Premier Dalton McGuinty's governing party has 41% voter support against 36% for the Conservatives, compared with a seven-point lead in an Aug. 24 Ipsos Reid poll. The New Democratic and Green parties trail at 17% and 6%, respectively.
The early numbers translate to a predicted Liberal majority government of 55 seats out of 107, according to a model based on the past five publicly released polls. The Tories are currently projected to take 40 seats, with 12 for the NDP.
Why I remain cautious, in saying the school issue hasn't hurt Tory:
The Ipsos Reid telephone poll was conducted with a random sample of 801 respondents between Aug. 30 and Sept. 8. The results are considered accurate within 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
I can't remember the last time I saw a poll with a ten day sample window, particularly in a fluid environment during an election. Important to note, the Tory "creationism" gaffe broke on September 5, which means the vast majority of this poll was taken prior to the fallout. You can't draw an definitive conclusions from this poll because the timing doesn't do justice to all the bad press Tory received. While the poll canvasses opinion on faith-based schools, finding weak support for Tory's initiative, that conclusion doesn't necessarily translate to the events of last week specifically.
I'm somewhat suspicious of the long sample time, especially with a 800 respondent total, which amounst to a paltry 80 people polled per day. I think it best to wait for another poll, before anyone draws any conclusions about the impact of Tory's gaffe, because there is a slight odor to the methodology with this one.