Sunday, January 30, 2011

The Death Star's Vulnerability?



David Akin reports on another corporate tax poll, with equally DEVASTATING numbers for the government position. The Abacus poll isn't a one off, this Leger finding is nothing but red flags for the government:
Turns out that’s been a tough sell: 43% of Canadians want “job creators” to pay more income tax, not less, according to the poll from Leger Marketing.

Leger surveyed 1,525 Canadians online between Jan. 24 and Jan. 27.

The pollster found that just one in 10 people nation-wide believe that companies should pay less income tax than they pay now. Nearly one in four believe corporate tax cuts are about right and one in four had no opinion.

Only 10% agree with lowering corporate income taxes? This is astounding, because even Conservative baseline support isn't on board with the government. Numbers like these we simply haven't seen on ANY question since the government took office. You have 43% that want higher taxes, another 40% say the status quo is desirable, there is no appetite for the government position, absolutely none.

Common sense is starting to find empirical support. The idea of lower taxes for massively profitable companies is a simple point of rejection, it doesn't require complicated arguments, everyone gets it. The Liberals may have found the Death Star's ultimate vulnerability- an issue which you can pivot off to present an entire platform, a complete divergence, a clear distinction. Finding like the above will only embolden the Liberals and make them that much more aggressive, knowing "families" are on side.

16 comments:

liberazzi said...

The Libs have come up with a good narrative contrasting F35s/Corp Tax Cuts vs spending on home care etc, but will that evaporate if this election window closes and with a new one not opening until next spring or fall? By then the corporate tax cuts will be entrenched & the purchase of the F35s will be well under way.

Steve V said...

We're on the side of families, they're on the side of fat cats.

BlackRedVixen said...

liberazzi, this election window ain't closin'. We are most definitely going to the polls this spring.

Kim Leaman said...

We are on the side of Canadians!

They are on the BACKS of Canadians!

Dame said...

we want and we will have an election ASAP.

even if the PM calling sick../joke/

Steve V said...

A small caveat here, Muclair on QP today was noticeably less aggressive on the budget, even noted the EI deal in 2009. Still hard to believe, but the NDP are clearly still leaving the door open. Muclair looked uncomfortable, like he'd had his wings clipped.

I'm curious how this poll affects the NDP. On the one hand maybe the gov't is more apt to try and strike a deal. However, the NDP has to see these numbers and wonder if they don't take a huge hit, losing their "big banks", corporate tax cut mantra. I mean, we will be here again next year, how the NDP will be stronger if they're proping up, I can't see it.

Marpman said...

This argument needs to be centred around jobs. The CPC will frame this as a job-creation move, around the assertion that if corporations pay less tax, they use that money to invest and create jobs.
This has proven to be a fallacy and I think the emperical argument should be centred around this. If the supposition that jobs are not linked to taxes is broken then there is no justification to the CPC position. If they continue to stand firm here, they will lose following.
There is still time for them to 'hear' public opinion and they will run away from this before an election is called...just watch them run.

Mark Dowling said...

Stephen Gordon*: Some corporate tax talking points I wish people would stop talking about

http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2011/01/talking.html

* this guy was one of the most fervent Tory-lashers in respect of the census changes.

Steve V said...

Marpman

I agree it will all be about jobs, fear mongering, that without this cuts the economy will fall apart. I think the Libs just need to remain calm, present their case, particularly that we are already competitive. I'm not a big fan of past reminders, but in this case, the Liberals were the one's brought in corp tax cuts to make us competitive, within a surplus framework.


Mark

I've read that. It reminds me of all the experts telling us the carbon tax was a good thing ;)

Gayle said...

If things look favourable for the LPC, both the CPC and the NDP will do everything they can to prevent an election. It serves both parties to help each other and squeeze the LPC out.

My guess is these polls are not helping the LPC because they are making Layton and Harper more motivated to avoid an election. I have already suggested the CPC may try to back out of this tax decrease, and these polls will help them do that.

I do hope I am wrong though. :)

Tof KW said...

Gayle, I very much doubt that Harper will back down on either the corp tax cut, or the F-35s. The only time the CPC backed down on anything over their entire 5 years of government was over the EAP, and it took the risk of losing government completely. I think they are happy to go into an election with their overflowing war chest, and continue labeling the Grits with; 'job killers', 'tax & spend' and 'gutting our military' hoping these will somehow gain traction again. Harper will probably go for broke here unless the polls really turn dramatically against him over the next few weeks. He's all about campaigning anyhow, not the governing part.

The Bloc would like an election as the CPC is polling poorly in Quebec. Without HST money or a new Quebec stadium, the BQ looks to clean out the CPC from the Quebec city area. Also the Lib numbers are still weak, so now is as good a time as any for an election in their eyes.

That leaves the NDP. It is almost unthinkable that they would support a budget that contains corp tax cuts, but then there's Layton and now Mulcair being very ambiguous lately on this issue.

Anything can happen over the next 8 or so weeks, but the only possibility I see of the Harper government surviving the next budget bill is if the NDP support it. But that seems unimaginable as that just delays the election until 2012, and the NDP's loss of seats then would be dramatic. Depends if Layton will risk badly weakening his party just to remain leader for another year. With his ego, that is a possibility.

DL said...

Being slightly ambiguous is a good strategy for the NDP - it means being the centre of attention from now until the budget is brought down in mid to late March. If Layton announced that the NDP would automatically vote down the budget unless it got rid of the next phase of corporate tax cuts - it would just make an election 100% certain and it would effectively mean that the election campaign had already begun.

I don't see any downside in stringing the media along and letting them speculate whether a deal might be reached - even though everyone on the inside knows that an election is 100% certain to happen. In fact, I'm amazed that the media is actually gullible enough to believe that the NDP hasn't already made up its mind to vote down the budget no matter what But i won't look a gift horse in the mouth. There is no down side to being seen by the public as being the party that tried to "make parliament work" right to the bitter end. Polling apparently shows that the NDP's strongest asset is being seen as the party most willing to cooperate with others - the more that can be reinforced, the better.

Steve V said...

Denial or spin, neither is flattering.

rockfish said...

Hah, DL means 'denial lots'... One budget, his guy with a mustache announces pre-budget 'I'm agin it!'... Now, the nuance is in waiting to see the budget. Of course, that didn't stop them from lambasting others for saying the same thing... Harper continues to spin lying ads against Ignatieff, Layton nervously hopes that the bone Harper tosses him has a little meat to sell to his team, and the country is mired in all-star weekend. Chill out. The CONs know that piling up much more money is just a waste -- they need to get into an election sooner than later... Will they try to resell that 'coalition boogeyman' scenario, or has that proven to be a dead fish? All I know is Layton probably knows not to trust Harper but also understands his job is now or never to make that 'We're #3!' run...

Shiner said...

Um, what actually happened with the stadium deal? Coyne tweeted a Sun Media report about an announcement by the Incredible Ghost Woman Josee Vernier last Thursday that was supposed to happen but... nothing?

Omar said...

There was a story this morning on CBC Radio Halifax about Halifax's lobbying efforts for a new 27,000 seat all-purpose stadium. Mayor Peter Kelly noted there is $1.3billion in federal monies set aside for sports facilities across the country and that he was hoping Halifax would qualify for some. Has anybody else heard about this pool of stadium funding? It was the first I'd heard of it.