The latest EKOS highlights the underlying reason why the Liberals are in "disarray". On the national front, the Conservatives lead is down to 4.6%, and nobody can brag about 31.7% support for a sitting government. However, this storyline will continue to be muted, and the Liberals will remain the focus, until on simple thing changes- the Liberals get some traction in Quebec.
You might be surprised to know that despite the lowly 26.8% national total, the Liberals actually lead in Canada's most populus province. EKOS gives the Liberals are very respectable 36.1%, 4 points ahead of the Conservatives. If nothing else, these findings prove once again that Ontario is beyond volatile, the latest story can change fortunes dramatically. Of note, the Liberals also lead in Atlantic Canada.
Turning our gaze to Quebec, we see another pathetic 18.9% score for the Liberals, a number which is now commonplace. I would submit, that most of this merger, Liberals in freefall conversation, would be muted if the party was simply doing better in Quebec. The Liberals were in the 30's for more than a few months, then drifted back to the high 20's and its been downward since. Even if the party had MODEST numbers in Quebec, you can add a couple points nationally, and SUDDENLY you've got a close horserace and most of these "storylines" run basically as background noise.
If the people around Ignatieff really want to strengthen his hand, then everyone should be focused on getting some bloody traction in Quebec. These numbers are dragging down our national numbers, they are the underlying reason why all these questions swirl around the party. I'm not suggesting a couple points translates to a juggernaut, but given how little movements are routinely amplified, nobody who watches this game can dismiss the impact.
The Liberals have plenty of problems, but in terms of appearances, figuring out a way to boost our prospects in Quebec is job one, and in so doing, we might just find other issues lose their supposed urgency.