Monday, September 17, 2007

By-Election Open Thread


I thought I would put up a post that I can update as the by-election results come in. Feel free to add your two cents.

Bizarre quote of the day, has to go to Conservative Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon. On Outremont:
"This riding here has been held by Liberals since God wore short pants,"
Thanks for the awkward visual Lawrence- on with the votes.

169 comments:

A BCer in Toronto said...

God was wearing short pants in 1980? I think cameras were invented by then, did anyone get a picture?

A BCer in Toronto said...

Sorry, 1988. My bad. So, someone must have a pic of the second coming, no? Or maybe video?

Steve V said...

So far all I can find is a pic of Day in black spandex Jeff. Close?

Dan McKenzie said...

So.... how bout that Sally Fields...

Steve V said...

0% of the polls in, not a good sign.

Steve V said...

Lapierre just said turnout around 40% in Outremont.

A BCer in Toronto said...

If I needed reminding why I don't like Lapierre, that did it...

9:06 and still 0 votes for the Liberals. We're finished!

Dan McKenzie said...

Finally.

Steve V said...

Jeff

On the plus side, still tied for first in Roberval–Lac-Saint-Jean.

Steve V said...

One poll reporting:

UPDATE

1 poll reporting in Outremont:

Independent Romain Angeles 0 0.0
Independent Mahmood Raza Baig 0 0.0
Liberal Jocelyn Coulon 13 52.0
Conservative Gilles Duguay 0 0.0
Bloc Québécois Jean-Paul Gilson 1 4.0
neorhino.ca François Yo Gourd 0 0.0
Independent Jocelyne Leduc 0 0.0
Independent Régent Millette 0 0.0
NDP-New Democratic Party Thomas Mulcair 8 32.0
Green Party François Pilon 3 12.0
Independent John C. Turmel 0 0.0

A BCer in Toronto said...

9:11 and Coulon is over 50 per cent. Take that media conspiracy!! Oh, wait, that's like 20 polls. Crap.

Steve V said...

70/194 in Roberval, big Tory lead:

Green Party Jean-Luc Boily 123 1.5
Liberal Louise Boulanger 748 9.1
NDP-New Democratic Party Éric Dubois 190 2.3
Bloc Québécois Céline Houde 2,584 31.3
Conservative Denis Lebel 4,615 55.9
Total number of valid votes: 8,260

Dan McKenzie said...

Well if it's any consolation at the end of the night we destroyed in the race for third in Roberval. lol

A BCer in Toronto said...

20 votes that is, my bad.Still, he rocked that poll.

Steve V said...

4 polls in Outremont

Muclair 43%, Coulon 34%

Steve V said...

That looks like a landslide for the Conservative in Roberval.

A BCer in Toronto said...

According to wikipedia, the leader of the neorhino.ca party is Stephane Dion. Clearly, if the Liberals loss, it's because he split the pro-Dion vote.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neorhino.ca

Steve V said...

Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot —7/224 polls: Bloc 282 votes, Conservative 217 votes, Liberal 55 votes, NDP 46 votes, Green 32 votes

Steve V said...

Out 5 polls

Muc 49%
Coulon 29%

A BCer in Toronto said...

80 polls in Roberval but only 4 in Outremont, weird.

Boy, I really dislike Mike Duffy.

A View From The Left said...

The Conservatives are really running away with the lead in Roberval. I expected it to be really close, with the Bloc maybe being able to squeak a win.

Steve V said...

Miranda, that is quite a surprise and the Cons look competitive in Saint-Hy.

Torian said...

are you guys getting these updates online or on tv? my husband (obviosly not politically inclined!) has taken over the tv to watch dr who....sob

Steve V said...

I have Duffy on my blackberry.

Steve V said...

Roberval

Green Party Jean-Luc Boily 208 1.7
Liberal Louise Boulanger 1,204 9.6
NDP-New Democratic Party Éric Dubois 284 2.3
Bloc Québécois Céline Houde 3,604 28.8
Conservative Denis Lebel 7,199 57.6

100/194

northwestern_lad said...

After 8 Polls

NDP 51 %
Liberal 27%
Bloc 10 %

WOOHOOOO!!!!!!!!!

A View From The Left said...

I'm getting them online from the elections canada website...while being in lecture :P

A BCer in Toronto said...

Torian, go to elections.ca.

Steve V said...

Liberal Jocelyn Coulon 182 26.7
Conservative Gilles Duguay 43 6.3
Bloc Québécois Jean-Paul Gilson 70 10.3
neorhino.ca François Yo Gourd 7 1.0
NDP-New Democratic Party Thomas Mulcair 349 51.2
Green Party François Pilon 20 2.9

Total number of valid votes: 682

Polls reporting: 8/168

Steve V said...

northwest

A good trend for you guys!

northwestern_lad said...

Miranda... that either means you're dedicated, or your lecture is just not that important... hehe

A View From The Left said...

nw lad: lecture is boring...and i'm a politics nerd :P

northwestern_lad said...

Steve... yeah.... but I don't want to get too far ahead of myself here... there are still 160 polls to go

Steve V said...

That would be wise :)

northwestern_lad said...

LOL!!! i'm a political nerd too, but I never would have thought to do that in a lecture... I just would have skipped class and watched CPAC at home

Steve V said...

Roberval is a big story for the Conservatives, really big. 2/1 Con/Bloc

Torian said...

thank you!!!!

Steve V said...

Liberal Jocelyn Coulon 268 29.5
Conservative Gilles Duguay 113 12.5
Bloc Québécois Jean-Paul Gilson 78 8.6
neorhino.ca François Yo Gourd 7 0.8

NDP-New Democratic Party Thomas Mulcair 407 44.9
Green Party François Pilon 21 2.3
Independent John C. Turmel 2 0.2
Total number of valid votes: 907

Polls reporting: 10/168

Steve V said...

neorhino candidate concedes.

A View From The Left said...

i was at school anyway, lectures from 5 -10. and i love wifi :P

steve: i agree, roberval is a huge victory for the Cons. and a big blow for Duceppe as i think he's up for a leadership review next month.

Dan McKenzie said...

I think the Bloc would be nuts to get rid of Duceppe.

A View From The Left said...

why is the counting so much faster in roberval then the other 2 ridings?

A View From The Left said...

Dan - I agree, but it's doubtful that he's happy with the results, or that they're particularly helpful to him

A BCer in Toronto said...

Is it past Newman's bedtime or something? Why must I be subjected to Duffy?

Steve V said...

Independent Romain Angeles 0 0.0
Independent Mahmood Raza Baig 3 0.3
Liberal Jocelyn Coulon 301 26.3
Conservative Gilles Duguay 126 11.0
Bloc Québécois Jean-Paul Gilson 94

NDP-New Democratic Party Thomas Mulcair 568 49.7
Green Party François Pilon 32 2.8
Independent John C. Turmel 2 0.2
Total number of valid votes: 1,143

Polls reporting: 12/168

Steve V said...

Preliminary results: Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot —20/224 polls: Bloc 1007 votes, Conservative 726 votes, Liberal 187 votes, NDP 146 votes, Green 86 votes

Respectable for the Conservatives.

Steve V said...

Duffy with the fake Liberals angle. Geez.

Torian said...

conservatives will not get Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot

Steve V said...

Liberal Jocelyn Coulon 324 26.6
Conservative Gilles Duguay 129 10.6
Bloc Québécois Jean-Paul Gilson 98 8.1
neorhino.ca François Yo Gourd 9 0.7

NDP-New Democratic Party Thomas Mulcair 608 50.0
Green Party François Pilon 34 2.8

Total number of valid votes: 1,216

Polls reporting: 13/168

Bloc in fourth.

Steve V said...

torian

Still, a good result. This is shaping up to be a BAD night for the Bloc.

northwestern_lad said...

That's why CPAC is so great... at times like this I'm so glad that i'm completely bilingual, so I don't need to be subjected to that blow-hard Duffy

Steve V said...

Liberal Jocelyn Coulon 388 25.8
Conservative Gilles Duguay 143 9.5
Bloc Québécois Jean-Paul Gilson 135 9.0

NDP-New Democratic Party Thomas Mulcair 761 50.7
Green Party François Pilon 41 2.7

Total number of valid votes: 1,501

Polls reporting: 15/168

I'm starting to see a trend.

Dan McKenzie said...

And us...

northwestern_lad said...

I'm happy about the NDP in Outremont, but i'm stunned at the Bloc cratering there... Imagine, the seperatists running 4th... heads are gonna roll there

Steve V said...

Jeff

6-3 Eagles ;)

Torian said...

better than outremont, that's for sure :)

Steve V said...

dan

It is.

Steve V said...

19 polls, Muclair lead holding. Uh oh.

northwestern_lad said...

I'm waiting until about 90 polls report in Outremont before I go and pop open my celebration champagne... but it's looking good

Steve V said...

If somebody said the Cons would get 60% in Roberval, I would have laughed. Ramp up the war room!

A BCer in Toronto said...

An early Eagles lead Steve, yes, but let's wait until all the polls, er, quarters are in.

Steve V said...

Liberal Jocelyn Coulon 640 31.2
Conservative Gilles Duguay 179 8.7
Bloc Québécois Jean-Paul Gilson 164 8.0
neorhino.ca François Yo Gourd 12 0.6
NDP-New Democratic Party Thomas Mulcair 951 46.3
Green Party François Pilon 50 2.4

Total number of valid votes: 2,053

Polls reporting: 20/168

northwestern_lad said...

Steve... yeah... no need to get ready for the By-elections in Ontario... we'll be into a full-on election before those by-elections happen

Torian said...

has the bloc conceded in roberval yet?

Steve V said...

Liberal Jocelyn Coulon 856 32.1
Conservative Gilles Duguay 228 8.6
Bloc Québécois Jean-Paul Gilson 202 7.6
neorhino.ca François Yo Gourd 16 0.6

NDP-New Democratic Party Thomas Mulcair 1,234 46.3
Green Party François Pilon 63 2.4
Independent John C. Turmel 5 0.2
Total number of valid votes: 2,664

Polls reporting: 25/168

Hall-Findlay already doing damage control on CTV.

A View From The Left said...

nw lad - you might not have the champagne out, but the Conservatives sure do

Torian said...

curious, based on trends thus far, do we see a fall 2007 election in our future?

A BCer in Toronto said...

I thought Martha came off very well. Damage control perhaps, but accurate commentary as well.

Martha for interim leader! :)

northwestern_lad said...

Steve... true, the Conservatives can afford the good stuff... all I can afford is a small bottle of what can best be described as champale... oh well, it's the thought that counts

Steve V said...

torian

I think that throne speech just became a lot tougher.

Steve V said...

Jeff

She is a CLASS act.

A View From The Left said...

lecture's over, so i'm off. see you all again once i'm home.

Miles Lunn said...

I am not surprised the Tories won in Roberval-Lac Saint Jean, but almost 60%, whoa. I think this, along with the ADQ's strong showing, and the Tories 10 seats means the right might be stronger in rural Quebec than many of us thought. If anything we need to find out why this is and do something. While I love seeing the Bloc lose seats, I don't want to see the Tories dominate Rural Quebec they way they dominate Rural Ontario or the West as this means a Tory majority.

Steve V said...

Liberal Jocelyn Coulon 1,159 31.3
Conservative Gilles Duguay 316 8.5
Bloc Québécois Jean-Paul Gilson 285 7.7

NDP-New Democratic Party Thomas Mulcair 1,759 47.5
Green Party François Pilon 87 2.3
Independent John C. Turmel 6 0.2
Total number of valid votes: 3,706

Polls reporting: 35/168

Sorry if I'm driving people nuts with the posts. Looking BAD!

Steve V said...

Green Party Jean-Luc Boily 412 1.8
Liberal Louise Boulanger 2,199 9.4
NDP-New Democratic Party Éric Dubois 569 2.4
Bloc Québécois Céline Houde 6,372 27.3
Conservative Denis Lebel 13,775 59.1
Total number of valid votes: 23,327

Polls reporting: 165/194

Miles, that is a stunner for sure.

northwestern_lad said...

Steve... I don't mind at all :)

Steve V said...

Liberal Jocelyn Coulon 1,461 29.8
Conservative Gilles Duguay 431 8.8
Bloc Québécois Jean-Paul Gilson 400 8.2

NDP-New Democratic Party Thomas Mulcair 2,378 48.5
Green Party François Pilon 121 2.5
Independent John C. Turmel 7 0.1
Total number of valid votes: 4,905

Polls reporting: 45/168

north, chill the bottle ;)

eugene plawiuk said...

As I posted on my blog Roberval is less of a surprise then it appears. The Conservative candidate is a popular mayor which translated into support for him as MP. The BQ is still in second.

But for Liberals all three ridings bode ill.

In the same way Outremont will be won because of name recognition of the NDP candidate. But here what is interesting is the complete decimation of the BQ.

Torian said...

sainte- hyacinthe is the riding to watch...it has the possibility to be pretty close

Steve V said...

eugene

Not the victory, but the 2/1 margin is beyond any predictions.

Kris said...

Looks like the NDP is going to take this one.

Polls reporting: 50/168

NDP-New Democratic Party Thomas Mulcair 2,699 48.5

Liberal Jocelyn Coulon 1,632 29.3

A BCer in Toronto said...

Wanted: 74 popular former Liberal cabinet ministers
Position: NDP election candidate
Send resumes to Jack Layton.

northwestern_lad said...

Steve... I never would have thought that this would be by this big a margin... by 20 % after 50 polls... wow.... I think that this can now be considered worst case scenario stuff for Dion (sorry guys, not trying to gloat, just stating facts)

Steve V said...

Liberal Jocelyn Coulon 1,829 29.2
Conservative Gilles Duguay 566 9.0
Bloc Québécois Jean-Paul Gilson 567 9.1
neorhino.ca François Yo Gourd 31 0.5
Independent Jocelyne Leduc 25 0.4
Independent Régent Millette 7 0.1
NDP-New Democratic Party Thomas Mulcair 3,017 48.2
Green Party François Pilon 159 2.5
Independent John C. Turmel 7 0.1
Total number of valid votes: 6,262

Polls reporting: 55/168


If these numbers hold, the word disaster is too kind.

Steve V said...

norht

Gloat away, pretty impressive stuff.

Torian said...

crap...conservatives gaining in sainte hyacinthe....

northwestern_lad said...

I'm stunned that the Liberals are running 4th in St-Hyacinthe... wow... The NDP running 1st in Outremont and 3rd in St-Hyacinthe... Jack and Olivia are probably having a good night tonight

Torian said...

could the conservatives pull an upset in saint-hyacinthe??? not in my wildest dreams....

Miles Lunn said...

I've already on my blog called all three ridings. Roberval-Lac Saint Jean doesn't need any explanation. Although the margin is not huge in Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot, it is consistent and watching how the networks make predictions during a general election, I feel the lead is enough to call it. Although I hope things tighten up in Outremont, the size of the lead with over 25% polls in is just too much to overcome.

Steve V said...

torian

With the big win in Roberval, this showing in Saint Hy is icing on the cake. Big night for the Conservatives.

Miles Lunn said...

Its official, CTV has just called all three ridings as I stated above.

Steve V said...

Duffy calls Saint Hy for the Bloc. Waiting on Outremont....

northwestern_lad said...

Who would have thought 2 years ago that Stevie Harper could have 11-12 seats in Quebec... amazing

Steve V said...

miles

This result in Outremont is just UNFATHOMABLE. Wow!

Miles Lunn said...

I agree, Steve V, the size of the loss so far is huge and ought to be devastating for us. I suspect either the Bloc Quebecois or Liberals will find a way to support the Throne speech as this night has not been good for either party, so my prediction no federal election this fall.

Bailey said...

It's pretty clear that it was an anti-Liberal vote tonight. All the Conservatives and Bloc voters went over to the NDP. I suppose Jack feels happy for himself.....

Francesco said...

if anyone puts a positive spin on this evening for the liberal party of canada is smoking something...this is ugly...nothing else..

A BCer in Toronto said...

Duffy wants Dion to stop being a staunch defender of federalism. I want Duffy to stop being a blowhard. Neither is going to happen.

northwestern_lad said...

Wow... I'm no fan of Stephane Dion, but I have to admit a small part of me feels bad for him right now... This might not kill him, but it will mortally wound him... Dion at this point kinda reminds me of the Black Knight in Monty Python's "The Holy Grail"

Steve V said...

I never even considered a LANDSLIDE. Just amazing stuff.

northwestern_lad said...

Steve... i'm a New Democrat, and even in my most homer moments, I never would have considered a landslide. Everyone keeps making the comparison of Phil Edmunston to Thomas Mulcair, but I don't think that comparison works now because Edmunston didn't win anywhere near this big

lance said...

Holy cow! 60%! _No one_ saw that.

I'm not sure now if Harper will stay or not. Sure is tempting to load up the throne speech and see what plays.

Cheers,
lance

Uncorrected Proofs said...

Silly Liberal spin begins on CPAC: "Mulcair was really a Liberal so it's no big deal for the NDP"... "Outremont is just one riding out of 308. It's no big deal"... I was paraphrasing of course.

This kind of attitude will bury the Liberal party come the general election.

Steve V said...

north

I never liked the Edmunston comparison, this a different animal altogether.

Torian said...

lance...it's gonna be tough, for sure. Part of me says bring on the election, because we may have a shot at majority, but the other part of me says with results like these, the CPC could essentially govern like they have a majority anyway

eugene plawiuk said...

It is the end of the Liberal dominance of politics in Quebec. Federally and provincially. It also weakens the BQ and with the NDP victory and the Conservatives, they can attack the BQ's left and right wing base.

The riding to watch is sainte- hyacinthe where the BQ is battling to hold the lead.

And Steve I don't think anyone expected the landslide in Robellaire.

As for Dion I guess he will have to don that Puffin suit because his popularity as a leader is less than the popularity of his party. Not only in Quebec.

The knives were already out for him this weekend.

Steve V said...

uncorrected

You can't spin this, its a wipeout.

lance

Weren't you arguing against a fall election earlier today? ;)

Uncorrected Proofs said...

Actually, Phil Edmonston's victory was even more impressive: He won by almost 20,000 votes.

Francesco said...

shrub must be in ottawa with a big smile on his face...victory in the sov.t. heartland / liberals all the big wigs there but as we know it takes a grass roots organization to win and it was lacking it seems...dion is wounded this evening big time and its a shame ......
basically under dion's leadership the liberal party is dead in quebec...that's it we came in fourth in one of the by-elections in quebec...behind the ndp...ouch talk about being spanked

northwestern_lad said...

thanks for the correction uncorrected

Steve V said...

"The knives were already out for him this weekend."

I'm not buying that angle, but they might come out now.

Steve V said...

Liberal Jocelyn Coulon 2,917 28.1
Conservative Gilles Duguay 914 8.8
Bloc Québécois Jean-Paul Gilson 1,026 9.9

NDP-New Democratic Party Thomas Mulcair 5,078 49.0
Green Party François Pilon 247 2.4

Total number of valid votes: 10,373

Polls reporting: 85/168

eugene plawiuk said...

The Conservatives tactics are to win the rural ridings, whether in Alberta or Quebec, by appealing to rural right wing voters. Then surrounding the cities.

lance said...

I was Steve, but that was before 60% in Roberval and >35% in St. Hyacinthe.

northwestern_lad said...

What I find interesting is that all weekend you heard the Liberal spinners talking about Low voter turnout and how "the Liberals get their vote out", "the NDP vote tends not to get out" and how low voter turn out would be good for the Liberals.

Well, that doesn't look to be the case here. Looking at Outremont, the voter turn out there is looking like it will be only 40%ish. So, it looks like the low turnout did nothing to hurt the NDP this time around.

Steve V said...

lance

Just playing, I think we all need to re-adjust our antenna now.

cdlu said...

These results are definitely suboptimal. I felt Mulcair was a threat but like has been said the idea that it would be a landslide victory for him had not occured to me. Newman should be an interesting show tomorrow...

Steve V said...

cdlu

So much for the big push this weekend, I actually thought it might have an effect.

Agent Smith said...

Roberval..? Conservatives at 60 %..? I have a feeling were not in Quebec anymore Toto....Alberta maybe but definitely not Quebec ...

A View From The Left said...

the ridings that everyone thought would be close are landslides, the rinding that was supposed to be a landslide is close.

what can i say, by-elections are never dull.

Uncorrected Proofs said...

Don't feel too bad Liberals, Mulcair is the now the one NDP MP most likely to cross the floor within the next five years. Given his policy differences with the party, I wouldn't be surprised if it happened sooner.

cdlu said...

Steve, ya. Justin Tetreault had an interesting post about that this morning...

Uncorrected Proofs,

I doubt it. My understanding is that Mulcair and Dion personally dislike eachother, so, at least as long as we have Dion Mulcair is likely to stay with the NDP.

If anything, I could see Mulcair walking to the Greens, which would be fascinating. (You heard it here first.)

Uncorrected Proofs said...

cdlu, you're assuming that Dion will still be Liberal leader in the next few years...

lance said...

proofs. Depends. Calgrit's thread has some interesting theories about him being the natural successor to Layton.

If the party can move to him, rather than him to the party it would mean the NDP are a major threat, they might form a gov't and they might replace the Libs as the party on the left.

Cheers,
lance

Torian said...

only a 6 ppint spread between bloc and CPC in st hyacinth, with only 95/224 polls reporting

Steve V said...

Behind the NDP in Saint-Hy, the good news never stops!

A BCer in Toronto said...

iberal spinners talking about Low voter turnout and how "the Liberals get their vote out", "the NDP vote tends not to get out" and how low voter turn out would be good for the Liberals.

I don't know about that, I've always found GOTV and the ground game to be an NDP strength. It's their air game I've always found questionable, at times.

cdlu said...

Uncorrected Proofs,

I wouldn't be writing his obituary prematurely. The knives will no doubt be out but we've had successful leaders walk around for entire decades with knives sticking out of their spines.

Only time will tell.

Steve V said...

Coulon on C Span, Dion in tow.

Uncorrected Proofs said...

cdlu, The difference is that those leaders were Prime Ministers...

Steve V said...

Wow, the stage is full of every well known Liberal imaginable. Iggy looks like he just ate the canary- just kidding ;)

Uncorrected Proofs said...

On CPAC, Iggy standing behind Dion... Is it just me or does it actually look like Iggy is sticking a knife in Dion's back?lol.

cdlu said...

Uncorrected Proofs,

Chretien was written off for most of the three years between when he was elected leader and when he took the party from deep opposition to majority. The knifes for him, too, came out immediately although ultimately the knife-holder was the one to bleed to death.

eugene plawiuk said...

CPAC has Dion and Coulon and a host of Liberal Leadership wannabes now on stage in Outremont conciding defeat at the hands of the NDP. It was their mountain to battle on and they lost.

Steve V said...

Coulon

"I feel as though I won tonight"

That will pass.

cdlu said...

Steve,

Unless his objective was to lose. ;)

Steve V said...

Dion looks stunned.

cdlu said...

Forget Ignatieff -- Coderre looks completely constipated.

eugene plawiuk said...

Dion conceding defeat in Outrmeont, "When a general election comes we will remember this evening of Sept 11 err Sept 17" Uh oh Freudian slip.

Uncorrected Proofs said...

Gerard Kennedy is thinking: Why did I support this guy again?

A BCer in Toronto said...

Unless his objective was to lose. ;)

You mean he was a double-agent? Damm, Iggy is crafty!

eugene plawiuk said...

Dion; "we will rise again" I waited expecting the Liberals to break into the Mary Ellen Carter....

Torian said...

steve, thanks for letting me hang out here!

my condolences on your party's loss. No sarcasm- it sucks when your party does not win. Been down that road before...

hopefully the libs will not try to gloss this over and instead take a good long look at to what went wrong.

Anyway, thanks again!

Steve V said...

torian

Thanks for dropping by. A wake-up call for sure.

burlivespipe said...

Hopefully we'll see Coulon back at it. The dynamics of a by-election are so different from a regular election that you've just got to shake your head, take a swig and know that tomorrow is a new day.
What's interesting is how Harper's divisive and racially-tinged attack on Elections Canada probably played a sizeable role in his party's popularity in the regions (plus one strong candidate)... Let's see how that can grow after a year of silence from their MP... And also how more bling-bling to Quebec's regions will play across the rest of Canada.
Personally, having survived the 1984 and '88 elections, i don't think these results tell us much right now. But certainly i'd give Harper and Layton the night and right to party.

Steve V said...

Jeff

Did you know there are really three Iggy's?

A View From The Left said...

hopefully this acts as a wake-up call to those in the party that need it, as this is clearly bigger then just leadership issues at this point.

lance said...

burlivespipe said, "What's interesting is how Harper's divisive and racially-tinged attack on Elections Canada probably played a sizeable role in his party's popularity in the regions"

Did you just call 60% of Roberval and 36% of St.Hy racists? Good luck with that tack.

Cheers,
lance

Steve V said...

miranda

All the talk of the Liberals organizational strength, and by all accounts it was in shambles. Slow, tired, pretty much incompetent.

A View From The Left said...

steve - exactly. unfortunately i think Dion's going to take all the blame, when most of the problem was organization.

eugene plawiuk said...

Lebel was on CPAC saying " I am a nationalist, and Mr. Harper knows that," Which shows that he got support from not only his position as Mayor in the region, but from Quebec nationalists. Harper is replaying Mulroney's Quebec strategy

cdlu said...

Steve, I'll follow Torian's example and echo his thanks for setting this up. It's almost as good as an IRC channel for the discussion. :)

I agree that this is a wake-up call, but it remains to be seen exactly who it will wake up: Dion? Dion's advisors? Dion's backstabbers?

eugene,

It's Dion's impatience for soft nationists that first drew me to support him. If Harper is trying the Mulroney approach as I agree he is, the one comfort is that it is bound to implode when he finally figures out that Quebec nationalists have a completely insaitiable appetite for concessions, favours, and special treatment.

Steve V said...

eugene

Cons should get a nice bounce in Quebec after tonight.

Miranda

Dion is in for a rough ride, and from the look on his face tonight, he knows it.

Steve V said...

cdlu

Harper approaches federalism like he is a Premier, which presents a dangerous union with nationalists.

A View From The Left said...

steve - i know Dion's in for a rough ride, and he certainly deserves some of it (as I'm sure he's aware), but i'm not sure he deserves all of what he's about to receive.

Steve V said...

I agree, a leader rarely deserves the disporportional blame, but it's a reality. The hand-picked candidate angle is particularly damaging.

eugene plawiuk said...

Mulcair thanked the previous NDP candidate in Outremont who got 6000 votes last time, which outnumbers what the Liberals got this time. So a base was laid, and now the NDP has to build on that base in other urban ridings.

A View From The Left said...

He better hope that there isn't an election this fall, that's all I have to say. The party certainly needs time to fix the multitudinous problems. If there is an election this fall and we lose, I think Dion's done, as much as I hate to say it.

Miles Lunn said...

Lance - Unfortunately I think Harper's whole thing on the veil may have helped him in Rural Quebec much as it did with Mario Dumont. Off course this policy could backfire nationally. I've checked statscan on the foreign born and those with at least one foreign born parent and in Ontario 28% were foreign born while 45% have at least one foreign born parent. In the GTA that jumps to 70% having at least one foreign born parent. Now, yes many were from Europe, however fewer than 10% were from English speaking countries. In Rural Quebec, it is under 5% with a foreign born parent and the few who do are almost all European. In fact even being just 4th generation is less common than being 10th generation Canadian. The whole anti-immigrant thing generally works amongst those who have never met an immigrant and buy into all the stereotype garbage spread about them. In the case of France, Jean-Marie Le Pen's National Front gets most of its support from rural France which is almost 100% white native French born and very little from Paris or other big cities with large immigrant communities, so I think the some dynamic might apply in Quebec.

Miles Lunn said...

A view from the left - I don't want a fall election either, but I don't think we should blindly vote for the throne speech. This is going to be a tricky one, since if we vote for a bad throne speech, we will look weak, but if we vote against it we risk going into an election we are not ready for.

The only good thing is our numbers are better in Ontario and unlike Quebec where the results are often unpredictable, Ontario results usually tend to be predictable.

burlivespipe said...

Lance, please point out where i use the word 'racist'... Harper tried and succeeded in scoring points off the supposed threat that women wearing veils would have on our voting system. Never mind that he proposed the law that did nothing to secure visual identification, despite his cries to the opposite.
Instead, he played on rural Quebec's nationalistic mindset, which recently saw one village in the news for demanding the removal of all veils.
I have no qualms in calling harper a hypocrite, a divisive leader who plays the game of democracy like a fourth-line goon, especially in the age where no fights are allowed. He's chicken and deceitful. While much of his arsenal is fair game, if somewhat counter to the image you and he would like others to believe, he is also obviously not above playing in the dirt, or trying to trick Canadian taxpayers to pay for a twisted ad campaign. But that's you CONs all over.
CONs have been spending their credibility defending Bush and the war on Iraq for the last bloody handful of years, so you should be in good practice when your leader trips up, too.
Enjoy the party. It never lasts as long as one likes...

Torian said...

this was what I was worried about...
cherniak is already excusing the loss by claiming it was due to a lack of lawn signs, among other things...
glossing over....

burlivespipe said...

If a few lawn signs could win an election I think even the Rhinos could piece together something successful. No, while I don't support any all-nighter navel gazing, there are some serious questions that have to be asked by the people in the know.
But let's not feed the frenzy that Harper and his media buddies want.
This was democracy at work and while I don't like being lumped in with Duceppe (among the losers) I think the work that needs to be done can be completed by finishing the team building that was supposedly started at the convention.
The next set of by-elections will present a brighter answer, but the leader and the leaders will need to buck up.

A View From The Left said...

more like major organizational problems, lawn signs don't matter that much.

Steve V said...

Duffy

"I'm not sure if Dion was crying, but it looked like he had been"

Geezus.

Steve V said...

NDP had no trouble with signs. To keep it real, those lame ass excuses from blind partisans is exactly what we don't need now. It's that kind of mentality that gets us here, if you know what I mean.

Anonymous said...

Lesson - the Dion supporters need to grow up - do some work and quit blaming others - they's hurt the party big time. Perhaps they should be fired. I neve bought into this hero worship stuff - childish and damaging.

There was no conspiracy - it was an attempt to have an excuse ready. All that time they could have been working.

And, Dion waited too late to help out himself.

Hard lesson learned - but those are usually the ones remembered.

eugene plawiuk said...

Mulcair pointed out the real difference in Outremont, and I would dare say most of Montreal, the issue was the War. In his acceptance speech Peace came first followed by the Environment. His comments on peace and the war raised a huge round of cheers. After all he was running against Dion's hand picked expert on International affairs. So this was more than an issue of lawn signs.

And lets not forget the NDP came in third in Sainte-Hyacinthe, ahead of the Liberals. There the nationalists split the vote between the BQ and Cons.

Mark Dowling said...

Eugene - Mulcair talked about peace at a room full of NDPers. If they didn't cheer it would have been noteworthy.

I find the aftermath of Canadian elections so much less satisfying than UK/Irish ones because of the tradition there of a single declaration by the returning officer to a mixed assembly of candidates and parties rather than the media declaring it to various scattered rooms full of partisans. The sight of a room where victory and defeat comes together and where the victor and losers stand on the same stage to await the judgement of the people seems more democratic.

There's one person who can definitely be blamed for this fiasco: Jean Lapierre. If he had served the term he promised the electorate rather than running off to TVA they wouldn't be in this mess.