The Butterfly Effect

Quite a few news stories today debating whether or not Iraq is now in the midst of civil war. What is particularly scary, aside from the obvious implications for Iraq, is the broader conflict that would follow.

The tensions between Sunni and Shia are not confined to Iraq. We have already seen massive demonstrations by Shiites across the region protesting the shrine bombings. A country like Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to an escalation in violence. The events of the last days may provide the final spark that allows Pakistan's Sunni-Shia conflict to bubble over out of control. Afghanistan has also seen a rise in Sunni-Shia conflict, which threatens to destabilize an already precarious situation. Religion trumps any sense of nationalism by a wide margin in most of the regions countries. If Iraq falls into a sectarian war, I wonder how long before the rest of the region is draw into the conflict.

Iraq is home to the holiest of places for the Shia. Can anyone realistically hope that Shia throughout the region will not rise up to protect their religion from the Sunni? It is counter-intuitive to say a country like Iran would sit idly by while a religious war rages next door. Predominately Sunni countries would also feel compelled to assist their brethren out of duty, and/or counter Iranian involvement. The entire situation could easily spiral out of control to the point of a war the world has not yet seen.

Alarmist? Factor in the fact that the Americans and British are right in the middle, with no way out. Does anyone truly expect the coalition forces to remain disengaged while Iraq crumbles? The fact that the world community is currently pressuring Iran serves as another excuse to enter the fight. Any overt Iranian involvement to assist the Iraqi Shia would force the coalition to act and that would translate into support for the Sunni. In the grand scheme, Washington would calculate that the Shia represent a more significant threat to American interests and alliances would form accordingly.

Canada, which has now taken the lead in Afghanistan, would be surrounded by instability, on all sides. Coupled with the new government's apparent preference to be America's eager lap dog and you have a recipe wherein Canada is engaged. I also don't put it past the American administration to calculate that "a divide and conquer" strategy against Islam may be to America's benefit. I fear, that we make look back at these last few days in the same way historians point to Serbia when they speak of WWI.