Thursday, February 16, 2006

Poll: Good News for Harper

Decima has released a new poll that shows the early controversies haven't hurt the Conservatives fortunes:
The Conservatives would win another minority and the NDP would gain at the expense of the Liberals if Canadians had a chance to redo the Jan. 23 election, a new poll suggests.

The Decima Research survey of 1,010 adult Canadians, conducted between Feb. 9 and 13, suggests there has been no significant change in national support for the Tories.

Thirty-five per cent of respondents said they would vote Conservative, compared with 36 per cent who cast ballots on election day.

The poll put support for the Liberals at 25 per cent, down five percentage points from Jan. 23.

Twenty-four per cent of respondents backed the NDP, up from 17.5 per cent election day...

Food for thought when considering the relative sickness of the NDP:
"Finally, the NDP number confirms yet again that the NDP enjoys a bigger opportunity than they have in the past, because of effective leadership communications and a fiscal situation that makes more NDP policy ideas seem affordable."

The poll also found that the Bloc's support has fallen to 35%, down from 42%. The Liberal numbers aren't terribly surprising, given the current transition period which doesn't offer a clear figurehead.

This poll confirms the Ipsos results, which also showed that there has been no erosion in Conservative support, despite the cabinet controversy. Again, I would attribute this fact as more a statement of Canadians willingness to give the new government a chance, in the spirit of fairness. However, it just seems intuitive that the Emerson fiasco has tarnished the Conservative commitment to ethical purity.

The NDP is in a virtual deadheat with the Liberals and Conservatives in vote rich Ontario, which should embolden Layton. With all the recent blogosphere debate as to the practicality of the NDP, these numbers should silence any criticism that the Party is not a relevant alternative. I think this parliament provides the NDP with a golden opportunity to siphon supporters from the Liberals, as they struggle to retool and find a new voice. I suspect NDP strategists are trying to exploit the current conditions and this may explain their early aggressive tone.

I think the cabinet controversy does register, not simply a minor detail that has no bearing. However, given the timing of a shiny new government, Canadians prefer to withhold judgement until we learn more about how this government plans to govern. Polling has clearly shown that Canadians don't approve of Emerson, but the overall numbers support the premise that Canadians also look at support in totality.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Of all the polls that exist out there. I would say Decima is the most pro-conservative biased poll of them all. Did you see their poll on the privitization of medicare? Obviously bought and paid for by Conservatives looking to privitize our medical system. Decima is the last poll I would suggest as representative of Canadian people. Show me a a CPAC poll and maybe I'll take a second look.

Steve V said...

anon

You may be right, but this poll is in line with the earlier Ipsos poll that showed no Conservative erosion. I agree, a CPAC poll would probably be more credible. I never take the polls as absolute, just fun speculation.

Toronto Tory said...

Parties that win always do well in polls immediately after elections.

I'm surprised that the NDP is so high in this one though.. good for them, I guess.