Wednesday, April 04, 2012

NDP "Honeymoon"

The latest Harris Decima poll is being reported as a "surge" in publications, which may be a bit of an overstate, at least in a truly national sense. I don't like comparing pollsters, but I think it quite instructive to compare poll to poll within a particular outfit. In this way you best ascertain true trends, rather than chasing various methodologies and continually being pulled in conflicting directions. Harris Decima had a poll out two weeks ago, so using that offering as the baseline we had:
Nationally, the Conservatives lead by 3 points. Over the last two weeks the Conservatives stand at 31%, the NDP 28%, the Liberals 24%, the BQ 8%, and the Greens 7%.

• The BQ are in front in the province of Quebec. Here, they stand at 34%, to 26% for the NDP, 21% for the Liberals, 11% for the Conservatives, and 6% for the Greens.

• A tight three way race exists in the province of Ontario. Here, the Conservatives stand at 33%, the Liberals 30%, the NDP 29%, and the Greens 7%.

• The NDP and Conservatives are neck and neck in BC. Here, the NDP stands at 35%, the Conservatives 33%, the Liberals 21%, and the Greens 9%


Today's release:
Nationally, the Conservatives hold a two point lead. The Conservatives stand at 34%, to 32% for the NDP, 19% for the Liberals, 8% for the Greens, and 6% for the BQ.

• The NDP has surged back in front in Quebec. Here, they stand at 39%, to 24% for the BQ, 14% for the Liberals, 14% for the Conservatives, and 8% for the Greens.

• The Conservatives are well in front in Ontario. The Conservatives stand at 41%, to 26% for the NDP, 24% for the Liberals, and 8% for the Greens.

• The NDP holds a strong lead in BC. Here, they stand at 44%, to 30% for the Conservatives, 13% for the Liberals, and 11% for the Greens.

Interesting, all the talk is of the NDP surge and yet the Conservatives are up 3% poll to poll, barely eclipsed by the NDP's 4% gain. In other words, a 3% national lead for the Conservatives is now a 2% edge, statistically irrelevant. However, that doesn't distract from NDP gains, particularly regional, nor does it mask a significant drop for the Liberals. I guess the relevancy, we see support for the opposition moving around-as used to see in reverse with the Liberals and NDP- but electorally the shift is less pronounced from the Conservative perspective.

We do see a pronounced uptick for the NDP in Quebec, which isn't surprising, Mulcair has rekindled fortunes. The NDP do surge past the Bloc, up a full 13% poll to poll, back in Layton terrority. Here as well, we see the cost to the Liberals.

Interesting, not only is there no NDP bounce in vote rich Ontario, their number is actually down poll to poll. Here, the Conservatives are well up and this is noteworthy, because one does expect a NDP uptick with their new shiny leader. Hard to find the Mulcair "honeymoon" in Ontario.

We see a healthy rise for the NDP in British Columbia, but there is a high MOE and we've seen previous strength prior to Mulcair. Still, we can concede a traditional bounce for the NDP here.

All in all, Mulcair is riding a nice wave in Quebec which presents as a decent national rise for the NDP. Elsewhere, I would describe the bounce as non-existent to nothing remarkable (as an aside HD had the NDP in first in Atlantic Canada prior to Mulcair winning, no noteworthy move post), which is something to watch moving forward. I recall the Liberals leading after Dion, tied/leading after Ignatieff, so I'm putting Mulcair in that context. Mulcair is firming up Quebec for the NDP- a fear I've had for sometime from the Liberal perspective- time will tell if it holds, but he is not an unknown quantity which bodes well.

3 comments:

CK said...

I look at this poll quite differently. If this trend continues in the various polls for the near future, Mulcair and the NDP are at risk of peaking too soon, particularly in La Belle Province. He should ask Francois Legault and CAQ about this--a subject Legault knows all too well, these days.

When Legault and his group were fictitious, he lead the polls and again when CAQ became an official party. However, he's been going down in the polls, sometimes even below Charest & his Liberals (depending on the poll). Legault can't seem to get back up.

All that to say that with a volatile electorate such as Quebec, Mulcair's fate is not etched in stone here. Let's remember, contrary to what Mulcair and his fans think, he did not have anything to do with his party winning all those seats in Quebec. Let's remember that he couldn't get the vote up here in 2008. No, it was Jackmania. All voted for "Le Bon Jack". Up until very recently, I doubt that anyone outside of the Greater Montreal area even knew who Mulcair was. He wasn't exactly a household name in places like Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean or Gaspesie.

Daniel Paille, on the other hand, has been quiet as of late. I think can attribute somewhat to the lastest polls here. What will happen when Daniel Paille starts strutting his stuff? I imagine we won't see much of it untl around Quebec's next provincial election. After which, he may well seak a seat in the HOC.

The orange wave only happened in La Belle Province. As we can see, the party has not won over Ontario, which was what basically got Harper his majority. They also don't have much in the prairies or Alberta.

Also, don't forget that Ontario, BC and Alberta are getting new seats. I believe C-12 passed? Since those new seats reduces Quebec in the HoC and the fact that the only province the orange wave occurred was in Quebec, which Mulcair cannot count on keeping, no one should take for granted Mulcair will stay on top.

Overall, these polls still have Harper ahead and this is most troubling. I'm sure if he mugged his own grandmother, he would go even higher in the polls. Whether one is of the NDP stripe or the Liberal one, they both lose.

CK said...

I look at this poll quite differently. If this trend continues in the various polls for the near future, Mulcair and the NDP are at risk of peaking too soon, particularly in La Belle Province. He should ask Francois Legault and CAQ about this--a subject Legault knows all too well, these days.

When Legault and his group were fictitious, he lead the polls and again when CAQ became an official party. However, he's been going down in the polls, sometimes even below Charest & his Liberals (depending on the poll). Legault can't seem to get back up.

All that to say that with a volatile electorate such as Quebec, Mulcair's fate is not etched in stone here. Let's remember, contrary to what Mulcair and his fans think, he did not have anything to do with his party winning all those seats in Quebec. Let's remember that he couldn't get the vote up here in 2008. No, it was Jackmania. All voted for "Le Bon Jack". Up until very recently, I doubt that anyone outside of the Greater Montreal area even knew who Mulcair was. He wasn't exactly a household name in places like Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean or Gaspesie.

Daniel Paille, on the other hand, has been quiet as of late. I think can attribute somewhat to the lastest polls here. What will happen when Daniel Paille starts strutting his stuff? I imagine we won't see much of it untl around Quebec's next provincial election. After which, he may well seak a seat in the HOC.

The orange wave only happened in La Belle Province. As we can see, the party has not won over Ontario, which was what basically got Harper his majority. They also don't have much in the prairies or Alberta.

Also, don't forget that Ontario, BC and Alberta are getting new seats. I believe C-12 passed? Since those new seats reduces Quebec in the HoC and the fact that the only province the orange wave occurred was in Quebec, which Mulcair cannot count on keeping, no one should take for granted Mulcair will stay on top.

Overall, these polls still have Harper ahead and this is most troubling. I'm sure if he mugged his own grandmother, he would go even higher in the polls. Whether one is of the NDP stripe or the Liberal one, they both lose.

sharonapple88 said...

Interesting points as always, CK and SteveV.

I just want to add that for Mulcair to make this honeymoon last, he has to avoid being the sort of person others suspect him of being. Anyone see the Rick Mercer parody this Tuesday? Everything's fine just as long as you don't cross him. Do not cross Mulcair. Unfortunately, the last few days, we've seen Rae bring out the worst in Mulcair. And I can't help but think that Layton or Turmel wouldn't have handled the situation in the same way.

(Overall, not a fan of seeing the Liberals and the NDP taking swipes at each other.)

And it's true, that the Conservatives soaring in the polls makes both the NDP and Liberals losers. Possibly the parties need to give people something to vote for. It's not just enough to oppose.