Monday, October 03, 2011

Dueling Polls

Two polling heavyweights out today with different results, both conducted during the same time period. If you're a Liberal, then EKOS acts as a powerful elixir, just don't look at the Nanos which actually gives the DUD the nod. What to make of it all?

EKOS:
37.8% LPO
30.6% PC
22.7% NDP
7.3% Green
1.6% other

NANOS:
36.4% PC
35.6% LPO
25.7% NDP
1.2% Green

Perhaps an exercise in polls providing little clue to actual results? Here you have EKOS showing the Liberals moving into potential majority position, whereas Nanos would likely put the PC's into power, a bigger disconnect we rarely see. EKOS shows no NDP bounce, which Nanos highlighted yesterday, only to see a slight ebb today. Additionally, when it comes to likely voters EKOS finds the Libs and PC's do better, whereas the NDP falls to 19.3%.

We do see a consistent pattern with the two pollsters, Nanos tends to show little relative Green support, whereas Graves does, we saw this divergence federally as well. I find 1.2% for the Greens a bit low from Nanos, but EKOS at 7.3% also looks quite high, relative to what others are finding: Green support looks weak this election.

One thing I've noticed is that, with Nanos in particular, for all the talk of momentum, if you look at his graph it's been pretty stable for the last three weeks. To this amateur, Nanos looks more statistical noise than any real trend (not withstanding results prior to September 11). In a more limited sense, EKOS also shows a fairly pedestrian trendline, which suggests a leveling out of support perhaps, after the big early moves in this campaign and pre-writ.

So in conclusion, NDP spoiler, NDP afterthought, Libs surging or losing and the DUD a DUD or a Premier. Alright then...

20 comments:

sharonapple88 said...

It's like the election is Schrödinger's cat . Anything you want to believe is possible. The results aren't known until the box is lifted..... I hate uncertainty. :P

DL said...

Meanwhile McGuinty is having a hissy fit stating that he REFUSES any form of cooperation with any other party - no coalition, no accord, no entente - he is just doing the Harper routine and saying "give me a majority or give me death!"

I guess this means that if McGuinty doesn't get a majority - he will either resign immediately and ask Hudak to form a government or he will subject us to daily games of Russian roulette instead of trying to do a medium term deal for stable government.

Why do Liberal have this obsession with refusing to work with anyone? I can't see this line being very attractive to the voters. The vast majority of people like to see politicians and parties try to work together and find common ground. I'm not sure how many people will be drawn to the Ontario Liberal line of threatening to take their marbles home if the voters don't give them a blank cheque.

Whatever happened to the idea of "progressive" parties trying to cooperate more??? I guess the Ontario Liberals didn't get the message.

sharonapple88 said...

DL, all parties want to appear strong in the final days of the election. "Our leader is strong like bull" and all that. The Globe & Mail explains why the NDP would like to talk about a coalition at this stage.

Essentially, the NDP isn't likely to win the election, but they can make themselves appear strong by arguing that they could be kingmakers.

To be honest, I don't think it's premature to talk about a coalition. Things like that should come after a vote.

*A note on the NDP taking Bramalea—Gore—Malton (as mentined in the G&M article): The Forum riding results for the riding were:

PC: 36.3%
Lib: 35.3%
NDP: 23.7%

Magic eight-balling it... not likely.

Steve V said...

Geez DL, what do you expect him to say? Sounds like you're the one having the hissy fit :)

DL said...

He could say nothing. He could simply say "we are running to win the election" and have no further comment. But explicitly ruling out working with any other parties after the election in any way whatsoever - seems gratuitous and pointless and just makes him seem stubborn, intransigent and unwilling to work with anyone. This is not what voters like to hear from their leaders.

As for Bramalea-Gore-Malton. Forum did a follow-up survey in that riding with a much larger sample size (n = 900) and reading the names of the local candidates and they had the NDP leading with 34% to the Liberals 31.5 and the Tory back at 25%. Its clearly a tossup but don't be surprised if you see a splotch of orange in Peel region for the first time on Thursday night.

Steve V said...

No, he said exactly what he should in the dying days of a VERY MUCH IN DOUBT campaign. If the roles were reversed, the NDP would be doing the EXACT same thing.

Is this amateur hour?

DL said...

I don't think you would ever have the NDP saying in advance of an election that they rule out ANY FORM OF COOPERATION whatsoever with any other party. The simple solution is to say NOTHING. Just "we are running to win". What's the point of closing off all options unnecessarily and sounding intransigent and arrogant?

Its no skin off my back...if McGuinty gets back in with either a minority or a majority he will almost certainly end up doing a lot of extremely unpopular stuff. I don't think Andrea Horwath has any desire to be the "Nick Clegg of Ontario" and get tarred with being in league with McGuinty. I'm just saying that as a campaign tactic - I don't think it looks good to the voters to come across as intransigent and as refsuing to work with others.

Steve V said...

I don't think Andrea Horwath has any desire to be the "Nick Clegg of Ontario" and get tarred with being in league with McGuinty.

Just be quiet would ya. Geez, you can be a total hypocrite.

sharonapple88 said...

Why do Liberal have this obsession with refusing to work with anyone?

Really? NDP = cooperation, and the Liberals = stubborn-ox.

It's never as simple as that. During the 1999 Ontario election, the the NDP spent the election bashing the Liberals. (The OFL joined in.) During the last federal election, the NDP did not cooperate with the Liberal or the Green Party. (Guy posting this was an NDPer.) In Manitoba former Federal Liberal MPS are backing NDP candidates.

The NDP aren't always saints, and the Liberals aren't always the devil (and I guess the point could be extended to the Conservatives).

Omar said...

Blah, blah, blah.. The PCs are going to win. In the province which basically handed Harper his majority we will see McGuinty's Liberals fall. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.

Steve V said...

Blah, blah, blah is right...

DL said...

Sharonapple - I think its normal for parties to compete with one another during an election campaign - but that doesn't preclude them working together AFTER the election in a minority situation. I guess Dalton McGuinty would rather see Hudak be Premier than cooperate with the NDP. What's his problem? Why is Dalton sooo uncooperative?

sharonapple88 said...

As for Bramalea-Gore-Malton. Forum did a follow-up survey in that riding with a much larger sample size (n = 900) and reading the names of the local candidates and they had the NDP leading with 34% to the Liberals 31.5 and the Tory back at 25%. Its clearly a tossup but don't be surprised if you see a splotch of orange in Peel region for the first time on Thursday night.

I'd be surprised if it went Orange. Sid Ryan touted the methology as being the same, but I wonder.... In the first poll, they appeared to be tallying preference. The second survey was preference and leaning. Preference isn't the same as leaning:

"A small undecided figure means that the polling company has probed with follow up questions to finding out who a person is most likely to vote for, and included them in the pool of decided voters. But these leaners, as they're known, are expressing a preference, not a decision. They can also be quite volatile and either change their party preference or even decide not to vote at all. "

The addition of leanings into the survey might explain why in Bramalea—Gore—Malton, the NDP jumps to first with 34.1% from 3rd place at 23.7%. That's a leap of over 10.4%. Did something really happen between the first and second survey to explain the jump. The second survey points to the debates, but most people didn't see any winner.

I guess Dalton McGuinty would rather see Hudak be Premier than cooperate with the NDP.

And talking about a coalition during the middle of an election will help the Liberals and hurt the Conservatives? I still don't see it....

As for running to see the Conservatives in power... that would be the NDP during the 1999 Ontario Election.

"Instead of presenting the party's positions in a positive way or contrasting them with the weaknesses of the Harris government, Hampton embarked on a new negative campaign that conceded victory to the Tories and focused its attack on the Liberals and, in particular, Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty Dalton James Patrick McGuinty, Jr., MPP (born July 19, 1955, in Ottawa, Ontario) is a Canadian lawyer and politician and, since October 23, 2003, Premier of Ontario. He is the twenty-fourth premier of Ontario, and the second Roman Catholic to hold this office. Beginning with the debate, the right and the left, in unintentional collusion, ignored each other and attacked the centre. The main beneficiary was Harris: PC poll numbers went up and Liberal support weakened, until the last two weeks of the campaign when the strategic voting movement became public."

Marpman said...

Interesting to note the similarities in the campaign. Throw out the coalition idea, the media grabs it and runs with it. Similar to the Federal Tories. If I lived in Ontario I would be wary of the nicey-nice between Harper and Hudak...next he will put on the blue sweater.
Vote wisely Ontario.

Steve V said...

New Nanos out tonight, now he looks like EKOS:

#OLP 38 #PCPO 33.2 #ONDP 25.8

Libs up 3, PC down 3, NDP same

Steve V said...

EKOS has new numbers coming out tomorrow, judging by a twitter exchange, it looks like a Lib majority potential number scenario. Things might be moving now...

marie said...

DL, I would have thought you had better sense then your post suggests.
Sad and simply ridiculous

Whose guilty of a hissy fit now DL?

I would swear that your accusing the liberals of the same traits as the NDP.Your beginning to act like the reformatories and that's a real problem. Jack Layton must be turning in his grave to see the level his supporters have become since the last federal election.

Steve is right, it appears you are the one having a hissy fit

Dave Brodbeck said...

I think Nanos uses a rolling sample. If this is the case, either the day's worth of sample that were dropped, or the one that was added had a huge effect.

Steve V said...

Yes, and that's why it's such a big move.

sharonapple88 said...

New Nanos out tonight, now he looks like EKOS:
#OLP 38 #PCPO 33.2 #ONDP 25.8


Those homophobic flyers
are really working out for the Conservatives, aren't they.