The Decima Research poll found that 25 per cent of Canadians believed the two parties should unite.
Voters who supported either of the two parties in last winter's election were even more receptive to the idea: 36 per cent of Liberals favoured a merger and 32 per cent of New Democrats.
Moreover, a Decima analysis of the 2006 election results suggests that had the two parties joined forces during last winter's election, they could have blocked the Conservatives from winning a minority government.
I must say, I don't see anything impressive about these numbers. Yes 25% of voters are in favor of a union, but that leaves a whooping 75% that want the status quo. Two thirds of Liberals, and close to 70% of NDP supporters are against a melding, so translating those numbers into "receptive" seems like a stretch. If anything, I would argue that there appears to be a great deal of resistence to any talk of a merger.
However, this poll has added to the discussion and the bad spin has given a shaky legitimacy to the idea. As the chatter intensifies, we may come to a situation where initial resistence becomes tempered as all parties adjust to the idea. It is worth remembering the hostile reaction to the initial overtures to unite the right. In my mind this poll shows a great void, but its publication may offer support to the bad conclusions. I just heard a local station on the street interviewing people, with the question "Do you support a Liberal/NDP merger?".
7 comments:
Steve
the poll doesn't give the figures for those opposed - there may have been a substantial block of "wouldn't care either way" voters. However, I agree that it's a small positive group to base that view on.
The NDP are in a weird place because on one side the Greens are taking environment votes (because of the NDP alliance with the auto sector) and the auto sector unions are showing every intention of siding with the Libs when it suits them.
If the NDP did merge with the Libs they would not bring all their base with them (as with the CPC/Alliance merger), and the Greens would probably move back left to mop up those votes (as they probably will do anyway with Jim Harris gone).
Looking at the actual Liberal record in government (Chretien and later) as opposed to the platitudes they spout during an election campaign, it would seem more appropriate for them to merge with the Conservatives.
A merging of the left of centre is inevitable. This does not necessarily mean a merger of the NDP and LPC; it could take place as a leaching of support from the NDP to the LPC, as voters come to realize just how extreme – in Canadian terms – the New Tory party under Harper is.
The New Tories are not at all a merger of the old Alliance/Reform party with the old Progressive Conservatives. It is a party which resulted from a takeover of the PCs by the Reform/Alliance party, aided by the sellout of the PC leader. As a result the policies and value systems of the New Tories are solidly rightwing Alliance/Reform ones. Most voters do not appreciate that yet, but policies do become laws and programs, and the results will be apparent to all within months.
The NDP is probably doomed to shrink substantially on the federal scene once the LPC has a new leader, and has finished a review of its own policies. I expect the LPC to move leftwards from Martin's amorphous Tory-like policies, and to have a harder edged demarcation of its policies as compared to the New Tories.
Layton asked voters to lend him their votes. Some did, and Harper took power as a result. Now progressive voters will consider the impact of a rightwing neocon government under Harper brought into power and propped up by Layton's colossal blunder, and lend their votes for mainstream Canadian values, by voting for a reinvigorated Liberal government.
Layton will then become another footnote on the Canadian political landscape, along with others who gambled and lost, such as Joe Clark.
mark
That is a great point about the Green Party. If there was to be a merge, the Green Party could well fill the void and essentially put everything back to square one.
curiousity
I think your analysis is bang on. Layton reached the high water mark with disaffected voters(myself included), but as the reality of prolonged Conservative reign sinks it, people will move to the Liberals- especially if the party moves left, which seems inevitable given the leadership crop.
I also believe the true Alliance powerbase won't reveal itself until after a majority is attained.
I agree with your ideas, though I don't think the Greens would pick up so many. I find it hard to believe that so many people lent Layton their vote. It is well known here in Toronto that the guy had to be kicked out of social housing he had a hand in. Seems he was squatting with Olivia when he was quite financially capable of owning a fairly large home on his wages. Seems all politicians want some sort of entitlement.
anonymous
Do you believe that Dalton McGuinty is an "evil reptilian kitten-eater from another planet" as well?
Layton and Chow were paying full-market rent for a unit in a mixed income co-op. By doing so, they helped to provide rent-geared-to-income units for low-income earners.
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