Thursday, August 02, 2007

Going Nowhere

Despite bragging about the government's achievements, Harper and the Conservatives remain stuck in the polls:
A new Ipsos Reid poll finds that the Conservatives, at 34% support nationally...some Tories may be scratching their heads to figure out what they have to do to pull away from the Liberal Party that follows closely at 32% support nationally. The New Democratic Party, under the leadership of Jack Layton, has also settled in at 17% support. The Bloc Quebecois has dropped 2% points nationally, receiving the support of 8% of Canadians, the same as the Green Party.

Once again, Ipsos has some bizarre regional totals, with concerning margin of errors. Does anyone really believe these results for British Columbia, particularly the woeful NDP numbers?:
Cons 37%
Libs 35%
NDP 17%
Greens 11%
All the other polls, show a three-way, tight race in British Columbia, so I would characterize the NDP showing as a anomaly.

The only provinces with reasonable margins of error, that you can have any confidence in, are the Ontario and Quebec results. Both show some reason for optimism for the Liberals:
Ontario

Libs 40%
Cons 35%
NDP 16%
Greens 8%

Quebec

Bloc 33%
Libs 23%
Cons 23%
NDP 13%
Greens 7%

Ontario numbers mirror the last poll, while the Quebec results show a marked uptick for the Liberals(+5%), and further Bloc erosion (-4%).

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sorry the title is "Going nowhere" you must be referring to Dion right?

That man is such a sad site I almost feel sorry for your party. Almost.

Steve V said...

"That man is such a sad site I almost feel sorry for your party."

Let's assume you're right. What does it say about the Conservatives, that they are tied with a party lead by such a "sad" person. The more you point to Dion's failings, the more you draw attention to Harper's complete and utter failure to expand his support. Why can't Harper capitalize? What is so fundamentally wrong with this government, that they are drawing less support than their miniscule minority result in the election, despite having no credible opposition? It is sad, really sad.

JimBobby said...

That man is such a sad site...

Is he a man or a site? Or, did you maybe mean "sight". Is there something about Dion's physical appearance that you feel is sad? Too short? Too pale?

I prefer to judge leaders by their non-physical attributes. Unless, of course, we're talkin' about a certain pasty-faced fatboy who moves like a cardboard cutout.

I ain't a Grit but I seen Steve V take a good number o' shots at Dion's lacklustre popularity. You know, reality-based stuff.

JB

Chester N. Scoville said...

I suspect that there just aren't more than about 35% of Canadians, ever, under any circumstances, who are willing to vote for these new Conservatives.

Steve V said...

"I suspect that there just aren't more than about 35% of Canadians, ever, under any circumstances, who are willing to vote for these new Conservatives."

It's a great country isn't it?

In_The_Centre said...

These are the kind of poll numbers that should be expected when forced to choose between an awkward weenie and an authoritative robot :), both who completely lack any ability to sell a powerful enough message/vision that would resonate beyond their respective bases.

At this point, I would wager more Canadians are interested in the Democratic and Republican primaries

-ITC

Steve V said...

ITC

Can we put you down under "undecided"? I don't really disagree :)

In_The_Centre said...

Actually, I was ready to park my vote with the Green Party and was blown away by their recently released spectacular environmental plan. They nailed down the use of proper market mechanisms to change consumer behavior on the kind of scale needed to reduce Canada's carbon footprint

However, their insistence on meeting Kyoto targets has left me undecided once again. (Yep, I’m one of those rare pro-environment, pro-business, pro-intervention/Afghanistan, anti-Kyoto individuals)

And for the record, I was a staunch Liberal for about a decade up until this year.

-ITC

Steve V said...

"I was a staunch Liberal for about a decade up until this year."

I really like the Greens environmental plan too, I call it the adult agenda.

What happened this year, dare I ask?