finds his way in the House. This concrete timeframe sets the Liberals up for a challenge to the government next spring, when a restless media will already be speculating on "how long can this minority last?"

The leadership race gives the Liberals a chance to take back the momentum and present their own "revolution", to a public that is largely soft in support. I admit, I am quite worried that Harper's agenda is working and he is effectively positioning himself for the next election. The only glimmer, besides the unforeseen, is the real opportunity that lies ahead for the Liberal Party. The signs point to a substantive debate, bolstered today by Stronach's pass. The stakes are enormous, this convention sets the stage for the next decade, nevermind the next election.