I would be curious to see raw vote totals from all the provinces and see what the percentages show. One Liberal, one vote might give a better indication of real support, because afterall we should only concern ourselves with the people that bothered to show up. I was quite surprised to see a lineup at my riding, that extended outside- obviously people had some enthusiasm for the process and maybe a more fair system should factor that in. One suggestion: delegates are only awarded if a riding meets a certain vote threshold, which would provide further incentive for people to show up.
The Quebec turnout forces me to conclude that no candidate can really claim substantial support in the province. The numbers speak to a process that has failed to excite anyone but diehard Liberals, so I would be careful in making any assumptions based on a general failure. I also think Kennedy's argument that Quebec's apparatus is a tight structure, that makes it hard for a newcomer to crack, has some weight when you consider the turnout. I realize it doesn't matter, the delegates have been selected, but maybe we shouldn't overstate the Quebec numbers as a death knell, or an endorsement, considering the paltry representation. It would appear that all the candidates have work to do in Quebec and the delegates merely mask the problem.
12 comments:
I am glad that "apparently" low turnout has caused you to conclude that no candidate can claim support in Quebec. Sorry, of those who voted, Ignatieff and Dion carried the day. It's their support to claim.
Moreover, the fact that turnout was so low is just a greater indictment of Kennedy. Such low participation means that about 100 people actually voted for him. And it also means that if he had a semblence of any organizational support there, he should have done better. This is a further signal of his poor prospects in the province - short and probably also long term.
the fact that turnout was so low is just a greater indictment of Kennedy. Such low participation means that about 100 people actually voted for him."
That argument works both ways. Dion can't claim that Quebecers support hime, when only a couple thousand bothered to vote- hardly a good indicator. People can "claim" the vote, but I don't think it terribly relevant in the grand scheme of where the party stands in the province, nor who can do well in the general.
I have only heard of low turnout in Quebec from supporters of Gerard trying to explain away his performance there and it's importance.
Do we have an ACTUAL numbers on turnout for Quebec? And for other provinces, so we can compare the turnout? Otherwise, this is an argument taking place devoid of any facts.
But for argument's sake lets say turnout was low. Is that the fault of the people that didn't turn out, or the campaigns that failed to inspire them to turn out?
Jeff
"But in one Montreal-area riding, for example, Ignatieff elected three delegates with 21 votes. In another remote riding, a party official said, Rae won 11 delegates with about 75 votes.
"It's a little disappointing, I don't know how representative some of these results are," a Dion loyalist observed.
Amid complaints that complicated ballot forms resulted in dozens of invalidated votes, some Quebec Liberals said it was a challenge getting the vote out for a leadership that hasn't exactly captivated the province"
Toronto Star, and it was a Dion supporter noting the "disappointment".
Peter L,
The lack of organization IS THE POINT re:Kennedy. He didn't have it in Quebec. If he did, he would have done better now and whenever.
The real question is: Why didn't the other top 3 candidates inspire more Quebecers to vote since they DID have extensive organization in Quebec?
Steve
In a democracy people have a right to CHOOSE to vote.
Those Liberals who exercised that right last weekend voted for Igantieff, Rae and Dion. They did not vote for Kennedy.
If Gerard was serious about winning delegates in Quebec he should have built the required infrastructure to get his vote out.
Don't blame the overall number of voters for an outcome you disagree with.
Turnout wasn't particularly good in BC, either. Public Eye Online has some numbers up.
In Vancouver Centre, Dryden got one delegate with 16 votes.
In Vancouver East, Ignatieff got one with only 7 votes.
At Simon Fraser, Kennedy got a delegate with just 2 votes, and at UBC Okanagan, Dion got 1 delegate with one vote and Kennedy went 3 for 3. Presumably, the voters are the delegates.
Does this mean I can now claim that Rae, Kennedy and Dion, who all beat my preferred candidate, cannot claim substantial support in BC? And if anyone criticizes Ignatieff's performance in BC, can I respond that Iggy is being unfairly criticized for not connecting with BCers when we extrapolate from such a small sample size?
The real takeaway point from the low turnout is that while hardcore Liberals are excited about this race, the general public isn't. That should be a dash of cold water on all those people dreaming of a Liberal majority if Harper calls an election next spring.
Steve, people were very confused about the ballot in BC too, and in my riding (still waiting on the mail-in) I'd put the over/under on turnout at 30. I'm imagine many BC ridings are similar. Dido, no doubt, Alberta. And yet, Gerard did VERY well in both provinces. I don't hear anyone doubting the legitimacy of his numbers there.
Here's a few from BC. In Esquimalt got one delegate with six votes, in Langley he got four delegates with 18 votes, in North Van one delegate with 5 votes, in Victoria one with 18. And those are all urban ridings, wait for the rural numbers.
(Source: www.publiceyeonline.com)
The reason for the difference? He organized the West, he didn't organize Quebec.
Quebec was - and continues to be - a disaster. The problem is not the candidates, but the LPCQ. Proper notification was not done by LPCQ. I am going to blog about this at my place. The poor turnout was largely because members were not aware it was going on/ thought only delegates could vote. Thanks, LPCQ, for a clear and transparent process.
One delegate with 16 votes is actually pretty good turnout.
Partisan supporters of other candidates are missing the point.
Everyone knows that Kennedy didn't have an organization in Quebec. He did try to organize in Quebec but nobody knew who he was and the Liberal organizers were behind Rae, Iggy and Dion.
It is perfectly valid and interesting to put forth a discussion on why Quebecers were not that engaged with the 3 choices presented to them. It doesn't make the Liberal Party shine, that is for sure.
Now that Kennedy is clearly in the top 4, hopefully he will get more media attention in Quebec and more support. His power in Ontario and the West cannot be denied and he cannot be written off with a 16% voter turnout in Quebec.
Rae got 2 delegates with 22 votes and Volpe got one with 8 votes in my riding. Only 30% came to vote. A shame I tell ya.
Fair enough. Maybe my suggestion of a minimum threshold for delegates would help turnout. If you want delegates from your riding then represent yourself, otherwise the people engaged should be rewarded. The amount of people that turned out to my riding was staggering- I has to wait almost 40 minutes to vote. I would love to see an overall raw number of votes, I think that is important.
Post a Comment