Tuesday, December 02, 2008

Finally, A Poll!

Angus Reid poll, that provides a mixed bag for the coalition and the government.

On the question of whether the Conservatives deserve to govern, a majority disagree 40%, while 35% say they do (a large 25% unsure, which speaks to the importance of the PR battle). Not a good result for the government.

Support for the coalition shows 36% in favor, 40% against (24% unsure). On the question of whether the opposition should topple the government, similar 41% no, 36% yes. Those numbers are challenging, but the idea has a good base of acceptance. It would seem Dion is a drag on the coalition, with only 24% comfortable with him at the helm, a full 64% not comfortable. Also, the Bloc are a clear weakness, 57% worried about their involvement, only 30% comfortable.

Conservatives are losing the battle on the economy, the clear opening if the coalition is too succeed, a full 53% give the government a failing grade, only 36% approve. Also, and this is our hammer point, a overwhelming number of Canadians support a stimulus package, which just happens to be the cornerstone of the coalition- 75% want a stimulus, a paltry 17% against.

What do we want? 32% want another election, while 37% think we should allow the opposition to form a coalition and another 7% support allowing the opposition to govern by "accord", which translates to 44% tilting opposition, 32% to the polls. Another good number for the coalition side.

All in all, it's slight advantage our side.

25 comments:

Blues Clair said...

Those numbers are alot better for the Coalition than I thought they would be. One thing I take from it, voters want both Dion and Harper out of Ottawa.

Steve V said...

Blues

They certainly don't support the idea of massive resistance to Harper going down.

Scott Tribe said...

That was due to the massive freeping of news polls that are totally unscientific.. and if the Cons supporters are good at doing anything.. its rushing en masse to those things to try and make a poll lopsided in their favour.

Anonymous said...

Please, please, please will the leaders and strategists of the coalition parties attempt to win the PR battle.

It is now clear what the CPC strategy is - wedge against the Bloc - something that should be easy to dispel (read: they aren't in government, they don't have a veto, many of their values, especially in regard to the economy, are progressive and compromise can be found with the other parties).

I don't know what it will take to win this, but it seems that given it is three parties against one (albeit that one has some very loud speakers from various media outlets) and a majority of people voted for those parties the advantage should be the coalitions.

In other words, get out there, explain, and be heard. Get back into election mode this is a fight, that's what the Cons are doing.

Gayle said...

I found myself today wondering what Harper would do if their roles were switched, and I concluded he would go ahead with the coalition.

Why? Because people may be up in arms about it now, but assuming the coalition will govern well and be unified (and they must be sure they will do so, otherwise why would they do this), then no one is going to care about any of this in a few months. Or, at least most people will not care.

I think the only way the coalition can turn back now is if Harper is replaced, and the CPC come out with a stimulus package immediately. Otherwise they have no choice but to stay the course.

burlivespipe said...

The CON wave has just begun to lap at the shores. Their media arms are regurgitating the talking points, forgetting the whole seed of this dispute. Crafting it as a 'standing up for Canada' could fog up the fact that no other party in parliament has the stomach to put up with the deception and deceit of the current prime minister.
The public air war will be tough to win; however, when Harper accuses others of breaking their promises I do believe most Canadians will see the hypocrisy pouring from his doughy lips.

Jeff said...

Glad to hear these numbers (generally), but I have been feeling uneasy about two things:
1) Average Canadians know little about how parliament works. Many will have the attitude that "Harper won the election, so he should be allowed to govern". Those of us committed to discussion know better, but many don't.
2) Most coalition politicians bent over backwards to say that it wasn't the subsidy issue that was the call to arms, but the lack of a stimulus package. What will they be left with if the Conservatives offer a significant stimulus package this week?

Jack said...

These aren't bad numbers at all.

I'm actually pleasantly surprised.

This should hopefully convince them to ram ahead with it.

Susan said...

There's no way the cons will put together a stimulus package - they're ideologues and beholden to the oil barons. That's why all they can do is propaganda.

I wish the coalition would get some economists together and do a press conference on their package. Get back to the real issue.

penlan said...

The coalition definitely needs to ramp up their PR. Watching Newsworld this morning they keep playing the Con ad with the union one after - & in some cases only the Con one in their opening segments of the news.

Presenting, over & over, the coalition fear-mongering, outright lies & trying to divide this country 1st will do damage. Every member & supporter of the coalition needs to get in the face of the media. There is no time to waste.

Anonymous said...

Did you see how many Canadians wanted Dion as Prime Minister?

A lot of you Liberal bloggers are careful not to post that number.

RuralSandi said...

I heard that they've been working on obtaining data of the many, many times Harper worked with the BLOC and will bring that forward.

Isn't it a little scary how many people don't understand our parliamentary system and Constitution?

Harper is acting like a republican, yet he's tried to use the parliamentary system to his advantage more than one.

Steve V said...

anon

Did you notice how I mentioned that?? The fact the coalition has such support, despite Dion, should worry Conservatives- it means you've lost the confidence of Canadians.

Jerry Prager said...

Bloc voted for Harper 140 times in last 32 months, supported the 2006 throne speech (after Harper's 2004 conversations about a Bloc supported Con-NDP coalition), Bloc supported 2006 and 2007 budgets. The PM's anti-Bloc sentiment is bluster, misinformation and misanthropic partisanship of a kind only Harper and his Harriste friends know how to spew.

Steve V said...

Jerry

He's going to get hammered on the hypocrisy today. If there's any delay, it's only because the examples are endless ;)

Firewall Harper can't become Captain Canada, that's the key.

cls said...

According to a pollster interviewed on The Current this morning, his company's results show support for a coalition is strongest in Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes and weakest in the West.

olaf said...

How does this:

Support for the coalition shows 36% in favor, 40% against (24% unsure). On the question of whether the opposition should topple the government, similar 41% no, 36% yes.

Become this:

All in all, it's slight advantage our side.

Your pushing it Steve.

Steve V said...

olaf

Not if you take the results in totality :)

Anonymous said...

The rallies tomorrow need to be huge! We are the ones who know how to organise.

olaf said...

Steve,

This is the totality of it:

Support for the coalition shows 36% in favor, 40% against (24% unsure)

It reduces all of their feelings on everything into a simple direct question, which is usually best.

Steve V said...

olaf

No, you're cherry picking. The majority want to topple the government, AND they don't want an election, so...

Say what you want, I guarantee these numbers don't give the government a warm, fuzzy feeling.

olaf said...

Say what you want, I guarantee these numbers don't give the government a warm, fuzzy feeling.

Which government? :)

Anonymous said...

On the question of whether the Conservatives deserve to govern, a majority disagree 40%, while 35% say they do

So, wait... 40% is a majority now? So why is there all this fighting? What if the the 35% that agree get together with the 25% unsure, can they form a coalition of agreeance?

Steve V said...

andy

Sorry, I should amend for the THICK like yourself. A majority of those that responded definitively.

Anonymous said...

Ah, so it's kinda like how a majority of those who voted for national parties in the last election voted for the Conservatives, and then we throw out those 10% who voted for a regional party. I get how statistics work now. Thanks.