Saturday, March 24, 2012

NDP First Ballot Results

Pretty surprising results on the first ballot:

Turnout - 50%. Mulcair 30, Topp 21.3, Cullen 16.3, Nash 12.8, Dewar 7.4, Singh 5.8, Ashton 5.7. Singh out. Dewar out. Ashton out.

Mulcair comes in on the low end of expectations. As I mentioned yesterday 35% was the arbitrary number many had floated on the convention floor. However, with Singh at a decent 6%, one wonders what kind of a boost this will give Mulcair in the next round. Mulcair has a decent lead, but there is no air of inevitability in this building, people are prepping for a potentially long day. I would describe this result as somewhat disappointing for Mulcair, not fatal, but much in doubt.

For me, the two big surprises, Topp comes in a strong second and Dewar a very disappointing fifth, and barely that. Looks of chatter about Topp fading, but he's delivered a decent result, with some speculation of more British Columbia votes coming in the next round, an added dynamic moving forward. Topp is well placed moving forward.

Cullen is the interesting one, in the hunt, but well back. This is where second choice could be important, particularly with a relatively low "live" vote on the first ballot. Many votes are locked in, given Cullen had quite a bit of momentum the last couple of weeks, one wonders where the second choice shakes out. Cullen very much in the game.

Nash seems to be a point of disagreement, some saying she can still move up, others, like myself, see her to far back to truly challenge. Fourth is a tough spot, and with Topp very, very viable, one wonders where the support comes from. What I will look for, where does Nash go, does she move to Topp after the second ballot, that is the type of move required to take out Mulcair.

It's going to be a long day, and I'm loving every second of it...


sharonapple88 said...

The low turnout might be interesting. Back in 2003 the vote was 58 202 -- just 6906 more votes for 2012. Assuming that most of these people from 2003 stayed to 2012, there's not a lot of new blood in this party, even with the NDP as the official opposition.

Anyway, I thought turnout would be higher.

Steve V said...

Agreed. There is a sense that the participation number is disappointing.