Gore (where included) 11.7%
As early as mid-June, the gap between the two frontrunners was around 9%. Since that time, Clinton's support has swelled, while Obama has remained stagnant. These trends, in spite of the fact, that Obama outpaced Clinton in fundraising for the second quarter, in both the number of donors and total figures. The current gap in support of 17% is large by any measure, which suggests a measure of "inevitability" around Clinton.
However, national polls are a very incomplete part of the story in the Democratic primary system, the state findings convey a much more competitive race, with no clear frontrunner. In the Iowa, first in the nation caucus, the average polling finds:
Clinton 26%Translation-still anybody's to win, with an incredible amount of momentum at stake. We also see stagnant numbers, which means Clinton's national uptick hasn't translated to Iowa itself.
Nevada caucus, five days after Iowa:
Clinton 41%Of all the early contests, probably the least significant, given the more robust campaigning in Iowa, and the looming vote in New Hampshire. I don't consider this a make or break caucus for any of the contenders.
Next up, the all important first primary in New Hampshire. Again, a tight race:
Clinton 30.3%Obama has the momentum here, with Edwards fading badly, Clinton stagnant. Another important factor, Clinton's negatives are almost double Obama's in New Hampshire, which would tend to give Obama the edge in ability to grow his numbers in the future
South Carolina primary next, again no clear gap:
Clinton 34%The trends show a tightening, Clinton actually enjoyed a wider margin in earlier polls. Pretty weak numbers for Edwards, considering his supposed "southern appeal".
Florida, same day:
The one state, where Clinton enjoys a massive lead. However, if Obama could pull off South Carolina, which is feasible, no one emerges with any clear momentum.
If you look at other state polls, you find Clinton well ahead, but those are largely irrelevant, when you factor in the historical significance of these early contests. The good news for Clinton, she is the only one to score well in all the races, whereas the others show some weakness. You could still classify Clinton as the frontrunner, but the primary picture is far different than the national polling suggests.