Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Greens Ahead In Quebec!

One of the more bizarre regionals numbers I've seen, the new Strategic Counsel(h/t Mike) shows the Greens surging to first place in Quebec. I'm surprised SC would publish that result, something is clearly wrong with the Bloc and Green score (now you know what 19/20 times means):
Greens 26%
Libs 24%
Bloc 22%
Cons 17%
NDP 12%
To all my Green friends, enjoy the moment.

The national numbers are more good news for the Liberals:
Libs 33%
Cons 32%
NDP 17%
People will note, the Quebec regionals do show fairly consistent scores for the above parties, relative to the last poll, so that tends to make the national numbers believable. Liberals up 4%, Conservatives down 4%, NDP down 1% since January, numbers that are strikingly similar to today's Decima poll.

I still haven't seen the Decima Ontario numbers, but given the nationals and their Quebec numbers, it safe to assume they have the Liberals regaining the lead in Ontario. Strategic Counsel shows the Grits opening up a commanding lead in Ontario:
Libs 43%
Cons 28%
NDP 20%

Liberals up 6%, Conservatives down 13%, NDP up 4% since January. Margin of error is low, but even with some variation, you can't argue with the trend. I suspect the economy really souring, coupled with the stench of the coalition gone, Ignatieff performing well, voters in Ontario are finding it easier to move their support.

Liberals are also rebounding out "west" to 24% (up 6%), which is probably due to better support in British Columbia. I was reading a column from Vancouver today, which argued that the Liberals had opportunities in the province, and ditching the coalition was the first step. We'll see.

An 8% swing in national support is a big shift. Further evidence that's it's actually the Liberals and Ignatieff that have emerged from the budget drama in the best shape. Bottomline, both polls today translate to a Liberal minority. And, maybe a Green official opposition. I like the sounds of that actually :)

UPDATE

A couple comments from Donolo, which have been echoed elsewhere:
"It's not surprising, given the Liberals have a new leader who seems to have avoided some of the mishaps and traps that were laid for him and that his predecessor stepped in."

Donolo said that Ignatieff has benefited from dismantling the Liberal-NDP coalition, which was to be supported by the Bloc Quebecois and was deeply unpopular with many Canadians.

"He managed to position Liberal support for the budget without looking like they had been co-opted by the government," said Donolo.

Donolo noted that the Grit's political maneuver has created the impression that Ignatieff "is calling the shots, as opposed to Mr. Harper pushing him around."

20 comments:

Steve V said...

Strangely, nobody at Strategic Counsel seems to notice the PROBLEM:

Quebec voters, meanwhile, appear to be abandoning the Bloc since the last election while the Greens have seen a huge surge in the province (difference in brackets):

Bloc Quebecois: 22 per cent (-16)
Liberals: 24 per cent (0)
Conservatives: 17 per cent (-5)
NDP: 12 per cent (0)
Green Party: 26 per cent (22 per cent)

Mushroom said...

Okay, I am now calling for something to make this fictitious poll a reality.

Stephane Dion and Justin Trudeau to defect to the Greens along with Eugene Forsey Liberal and other Anon commenters.

The Greens in Quebec need a federalist option. From Papineau to Westmount to Outremont etc etc

Steve V said...

I don't see how you let that number out the door. Surely, somebody at SC would say, "umm, maybe we better try that again".

What I do think we're seeing, in a larger sense with these polls, now that the coalition question has passed, a barrier to the Liberals is removed.

Mike said...

My goodness if this poll ends up in the Globe and Mail tomorrow with those regionals displayed and that line you quoted above without any disclaimers I would say Strategic Counsel's (and the Globe and Mail's who commissioned the poll) credibility is badly damaged here.

You'd think someone would have thrown up a red flag before this went to press. I guess it was too much to expect a pollster to admit they might have made a mistake or done something wrong.

janfromthebruce said...

Yap, and considering that the NDP is also picking up, it's good that right-wing Iggy cut ties, as we were getting tainted.
the liberal party can change it's name to the conservative liberal party - honesty in advertising and part of the new transparency.

burlivespipe said...

Ah JanfromNarnia, what would we ever do without your comforting and reliable sunglasses-in-the-dark anti-liberal rant?

penlan said...

Probably a typo.

Steve V said...

"the NDP is also picking up"

LOL.

Anonymous said...

janfromthebruce - by your profile you are a "public" employee who gets paid by "taxpayers" - so get back to work. You spend a lot of time ranting about Liberals (LOL and she wanted a coalition?).

JimBobby said...

Whooee! Q-beck has been about the worst place for GPC support. We got us a new QC frontman and deputy leader in Claude Genest. He's bringin' more Greenies into the fold but I can't believe we're doing that great like SC sez.

Considering the possible hit to SC's cred, I suspect that they may have some way to back up those numbers. (Or, perhaps, to disavow them?) Strange and wonderful?

JB

YahMon said...

The Green Party being shown as 26% in Quebec and 13% nationally instantly tells me that this is a throwaway poll (i.e. the 20th poll out of 20). I'd ignore this one.

(A rule of thumb: if you see the Green Party in double digits in a poll, the poll is probably not reliable).

A View From The Left said...

maybe they only polled in anglophone montreal

JimBobby said...

(A rule of thumb: if you see the Green Party in double digits in a poll, the poll is probably not reliable).

In the lead-up to the October 14 election, nearly every poll had the Greens at 10% or better. Since the actual election result was 6.8%, you can argue that all the polls were unreliable and that when all polls give the same unreliable results, then all polls are unreliable.

I agree hese latest numbers are goofy and almost certainly a fluke/error/typo. Green support, however, is edging nicely into double-digits. The Greens are growing while the other parties are stagnating or losing support. Your rule of thumb may need to be changed to a rule of green thumb: nurture it and it will grow.

JB

Mark Taylor said...

Jim Bobby - Genest isn't new... he's been the deputy leader since May was elected in 2006. Any boosts in the polls in Quebec clearly aren't due to him. The drop in Quebec results (4.0% to 3.5%) between elections may be more of a reflection of his impact on the province.

JimBobby said...

Yer right, Mark. Genest ain't any newer than Lizzie May. He made a reasonably big splash (for a Green) with TV ads during the campaign. I tend to agree that this "boost" ain't really a boost but a fluke/error/anomaly/outlier. Kinda funny in a ha-ha sorta way, too.

The 4% to 3.5% drop? That was probbly on accounta all the Green voters in Dion's riding being denied a GPC candidate. ;-)

JB

Anonymous said...

But the NDP is at 20% in Ontario - two points above what they got in the last election. This must be like a stake through the heart of all Liberals.

Steve V said...

anon

Don't worry, everyone else has the NDP down in Ontario, which makes sense when you think about it. Also, people are clearly tiring of the Layton act.

Anonymous said...

The QC numbers are 100% fiction.
As Antonio said somewhere else, ignore this stupidity until a large sample size comes out.
IF Iggy can somehow draw the francophones away from the beloved Bloc almost a la Harper there is hope. Otherwise the Liberals should be pleased to what they've got.
Let's focus on BC and Ontario where there's some tangible gains to be made.

Anonymous said...

"Also, people are clearly tiring of the Layton act."

We know you are...you can only speak for yourself.

Steve V said...

anon

LOL, it ain't just me, dude's numbers are TANKING big time. Keep telling yourself whatever gets you through the day....