Wednesday, February 04, 2009

NDP Voters Split On Budget

We now have two polls, gauging budget support, with one particularly noteworthy finding. Both the Strategic Counsel and Decima polls provide almost identical findings, when the question of budget support is put to NDP voters. Yesterday's Decima poll asked a question on the Liberal position, which provided a fascinating result:
The new leader of the Liberal Party, Michael Ignatieff, has indicated that the Liberal Party will allow the budget to pass, but has put the Conservative government on probation, and has indicated that the government needs to formally report on progress about how the new spending is stimulating the economy every 3 months. Do you strongly support, support, oppose or strongly oppose the way Mr. Ignatieff has reacted to the budget?
A full 68% of NDP voters supported Ignatieff's decisions, while only a feeble 21% disagreed. This type of result explains the NDP's attack ads, more about shoring up their own base, rather than any realistic outreach (I suspect there was some knowledge within the NDP, that they were on the wrong side of this issue).

That result aside, on the very clear question of budget support, the Strategic Counsel poll found:
“The Opposition parties should support the federal budget”

NDP voters 47% agree, 53% disagree

A clear split, by any measure. What's striking, these results are replicated by the Decima poll:
Do you think the House of Commons should pass the budget or not?

NDP voters 41% pass, 41% don't pass

The numbers for overall support are ridiculously on side for passage, and this is borne out in the subset you would expect to see the most resistance, given the official stance. The fact that NDP supporters are evenly split, putting the Ignatieff decision making question aside, shows a real disconnect, when you consider all the partisan rhetoric we've heard. Two polls, identical results, the NDP needs to convince it's base first, before anyone dare entertain the "come join our cause" limp rallying cry.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

But Steve at the end they still are NDP supporters which means despite they opposition to their party's stance they will still cast a ballot for them anyway. So do these polls really matter any more than providing fancy headlines and two-day stories?

I think you are focusing too much on questions that won't really matter all that much on how people will actually VOTE.

Only thing that matters really is "who you gonna vote for?" and so far there's no evidence we've gotten a boost on that from our budget response. I would be shocked if we dropped in the polls, but not surprised at all if we just tread water staying around 30% in the first polls gauging support post-budget.

Steve V said...

"I think you are focusing too much on questions that won't really matter"

Actually, I've had my eye on the prize the entire time.

The Right is Where it's At said...

In my opinion these typs of polls on the budget aren't worth the papper they are written on. I just wonder how many of those people who were polled actually know whats in the budget itself. My guess is not to many. But hey they are in favor or against it. But I digress. Just thought I throw in my two cents.

Steve V said...

Just to add, to the "two-day story" nonsense, these polls are critical, when you plot the path ahead. One of the biggest concerns, if the Libs rejected the coalition, would they face a blowback in Quebec, where the concept was popular? Answer, a resounding NO. Will the Liberals risk being painted as "propping up" the Conservatives? If you can't even get your own base to buy into the notion, it's a pretty good indication that the Liberals are fine in the short term. How did Ignatieff perform during his first, big test, on the most critical vote of the year? Answer, amazing well, he's come across as serious and receptive to public will. How has Harper emerged from this crisis? Battered and bruised, seen as partisan and acting in self interest.

If these questions and answers don't matter to you, well then... This issue has lasting impact, how it was handled, the response, very relevant moving forward.

Steve V said...

Right

I bet you didn't think that on the coalition polls, did ya? Exactly.

Militant Dipper said...

I would imagine some of the NDP supporters who want the budget to pass do so because they may not wish to be part of the coalition that may have resulted from defeating the govt. They may feel this way because they are uncomfortable with Ignatieff or his position on Gaza or because they are very partisan and don't wish to be associated with any other party. We have both seen how the coalition question has divided Liberals. I imagine the same is true of NDP supporters.

Steve V said...

"They may feel this way because they are uncomfortable with Ignatieff or his position on Gaza or because they are very partisan and don't wish to be associated with any other party."

Wow, that's a real stretch. Another try perhaps?

Militant Dipper said...

My point Steve was that the coalition possibility may have influenced people's decisions. A vote for the budget is not necessarily a vote for the budget. It may be a vote against the coalition. Certainly some Liberals were for the budget because they were against the coalition.

rww said...

So the NDP has decided to lead rather than follow. What of it.

Steve V said...

You're only leading if people want to follow, otherwise you just in the cheap seats watching others do it. Instability and/or another election isn't leading at this point, it's irresponsible.

Dipper

Even if that's true, it's still a statement that people wanted this budget, as opposed to the alternatives.

The Right is Where it's At said...

To Steve:

"Just to add, to the "two-day story" nonsense, these polls are critical, when you plot the path ahead. One of the biggest concerns, if the Libs rejected the coalition, would they face a blowback in Quebec, where the concept was popular? Answer, a resounding NO. Will the Liberals risk being painted as "propping up" the Conservatives? If you can't even get your own base to buy into the notion, it's a pretty good indication that the Liberals are fine in the short term. How did Ignatieff perform during his first, big test, on the most critical vote of the year? Answer, amazing well, he's come across as serious and receptive to public will. How has Harper emerged from this crisis? Battered and bruised, seen as partisan and acting in self interest."

I would agree with you that in the short term Mr.Harper comes out battered and bruised.But if you remembered back when Mr.Harper asked the GG to prorogue parliament
everyone on the liblogs criticized the decision. In the end it worked out well for him. He bought time and his government survived.

If he wouldn't have asked for prorogation today we probably would be an election or Mr.Dion would be Prime Minister of a coalition government with the socialist NDP supported by the separatist BLOC.

No matter what the opposition parties were saying at that time no-one voted for that. I don't care what percentage they said voted for the opposition parties.

As to propping up the Conservatives,if it continues no doubt it will once again effect them the same way it did the last time.

My prediction this parliment will last at least one year.Here is my
reason!We now have the NDP and the Bloc both upset with the liberals for destroying their dreams.

It is now getting late so I will now turn in. Good Night to you all!

Anonymous said...

Rubber will hit the road a year or so from now when Harper is ridiculously unpopular as the recession bites down - and the NDP can then remind people that were it not for the Liberals not wanting to get rid of him when they had the chance Canada could have been saved from a year of horrific government. "You had a choice sir. You could have said NO to Stephen Harper".

Steve V said...

""You had a choice sir. You could have said NO to Stephen Harper".

And forced an election three months after we just had one, or move towards a coalition nobody wanted. Good luck with that one, as you can see, your own base isn't even buying the rationale.

Besides, the Liberals will bring them down within the next year.