Wednesday, January 12, 2011

"Race Tightens Dramatically In Ontario"

As we all ponder the impact of the Conservatives assault on the Liberal bastion, another pollster reminds us nothing will be decided in Ontario until the final days of a campaign. Normally, polls taken just after the holidays tend to favour the incumbent government. Not so with the Angus Reid poll, wherein a sizeable Conservative lead is cut in half, with a very noteworthy change in Ontario:
The biggest change has come in Ontario, where the 13-point Tory lead observed in December has become a statistical tie (Conservatives 38%, Liberals 36%).

National Voting Intention: Con. 34%, Lib. 28%, NDP 17%, BQ 11%, Grn. 8%

Again, we see how quickly Ontario can change. There is really nothing substantial to explain such a large shift, but it just speaks to the superficial volatility at play, voters can and will change on a whim. In reality, you have 20-30% of the electorate on the market come the campaign, a subset that will have the biggest impact on the ultimate results.

In addition, lots of talk about Conservatives targeting ridings. Although that hope may very well be true, it is equally true that as many are available for Liberal consideration. In this poll for example, the Liberals would likely gain seats at the expense of the government, relative to the 2008 results. In other words, assaults can be replaced by erosions in dramatic fashion, that's the nature of Ontario at the moment. In fact, I suspect more ebbs and flows come the campaign, with the result being more about timing than conviction.

7 comments:

Volkov said...

To be honest, the Liberals are more likely to gain at the expense of the NDP, more than they will at the expense of the Conservatives, in Ontario.

Think about it this way; in 2008, the split at 39% Con, 34% Lib, 18% NDP, and 8% Green.

If our increase comes from the NDP, then we can win back those Northern Ontario ridings we lost that are important. But if the Cons stick around 38-39%, then we will only win back certain ridings, like the Kitcheners, and not the ridings we need to win, like Burlington or Glengarry-Prescott-Russell.

So really, if we just win NDP ridings, well, great - but we're stuck in the same boat, and the Conservatives, while sad we're not being destroyed, are still laughing. Not exactly great, you know?

Steve V said...

I think we can win from both, there are like 15 ridings we finished less than 10% back of the Cons in the last election. I think we go hard at the NDP in those ridings you mentioned, but we can flip a bunch of Con ridings under the right circumstances. Even if we don't expand support, if we just get all the Libs that stayed home in 2008 to vote, we're half way home.

marie said...

Good afternoon. I think rather than take the word of anybody I will take the word of Canadians on election day. That’s the only polls that count. I do agree that we can flip a bunch of Con ridings under the right circumstances and after having Harper at the rudder for five years and doing nothing concrete for Canada and the economy as well as his inability to do anything in parliament for the past two years, Canadians are no dummies and they will be the ones that dictate who will be the next Pm based on the record of the Harpercrits in the past 5 years and his out of control spending all for promoting himself with their tax dollars. There are a lot of people that have not benefited and lost more than they ever hoped to gain under Harpers leadership and his inept ministers and his running all over the country spending more money that we do not have to do photo ops to promote himself. Seniors are a great deal of the voters and a great deal of them are having a hard time finding funds for their meds, their food and everyday expenses.

Harper keeps telling us that he has created more jobs then were lost since the recession hit but try and live on his word are very different. If you happen to be from a small A party of losers who have been out of parliament more that in it and still earning their wages and their years towards their retirement. It just never ends. One who prorogues because he knows that he can’t win under these circumstances not once but twice in one year. A party that is in constant campaign mode on tax payers dollars, who isn’t sending the help and monies donated by our country too Haiti and still one year later still living in tent city with no clean facilities for bathroom or good safe drinking water or equipment to clean up the destruction of collapsed building with the dead still buried under. I feel for these people and their families and have nothing but contempt for our government and their inexperienced leadership who make up their polices on ignorance of what should be done.

This is my rant for the day and the longer we have this man in power the more damage he will create. May 2011 be the year that we clean up the rubbish currently in the PMO

part 1

marie said...

Part 2. Harper keeps telling us that he has created more jobs then were lost since the recession hit but try and live on his word are very different. If you happen to be from a small town, there are no decent paying jobs and in a lot of case, any jobs to be had and we find our young families moving away to larger centers every day. Those are quantified by the number of schools in there areas suffering a huge drop in enrollments. That is happening in other centers especially on Vancouver Island who have lost their jobs because of the softwood deals signed by the Cons in 2005. Closing large mills that had been in operation for over 50 years and were the live lines for the whole community. Families are still flocking to the oil patch with their families in order to make a living leaving their homes many of which had mortgages and small children of school age. It has not been a very good time for those communities up and down the island to have Harper as PM. Neither has it in any small community because they are all suffering the same faith handed to them with the economic breakdown that Harper never seen coming spending money like drunkard sailors And his legacy will be the huge deficit he will leave behind on the backs of these children their children for the next 20 plus years

A party of losers who have been out of parliament more that in it and still earning their wages and their years towards their retirement. It just never ends. One who prorogues because he knows that he can’t win under these circumstances not once but twice in one year. A party that is in constant campaign mode on tax payers dollars, who isn’t sending the help and monies donated by our country too Haiti and still one year later still living in tent city with no clean facilities for bathroom or good safe drinking water or equipment to clean up the destruction of collapsed building with the dead still buried under. I feel for these people and their families and have nothing but contempt for our government and their inexperienced leadership who make up their polices on ignorance of what should be done.

This is my rant for the day and the longer we have this man in power the more damage he will create. May 2011 be the year that we clean up the rubbish currently in the PMO
Have a nice evening all.

Cheers

rockfish said...

As we've seen in the last 2 elections, the CONs truly have come to rely on an 11th-hour momentum buster in campaigns where the Liberal vote was building. The RCMP-j'est accuse (Stephen Harper, brought to you by Judy WL!) and last time around media 'ethics-zero'... Without the first Paul Martin would have helped steer us through this economic cluster-f! while providing families with considerable help in childcare costs and opportunities, we would have addressed serious issues with our First Nations family, and made inroads towards our Kyoto commitments.
I have a sneaking suspicion that this time around Harper's going to get a little of what he gives out...

Kirk said...

Harper's message has been "hunker down and weather the storm" because he really sees no leadership role for the national govt in Canada other than a military one. His ambivalence about Canada being one nation or 10 separate provinces still represents his true view of this country.

And that opens up traditional Liberal territory.

The Liberals need to be about Canada not just "weathering the storm", they need to be about a better future and national goals. The need to be positive because people live on hope and Harper hopes for nothing more than Canada to fade away into 10 provinces occasionally acting together when it is convenient to do so.

As premier of Alberta Harper would be their Danny Williams but as Prime Minister of Canada he's just a man in the wrong job and it shows. Now the Liberals need to exploit that weakness.

Tof KW said...

Some interesting developments somewhat related to this topic, and more so to the 'Shall We Dance' thread in relation to the CPC possibly working with the BQ. Coming out of Harper's mouth today in the TO area...

PM Targets Party Subsidies

I know all the attention with this will be on Harper supposedly bankrupting the Liberals (that won't happen with this) and the NDP (it would hurt them & may actually help the Libs), but that's not who we should be watching. This will go over like a lead balloon in Quebec.

The Bloc will be all over this and will argue (quite rightly) that Quebecers pay taxes just the same, and the Bloc are the legitimate winners of the majority of Quebec seats. Therefore cutting the subsidy is an attempt to thwart the electoral will of Quebec.

Will Harper win Toronto/Ontario seats with this announcement? I think that's questionable at best. But sure as hell he just lost most of the CPC Quebec seats if he goes ahead with this, and it could possibly spread into a sovereignty debate. Keep in mind the PQ has a good shot to win the next Quebec provincial election. I can see a whole lot of unintended consequences here.

Harper is truly a dangerous man and needs to be gone.

BTW - what Harper's trying to do with this is raise the Coalition phantasm again in time for the spring election speculation.