When respondents were asked who they would vote for, the results showed little difference from a few weeks ago (percentage-point change from a Nov. 12-13 poll in brackets):
Conservatives: 32 per cent (-2)
Liberals: 29 per cent (-2)
NDP: 16 per cent (same)
Green Party: 13 per cent (+5)
Bloc Quebecois: 10 per cent (-1)
The Green Party is also up 3% in Quebec, 4% in Ontario and 10% in the West. In Quebec, where Kyoto enjoys widespread support, and the provincial government has publicly admonished the government, the Conservatives have fallen to third place, behind the Liberals, who have actually broke out of the persistent teen score (20%).
This polls demonstrates the power of the environment to influence public opinion. The poll also demonstrates that the issue can hurt the government, they have not “neutralized” the issue. While the Liberals aren’t the direct benefactor, due to their own reputation on the file, it is noteworthy that the Greens could be a key ally when an election is called. If there is any erosion in Green support, May’s favorable opinion of Dion gives the Liberals the best chance to capitalize.
I take some comfort, in knowing that Canadians aren’t buying the Baird/Harper propaganda exercise. The Conservatives are being exposed in Bali, and I take this poll as evidence of that fact.