Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Israel Sacks General

The Israeli's are pretty astute when it comes to political propaganda. There is no other way to spin this announcement as anything other than a frank admission of failure:
Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters waged deadly clashes in several border towns Tuesday and exchanged air and rocket attacks as the Israeli army sent a new commander to oversee its offensive, a move widely believed to reflect dissatisfaction with the way the war is proceeding.

The command change came as Israel's top security officials were set to meet Wednesday to consider an expansion of the ground offensive in Lebanon, a move called for by several commanders.

Maj. Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky, deputy chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, was named "to coordinate the Israeli army's operations in Lebanon," according to a statement. It said top army officials retained "complete confidence" in Maj. Gen. Udi Adam, head of Israel's Northern Command, who has led the assault on Hezbollah since it began July 12.

But some Israeli television reports described the arrival of Kaplinsky, who had previously commanded Israeli forces in the West Bank and Lebanon, as "an impeachment" and said it was the first time since 1973 that the top command had been reshuffled during a war.

Another sign that mighty Israel has been humbled:
On Tuesday, Israeli authorities stepped up the evacuation of Kiryat Shemona, the country's northernmost city, which has been hit by more than 500 Hezbollah rockets in the past month.


The city's mayor said the government's plan to relocate 15,000 people from the north overnight was a response to unprecedented Hezbollah rocket attacks.


"This is the first time in (Israel's) history that a million people are living under fire," Mayor Chaim Barbivai said, referring to the population of northern Israel. "The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) is so much stronger than Hezbollah, we thought it would be over in a flash."

Who would have predicted that Israel would still be bogged down in border towns:
The incident is just one among dozens of examples of an enemy that has proven more resilient and better-equipped than Israeli military forces anticipated. After nearly four weeks of air attacks and ground combat, Israeli military officials say that they have killed only a small fraction of Hezbollah's fighters and that the group still has hundreds of launchers and thousands of rockets at its disposal.

"What we face is an infantry division with state-of-the-art weaponry -- night-vision gear, advanced rifles, well-equipped -- deployed along our border," said Brig. Gen. Yossi Kuperwasser, who until last month was director of analysis for Israeli military intelligence. "They have some of the most advanced antitank missiles in the world."

Not quite parity, but increasingly a new reality, wherein Israel doesn't have the luxury to act with impunity. Complete backfire, the psychological advantage Israel "enjoyed" over its Arab rivals is now largely evaporating. Arab youth will now look to the heroic struggle of the David, and it will represent a source of great pride, as opposed to the multiple humiliations of the past. What was gained?

2 comments:

CuriosityKilledTheCat said...

The Israeli and Lebanese governments are talking past each other.

Israel has been clear: it wants an army of peacekeepers stationed in southern Lebanon and on the borders, which has the will and the muscle to disarm Hezbollah, interdict new armaments flowing from Syria and Iran, and stop the missiles raining down on Israel. The kidnapped soldiers must be released. In its view, UNIFIL does not fit the two requirements: its mandate lacks the will and its armaments are inadequate for the purpose. Until these requirements are met, Israel will widen its thrust into Lebanon, seeking to kill as many Hezbollah as it can while doing so.

The Lebanese government desperately does not want to be forced to disarm Hezbollah, nor can its army do so. So it wants peace so that the Israeli army will withdraw, Hezbollah will join the army (or not), the country can rebuild, Hezbollah can claim victory, and fighting will start again, soon, no doubt with more missiles raining down on Israel.

Bush wants to make sure the vacuum left by a disengaging Israeli army is not filled by a resurgent Hezbollah. For a while, he managed to swing France over to his view, but now France is wavering and moving towards the Lebanese government's views.

When and how will it end? When the NATO countries decide to put a credible force on the ground, with the mandate to demilitarize southern Lebanon. Until then, the fighting will go on, because Hezbollah has no option, having started the war, to continue fighting.

Jeff said...

Should something like what you suggest happen curiosity, I would wagar, based on expereince, and the experiences of my friends that such a "peacekeeping" force in Lebanon will not be forced to fire on Hezbollah terrorists first (they traditionally do not engage UNIFL forces at all), they will be forced to fire on IDF forces (who have targetted UNIFIL and UNDOF forces on several occasions "by accident".

You will not find many members of the CF who have been in Golan or Lebanon on the peacekeeping missions there who think of Israel fondly. The generals and politicians can claim impartiality, however, those who have been there will be anything but, and for good reason.

You are right though. I have said it in another thread. A massive multinational force must be sent to the region and force peace. Said force must be as well armed, if not better armed then the force in Iraq... I am talking tanks, fast air, artillery, and mech infantry. This will not happen however, as one of the pernament members of the UN Security Council will vetoe any such motion. A lesser ill equiped force will be sent, with ROEs that will make it impossible to shoot unless you yourself have been shot (the major reason why the UN failed in BiH and NATO had to take over).