Wednesday, September 07, 2011


Every Liberal in the country needs to do one thing: stop talking to each other for an extended period of time. This is a fantastic idea that will lead to the sober recognitions that are required to survive. The problem with Liberals gathering, talking, is that it provides almost delusional comfort, taking the edge of an objectively dire situation. Liberals will say they get it, everybody is offering up all the necessary platitudes and generalizations, but in the end I see a disconnect.

I talk to fellow Liberals, and while I appreciate the tribal spunk, I'm STILL struck by the short cut mentality that exists. The problem with we Liberals, we are all students of our own history, will all still believe in the brand, even though all outside information suggests a stark landscape and even more precarious future. If you stop talking to fellow Liberals, only then can you fully appreciate how tired and spent we appear, how NO ONE shares our nostalgic view of the party, how many have left for other options, how we've completely and utterly lost a couple generations with no sign whatsoever or rebirth. These statements will lead to obvious protests, YES we do get it Steve, but it takes time! But, really, when you look at the mentality to date, it suggests no such acknowledgement.

My view of Sheila Copps is evolving. Initially, when I heard that Liberal powerbrokers saw merit it raised my hackles on the renewal front. However, as time marches on, I'm starting to see Copps as an acknowledge that perhaps we really are bereft of new and fresh talent, she's a testament to the slow death. I don't mean to offend, Copps brings PLENTY to the table, but if this is the best our braintrust can fathom, if this is their first choice to re-introduce ourselves to Canadians, then it speaks to an inability to appreciate and/or a sober testament that no new generation is coming, they've left.

It all sounds so harsh, but let's look at certain realistic probabilities:

-I see a ZERO percent chance the Liberals form the next government

-I see a TEN percent chance the Liberals become the official opposition the next election

-I see a TWENTY percent chance the Liberals prop up the NDP as the next government

People can quibble, but I'll whip out the electoral map in a heartbeat if need be, it's a realistically bleak short term picture. Truth is, unless the NDP implode, Canadians will now see the Official Opposition as the first alternative should we tire of the Harper goverment, overcoming that mindset hurdle is herculian in nature and can only be achieved with BOLD actions. Sheila Copps isn't bold, it's more of the same. Liberals need to stop talking to each other, only then will we fully realize Canadians have stopped listening.


Jerry Prager said...

Not being a Liberal I don't share your pessimism: offer real change, sound policy that will lead to a renewal of Canadian democratic economics, and not more party power broking self protection policies and you'll look like gold compared to Harper, who's corruption will continued unabated: he will end his career as hated as Mulroney. Be the hope that Obama offered but never supplied, do what democracy needs and not what Big Business wants. Jettison the continental corporatists in your party, liberalize in the direction of the majority rather than for the benefit of the minority for heaven's sake and all will be well.

Steve V said...


I don't disagree with you, my point is we aren't the first option to "offer real change". As well, if you want to carry the change mantle, perhaps you should put something new in the window- nothing says change like the rat pack!

Sean Cummings said...

I can't see the Quebec NDP bloc sustaining itself for four years. Without that, you don't have an NDP official opposition come next election. This assumes, of course, there is no merger between Libs and Dippers. And as for a merger, who knows? Does the Liberal establishment want to be the junior player because of the NDP's new found electoral success? I just can't see it.

Jerry Prager said...

I guess from my perspective the NDP isn't capable of making the changes I would like to see. And let's not lose sight of the fact that a Liberal government in Toronto has always been balanced by a federal Con government. McGuinty's success almost guarantees a failure in Ottawa.
Ignatieff thought the party should be led by a young non white woman. But that in itself may be a new mannequin in the window. But represent genuine needed change.

Steve V said...

"I can't see the Quebec NDP bloc sustaining itself for four years."

You could be right, but then consider the Libs aren't the first alternative option and you see the problem. There is very little chance potential disgruntled NDP supporters move to the Libs, just like Bloc supporters bypassed us. As well, the NDP aren't in gov't so where does the backlash start from? It really is a perfect environment to maintain, no accountability, the alternatives aren't attractive.

Steve V said...


Honestly, I'm not trying to be intentionally negative, it's just I see a very, very precarious situation and the attitude to date doesn't digest that reality in the least.

Möbius said...

Steve, I can't agree with you more. I once saw the Libs as an alternative when the Mulroney PC's went off the rails. The sheen has worn off, and so I now support the "least unfavourable" option for a fiscal conservative.

There seems to be an opportunity here somewhere.

sharonapple88 said...

I don't think the Liberal party needs Copps as president. Ron Hartling is a stronger candidate. He really seems ready to put in place a 308 strategy.

CK said...

Like Sean, I don't see the Quebec faction of the NDP holding all or even most of its' seats in 4 years neither. I can see them holding some, but definitely not most. As I've mentioned several times, folks voted for Jackmania, not the party and also, there was a strong case for "throw the bums out" or "none of the above". The proof out there is that despite all those seats, NDP membership is very low and it doesn't look like it will improve anytime soon. I do, however, wonder how many of those NDP voters (assuming some had memberships to other parties, of course) retained Bloc Quebecois memberships?

I think the Bloc will make a comeback of sorts and wouldn't be surprised to see some of those young NDP MPs to cross over to the Bloc, as the traditional NDP base in English Canada will clash with them.

Another thing to remember, Harper does appear to have on his agenda to resurrect Bill C-12 (I think it was), adding 30 more seats in Ontario, BC and Alberta. Therefore, I don't see too much attention being paid to La Belle province by any party.

The NDP only had a net gain of 8 seats outside of Quebec.

Those are the reasons I don't believe the NDP can hang on to what they have.

It's time for both parties to consider a merger; at the very least, realise that my enemy's enemy is my friend.

Steve V said...


Don't really disagree, but my point is that even if NDP stumble those votes aren't coming our way, just like they bypassed us when Bloc collapsed.

CK said...

Not in Quebec, with the exception of some federalist ridings in the Greater Montreal area.

However, there may be possibilities in the rest of CAnada and maybe even some of those new ridings that will be surely created.

Either way, I don't think either the Liberals nor the NDP can go this alone.