Thursday, November 11, 2010

EKOS

The latest EKOS is out, with some fairly major shifts poll to poll. I admit a bit stumped to explain the Conservatives plummeting 4.5% and the NDP rising 4.2%, big moves for an EKOS poll. The regionals look a bit wacky to me, I'll leave it at that ;)

What I do find noteworthy, this now recurring circumstance, wherein the two main parties both poll below 30% simultaneously. I believe this is the third time now that EKOS has published this dynamic recently, as well as a relatively recent Harris Decima poll. Also worth a mention, NDP support when we've seen this result isn't remarkable, actually averaging below 2008 levels. In this poll we see a sizeable NDP gain, but that wasn't the case for EKOS the two previous times we've seen the "everyone below" 30 release.

I see this result as further evidence, supporting my general thesis that people are decidedly unimpressed with any of the traditional options. As someone pointed out to me, there is no historical precedent in Canadian history, wherein Libs and Cons both poll so low, simultaneously. Add in NDP stagnation, you are left with a compelling case. EKOS pegs Green support at 10.7%, which is actually down week to week. Given that the environment no longer registers as a top voter issue, that the Greens continue to grow in support, is that much more telling. It would seem the Green draw is now that of a true alternative to the establishment parties.

All I know, no matter the opposition positioning, no one should fear a sitting government that polls so low, that has very poor "direction" ratings. The Conservatives are not a juggernaut, no love exists in the land. In my view, this reality sugggests a real vulnerability as well as a latent CHANGE feeling brewing in the electorate. An election may very well be a spark in this regard.

EKOS also asks about the F35 issue, with some interesting results. On the face, we see a slim majority opposing the F35 purchase, 54%-46%. However, in terms of strong feeling, we see 33% opposed, only 20% support. Looking at the regionals, it becomes more unclear if the Conservatives really benefit being the only party on the "support" side. A complicating factor, if one takes the Liberal position, some of the support side could be siphoned off. I would argue this point because the Liberals aren't saying no planes, just not these planes. The EKOS phrasing here doesn't incorporate alternative purchases and I suspect many that support F35s would be amenable to another plane. Is it this plane, or the general sense that you support or oppose replacing our current fighter jet? Big distinction in my view.

Anyways, another poll, providing further confirmation of a uninspired electorate...

9 comments:

Glenn said...

A 28% upswing for the NDP in Atlantic Canada. A 17% upswing for the NDP in Saskatchewan/Manitoba. A 12% upswing in BC for the Liberals post-Campbell. All in light of results by all the rest of the recent polls? This is Frank Graves to the rescue.

This poll is not just an outlier, it is an embarrassment.

ottlib said...

Geepers Glenn you are running all over Liblogs making the same comments on all of the blogs that speak to this poll.

Has it rattled you a little bit there Glenn?

Although the estimates from this poll are suspect it is too early to declare it an outlier just yet. It will take a few more polls to see if it is a rogue poll or if this poll is the first poll to show a new trend.

Personally I am leaning towards a rogue poll but I am not prepared to say that categorically yet.

In the meantime Glenn I would suggest you not focus so much on polls. You will sleep much better.

Fred from BC said...

ottlib said...

Geepers Glenn you are running all over Liblogs making the same comments on all of the blogs that speak to this poll.

Has it rattled you a little bit there Glenn



Why would he be 'rattled' by an outlier poll like this (especially one that originates from Liberal pollster Frank Graves)? And why are so many Liberal blogs directing attention to such a clearly inaccurate poll anyway? Doesn't seem like a good strategy to me...



In the meantime Glenn I would suggest you not focus so much on polls. You will sleep much better.


Amusing, considering that this blog spends so much time and effort commenting on polls. Would you say the same thing to Steve, then?

rockfish said...

What a bunch of whiny babies these CON trolls are... it's just one poll, don't take it personally. Just wait a few days for your CON pollster to buck this trend and you'll feel bitter in the morning...

Steve V said...

" Doesn't seem like a good strategy to me..."

Yes, because Canadians clearly care about Liberal blogs. Everybody needs to stop taking themselves so seriously... To funny.

Glenn said...

No Ottlib, this "poll" is nothing close to a cause for me to be rattled. I've just said as much for the benifit of some Liberals that see this "poll" and need a diaper change afterwards. At least Steve here understands with his little ";)" about the laugable regionals. Someone should, however, check Jane Taber's depends.

DL said...

Seeing whacky regional numbers based on small sample sizes in a national poll is nothing new. In fact just about EVERY SINGLE national poll that releases a breakdown by region has results in at least one region that seem bizarre. Tories are only going into overdrive on this Ekos poll because they are scared shitless by what the NATIONAL numbers are saying. BTW: Its fine to question a 17% upswing for the NDP in Man/Sask - but its likely that it was the previous data point that was whacky - as opposed to this one. In the 2008 election, the NDP took 25% of the vote in Man/Sask - it seems a lot more reasonable to believe that this might have edged up a bit to 29% than to believe the Ekos numbers from two weeks ago that suggested it had fallen by 50% to 12%!

Regional numbers outside of Ontario and Quebec should be treated with caution - but those regional skews tend to cancel each other out and the national numbers based on a sample size of 1,700 and change have to be considered quite robust.

Let's not forget that Ekos uses "robo-calling" as opposed to live interviewing - and the evidence from the US suggests that this technique tends to favour Republicans/Conservatives - so things may actually be even worse for the tories than Ekos suggests!

Fred from BC said...

Steve V said...

" Doesn't seem like a good strategy to me..."

Yes, because Canadians clearly care about Liberal blogs. Everybody needs to stop taking themselves so seriously... Too funny.


Probably true, but still...every time a new poll comes out showing a couple of points of movement (even well within the MOE) the same people seem to deem it important enough to base a blog post on. At least you're more honest about it than most, and point out any obvious flaws/contradictions when necessary...

Steve V said...

"the same people seem to deem it important enough to base a blog post on"

Or go to the blogs and read about it ;) Hello in there.