Thursday, October 22, 2009

Two Polls

Both the NANOS poll out today, and the weekly EKOS poll show similar results. EKOS puts the Conservatives 11% ahead, NANOS 10%:
Cons 38.3% EKOS, 39.8% NANOS
Libs 27.1%, 30%
NDP 14.5%, 16.6%
Greens 11%, 4.6%

NANOS hasn't polled for 7 weeks, so the poll to poll trend isn't as instructive as the more regular EKOS poll. The fact the two show similar results though, speaks to any relevance in the EKOS finding. Although EKOS still shows a strong Conservative lead, which shouldn't be understated, the gap is down a full 4% in one week, and the Conservative drop is outside the margin of error. Of note, last week I made reference to a huge one day sample from EKOS, on the last day of their sampling, that showed similar numbers, the first hint of a narrowing. This occurs as the government is being hammered, so some pullback is expected. It will be interesting to see subsequent polling, because these things tend to manifest themselves slowly, rather than instant changed fortunes.

In all honestly, I expect to see a GRADUAL narrowing, merely as a function of a return to more normal polling, as the maelstrom around the Liberals fades. If that lowering of the temperature is accompanied by Conservative missteps, then the prior weeks may be another temporary blip, akin to last January. Time will tell.

8 comments:

Marpman said...

I guess keep hammering at the lack of transparency within the government. I would also like to see MI propose changes to the accountability act which would address some of the things which have happened. I am concerned that the Ethics Commissioner will be unable to act.

Steve V said...

That's apparently in the hopper.

Muskoka Liblog said...

I flicked around QP today. Ralph Goodale said $100 M was spent on the Harper Economic Action Plan (HEAP) advertising. There's a golden talking point, right there.

Can someone give me a link to a reputable source that has that figure in writing?

Steve V said...

Agreed. I want to see updated advertising allocations and what these bloody signs are costing. We should be all over this, because it's a gross misuse of public money, triple anything the Liberals used in the past.

Marpman said...

DL huh?
They did not support the NDP motion, not sure how you can draw the conclusion that they do not support action on the environment. MI discussed that the other week, doubt that has changed.

Steve V said...

Off topic partisan blather. Click.

Steve V said...

Marp

Just to be clear, the Liberals aren't rejecting the legislation, they will move it through. We're just not that interested in helping Jack regain his lost credibility on this file. We don't jump just because Jack wants a talking point. Besides, the real world implication, Harper will just ignore it. Hello!

RuralSandi said...

I think Nanos hasn't been polling on politics much lately because of the cable and media fight - CRTC, etc.

I got a call at the beginning of the week from Nanos Research....started by asking a couple of political questions then the whole questioning for the rest was on the cable/media/CRTC issue.