Sunday, August 26, 2007

Fabricating Momentum

According to Angus Reid, President Bush is enjoying an uptick in support:
Public backing for the United States president is gradually improving, according to four recent public opinion polls. In a survey by Opinion Dynamics released by Fox News, 33 per cent of respondents approve of how George W. Bush is handling his job, up one point since mid-July.

It is almost laughable, that right after the assertion that Bush is bouncing back, they site a poll that shows a 1% rise since last month, statistically IRRELEVANT. Here is a quick run down of the four polls approval, which someone lead to this conclusion:

33%(August 22)
32%(July 18)


32%(August 16)
34%(August 5)





It is baffling that you conclude Bush is "gradually improving", when one of the four shows an erosion, one is basically the same, the other well within the margin of error. You could say that Bush has hit bottom and stabilized, but to suggest momentum is playing loose with the facts. If you average the four polls, you find a net +1 for Bush, hardly noteworthy.


Dame said...

This is telling a LOT about Angus Reid .... and how we should read Angus Reid polls.. /nothing new /

Steve V said...


It's not just AR, I've heard references to Bush bouncing back on the networks as well. It's almost like somebody says it, others pickup on it, and nobody really bothers to check the validity of the statement.

Anonymous said...

Bush has higher polling numbers than Stephane Dion. That's awesome.