A rehashed title, only because it's so TRUE! The new HD poll has tongues wagging, as people digest an apparent massive reversal of fortune. I would still caution the poll as an outlier, but what's become clear: Tim Hudak's Progressive Conservatives have completely BLOWN a once seemingly insurmountable lead and the campaign has just begun. My working thesis, an inverse relationship between PC fortunes and voters learning more about Tim Hudak is closing in on "law" designation.
Who would have thought two months ago that one could actually say "have the Liberals peaked too early?" and not be laughed at. However, as stated previously, Ontario is a very volatile place, those that declared McGuinty done really don't appreciate the fluidity in this province, nor the impact of true focus. Now that the campaign has finally began, all bets are off, any outcome possible and from the Liberal perspective that's a terrific relativity.
I think the Liberals ads have been fantastic to date, the type I LONGED for in the federal campaign. McGuinty taking on his popularity directly, then pivoting to a laundry list of accomplishments, is a brilliant ad. As well, the theme of working together, as opposed to Hudak's divisive posturing, I sense that is resonating with a public starved for positive vision. As well, Hudak has suffered through many negative headlines, his party is showing cracks, he looks opportunistic rather than principled and above all, he's a DUD. McGuinty may not be the most popular leader in the country- although I sense a limited rethink occuring- but voters aren't going to hand the keys to anyone, should they look amateurish or not up to snuff.
This campaign is going to be fascinating, the Liberals now have wind in their sails and Hudak will have to react to questions about lost support, the pressure is on. A lot will depend on how the NDP perform, they could be anything from afterthought, to spoiler, to true contender. The key moment, obviously the debate, but in this campaign the stakes seem even higher.
So far, so good for the Ontario Liberals...