Who would have thought two months ago that one could actually say "have the Liberals peaked too early?" and not be laughed at. However, as stated previously, Ontario is a very volatile place, those that declared McGuinty done really don't appreciate the fluidity in this province, nor the impact of true focus. Now that the campaign has finally began, all bets are off, any outcome possible and from the Liberal perspective that's a terrific relativity.
I think the Liberals ads have been fantastic to date, the type I LONGED for in the federal campaign. McGuinty taking on his popularity directly, then pivoting to a laundry list of accomplishments, is a brilliant ad. As well, the theme of working together, as opposed to Hudak's divisive posturing, I sense that is resonating with a public starved for positive vision. As well, Hudak has suffered through many negative headlines, his party is showing cracks, he looks opportunistic rather than principled and above all, he's a DUD. McGuinty may not be the most popular leader in the country- although I sense a limited rethink occuring- but voters aren't going to hand the keys to anyone, should they look amateurish or not up to snuff.
This campaign is going to be fascinating, the Liberals now have wind in their sails and Hudak will have to react to questions about lost support, the pressure is on. A lot will depend on how the NDP perform, they could be anything from afterthought, to spoiler, to true contender. The key moment, obviously the debate, but in this campaign the stakes seem even higher.
So far, so good for the Ontario Liberals...
3 comments:
If this HD poll is even remotely accurate, what are we to make of having the Ontario Liberals at a solid 40% and 11 points ahead of the PCs while at the same time the Ontario NDP is close to an all-time high of 24%? It tells me that for all the squawking about vote splitting and how it is impossible to defeat the Tories in a multi-party environment - the opposite is actually the case. Contrary to popular belief there is NOT a simple "zero-sum game" between Liberal and NDP support - they can both gain simultaneously and they can both lose simultaneously. Right now in Ontario it seems like the NDP may be doing the Liberals a favour by siphoning off a big chunk of votes from people who are dissatisfied with McGuinty but don't want the kind of change that Hudak represents.
If the Tories lose the Ontario election despite a competitive three-party race it will prove that Tories (federally as well) can be defeated in a three cornered contest and that "vote splitting" is a bit of a myth.
I think it's common sense, not a "myth".
I think the Liberals ads have been fantastic to date, the type I LONGED for in the federal campaign. McGuinty taking on his popularity directly, then pivoting to a laundry list of accomplishments, is a brilliant ad.
They are brilliant. McGuinty confronts his own unpopularity, and the negative ads against him, in a freshing way.
I can imagine the equivalent they could have ran during the federal campaign. Ignatieff stepping forward to talk about the Liberal platform and then ending it with: "I'm Michael Ignatieff, and I did come back for you."
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