Monday, January 10, 2011

"Taking The Fight To Our Opponents"

I don't give blanket praise for all things Liberal, but I'm pretty impressed with this Ignatieff winter riding tour announcement for a number of reasons. The Liberals spend way to much time on the defensive, why that is we can analyze for eternity. Quite refreshing to see an initiative which ignores the negativity swirling around and gets aggressive:
Ignatieff will use the winter outing to take direct aim at vulnerable rival MPs.

All 20 ridings Ignatieff is scheduled to visit are currently held by the Conservatives, NDP or Bloc Quebecois.

They are among the top ridings Liberals believe they can steal away in an election, which could come as early as this spring.

Insiders say the tour will mark a more aggressive stage of Ignatieff’s pre-election sorties, what one strategist called “taking the fight to our opponents.”

A bit of moxy, a bit of swagger, why the hell not- they're laughing at us anyway, so no danger on the perception front. I find it striking, that while everyone is digesting big, nonsensical ramifications relating to the nothing cabinet shuffle, the Liberals hatch a tour which is REAL and has clear intentions. It's sort of a "cold shower" moment, because while we talk of vulnerable seats, nobody has bothered to realize it's a TWO WAY STREET. Why in Ontario alone, there are around 20 seats the Liberals placed second, by less than 10%. In other words, TONS of seats in play, on all sides, this notion that Liberals sit idly while the Conservatives pick us off requires a tin ear. Factor in the volatility seen now for years in Ontario polls, and the one side arguments all the more suspect and intellectually lazy. I'm not suggesting for one second that vulnerabilities don't exist, that the Liberals sit precariously, only that any seasoned observer knows elections are peculiar and much is in play, risk for all participants.

I love this line:
As the strategist put it, Ignatieff intends to hammer away at a simple message: “If you vote NDP or Bloc to send Harper a message, you get Harper and he doesn’t get the message. So, if you want to get rid of Harper, you have to vote Liberal.”

I note, this angle is drawing the ire of all the other party supporters. That reaction confirms to me that this strategy is quite sound. Every party is trying to siphon off from others, so any "take offence" opinion from other partisans a bit rich to be honest. I commented early that it is shrewd to define the parameters of the next election early and often, as opposed to the hail mary "stop the Conservatives" message Liberals normally deliver in the closing days of a campaign. Get this frame out there, sell it hard, put the seed in voters minds, use succinct and pointed lines like the above, and I predict you might get some traction.

To take an offensive posture is also refreshing. That Ignatieff will also show off his campaigning stamina, another signal that should calm nerves about election abilities. Pull this tour off, after a mostly seem less summer tour, and one starts to have confidence that we will run a well oiled campaign. As far as I'm concerned, it's about time we started to "take the fight to our opponents", as one who firmly believes nothing every comes to you, you MAKE your opportunities.

This tour won't set the world on fire. This tour will probably be largely ignored in terms of certain narratives and now established mindsets. All that aside, I think this strategy, particularly the early message timing and required repetition, might well prove to be something we look back on as a key development.

19 comments:

Tof KW said...

In my neck of the woods, Kitchener-Centre was won by the CPC in the 2008 election by 339 votes. Even closer, Kitchener-Waterloo riding was won by the CPC by only 50 votes. Do the Harperbots really think these two are safe ridings for them to reclaim in 2011?

If these two are not on the list of those 20 ridings that Iggy will be visiting, then there's something really wrong in the Liberal war room. Peter Braid and Steve Woodworth are two of the most vulnerable CPC MPs there are.

Steve V said...

Ignatieff is coming to Kitchener, and you're right those ridings are completely up for grabs, "pick em" without a doubt.

Steve V said...

Somewhat related, I note on Kinsella's blog a reference to the Liberals being election ready. If you listen to the media, we are broke, hapless, just drooling on the sidewalk waiting for the big blue machine to put us out of our misery.

rockfish said...

It would be apropos if the party would also spark a 'Fight for Forty!' fundraising button, where your small donation is split among the 40 top targeted ridings that we are aiming at.
I don't know how it can be done but certainly we should be aiming for things like this.

Steve V said...

The Cons POUR money into targeted ridings from across the country, so why not?

Omar said...

I noted when I went to see him speak this summer that his posture is terrible. He either needs to bring along a stool for the speaking part of his stops or do some freakin yoga or something. He looks about 10 years older then his actual age with his shoulders all stooped and his ass stuck out like it was. I don't know, it was near the end of the summer tour so maybe his back was bothering him, but man, he didn't look too limber let alone youthful. Sixty is the new fifty, Iggy! Straighten the @#$% up!

Jean Proulx said...

Couldn't agree more with your analysis Steve. It's truly refreshing to see this kind of strategy.

Jesse said...

I think the point that needs to be hammered to NDP and BQ voters (as opposed to supporters, whom winning over is more of a long term thing) is that Harper "doesn't get the message". Do Dippers really see a chastened Harper, bowing to the will of Parliament, because of their votes for Layton's team?

Oh, and I second rockfish's comment.

Steve V said...

I think this strategy might be particularly effective in Quebec, where the flirtation with the NDP is very superficial. This is a bit of a watershed election, if the Libs can wipe the NDP from the Quebec map, they will never recover. If the NDP can hold Outremont, possibly pickup another one or two (they have some STRONG candidates), then all bets are off for the future, they could become a force eventually.

Kirk said...

It's a good strategy but as you suggest in your last paragraph Steve it will probably be ignored by the national media and especially the pundits.

Maybe the Liberals should follow the Conservative's example and sideline the national media and concentrate on local media instead. The Conservatives decided to treat the national media like dirt and that has them worshipping at the Conservative's feet.

Local campaigning and local media are good or even better for the Liberals who are ignored or scorned by the national media. This is a benefit beyond the strategy of targeting marginal ridings.

Visit a riding in a city/region and the coverage will be seen by everyone in the city and the nearby ridings on local TV and in local newspapers. Be there because you are highlighting a riding the Conservatives could lose and you chip away at the national medias spin that only the Liberals can lose seats and only the Conservatives can win them.

Steve V said...

Kirk

This will get local coverage. As for ignoring, what can you do? Might as well do something proactive, and I do believe it imperative to get this message frame out prior to an election if it will have any impact.

Kev said...

The Cons won these seats not because of a shift right on the part of voters but mostly due to the backlash against the sponsorship scandal and a poorly run campaign. These ridings are definitely in play and can be won with a well run campaign,something the Libs are usually good at

Steve V said...

Might also be a good time to mention the huge Liberal vote that stayed home in 2008. A bit of a sleeper intangible to be sure.

Tof KW said...

OK now that I see the full list, good to see Kitchener-Waterloo is a stop on the tour. As I said before these 2 ridings should be easy pickups if anywhere for the Libs.

As for the losses in the 2008 election and Lib voters staying home, remember that one was fought by a weak leader (with plenty of people not 100% behind him) on a very complicated, complete revision of the federal taxation structure that was very difficult to explain (let alone sell or defend). The Grits put the spotlight on themselves instead of on the Harper government.

No wonder they stayed home.

Do not fight the next one like that! Keep the cannon fire on Harper and do not shoot yourselves in the foot (feet?) again. That alone should bring 20 seats back for you.

The Mound of Sound said...

You don't "take the fight" to somebody if you show up empty-handed. You need weapons and in this sort of fight that means policies.

Steve V said...

The Liberals have released more policy than any opposition party in history. We can debate the merit, but... I'd add, it looks like the Cons are about to steal the home care policy plank, which shows why opposition parties are historically reticent to do so. I believe that would have been a great "kitchen table" issue that would have resonated with lots of people, quiet but important policy, gone.

Tof KW said...

Mound, just to remind everyone that Dion gave out lots of policy as well. How did that work out in 2008?

And remember Harper had absolutely no policies going into that election.

Steve V said...

We have a democratic reform package in the can as well...

Kev said...

Steve V said... We have a democratic reform package in the can as well...

That I would like to see. They really should roll that out asap, maybe created some momentum.They needn't worry about the Cons stealing that as they have zero credibility on that front