Delegates Based On Population

There has been considerable discussion over the disparity between actual population demographic and delegate selection percentages. The general feeling is the western provinces are under-represented in the calculation, while certain regions in the east are over-representated. I decided to take the 2001 Census numbers for each province and cross-reference the percentages with riding distribution. What I found is that Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec deserve more of a percentage of delegates, while Manitoba, Saskatchewan, P.E.I deserve less. If you take the 469 "Meetings" on the Liberal site and distribute that number based on population, then take the percentages of the top-four candidates in each province (I realize some ridings haven't reported, that is why percentages were used assuming they hold) and calculate delegates you come up with the following:

Ignatieff- 28.9%
Rae- 19.8%
Kennedy- 17.9%
Dion- 16.5%

Conclusion, not a great deal of difference. Rae and Dion come up with the exact same percentage they have currently. Kennedy moves up a full 1.1%, at the expense of Ignatieff, who drops 1%. It would appear that in this case, regional disparity doesn't slant the overall results, although where the delegates reside is still skewed.

Politically, if these were the results it would change a couple perceptions, slightly. Kennedy would be the clear 3rd choice, closer to Rae, with a more noticeable gap to Dion. Ignatieff would be enough under 30% that the media probably wouldn't round-off and this could have some sway with perceptions.

The Liberal Party should go to great pains to make sure that all regions are represented fairly. The last thing the Party needs is a system that feeds western alienation. Delegates should be awarded based on population distribution, both provincially and within each province.