"Super Weekend" Distortions

Now that the final results for delegate selection are in, it has become apparent that partial results create distortions that have lasting impact on the race. I must admit, I really enjoyed watching the results pour in over super weekend. However, if the powers that be were aware that some selections would be delayed due to differing meetings and mail in ballots, then results should have been sealed until completion. Of course, the logistical solution was simply to guarantee that all delegates were actually selected on super weekend, but for some reason no one bothered to make this mandatory. Therefore, the incomplete tallies were used by the mainstream media to shape this race.

The big loser in this botched process is clearly Kennedy. All the discussion after super weekend put Dion and Kennedy in a tie for 3rd place. Now that we have full results, it turns out that there is no virtual tie, Kennedy has a full 57 delegates more than Dion. Pretend that the results were published in their completed form at the end of superweekend. The media framing would have been somewhat altered, in that Kennedy and Dion wouldn't have been mentioned in the same breath, but from slightly different realities. You could argue that this point is trivial, but a clear Kennedy in third does have ramifications in subsequent reporting and overall mindset on viability.

Many pundits, operating under the "tied" scenario have arbitarily given Dion the advantage, mostly because of the Quebec factor. Some have even gone so far as to dismiss Kennedy as a legitimate contender, despite the impressive delegate total. If people were forced to make conclusions based on the total results, then Dion is clearly in fourth and I think this fact is powerful symbolism in shaping views moving forward. Dion now has a gap that must be overcome with ex-officos, if he is too overtake Kennedy on the first ballot. Given the conventional wisdom on ex-offico breakdowns, this seems unlikely. Would Dion look as credible now if we came out of superweekend with the real totals, and not skewed total that were inaccurate?

There is enough of a gap between Kennedy and Dion that he looks to clearly be in the all important third position. I wonder if all the "kingmaker" talk would have been muted, had we known the real results. Would Kennedy enjoy more of a buzz, at the expense of Dion? It isn't so much that the percentages are vastly different now, but I never underestimate the power of psychology in terms of framing, nor can we dismiss momentum. How did the results effect the bottom-tier candidate thinking in who to ultimately support? I think the system failed to provide accurate results, allowing false conclusions that have now gelled and this has consequences. No matter who you support in this race, no one can now deny that Kennedy is the solid third choice. Shouldn't we have had this knowledge straight away and framed the race from the real starting point? Thumbs down to a amateur process.