Thursday, October 15, 2009


The latest EKOS poll gives the Conservatives a commanding 15% lead, very much in majority terrority. EKOS breaks it down, day to day, which shows no polling during the holiday weekend, followed by a sizeable sample for Tuesday. This sample alone is the equivalent of most full polls from other outfits, which makes the narrower numbers noteworthy.

Cons 40.7%
Libs 25.5%
NDP 14.3%
Greens 10.5%

The Conservatives gain another percent this week, Liberal number unmoved, NDP down. The poll obviously takes all the days into totality, but because of the holiday gap, EKOS did a huge sample this past Tuesday (881 people, MOE 3.3%). Because of the size, the results are worth a look:
Cons 37.3%
Libs 26.5%
NDP 13.6%
Greens 12.3%

Less than a 11% lead on this last day. I'm curious if this is the first indication of some return to more normal margins, because we've seen this dynamic before when the Conservatives pull way ahead. With the Liberals problems settling down, in terms of exposure, MAYBE the worst has past. A strong number for the Greens, who actually outpolled the NDP on Oct 9.

In terms of the regionals, another strong number for the Conservatives in Quebec, tied with the Liberals at a rounded off 23%, Bloc at 36%, Greens 10%, NDP 8%. Despite the Liberal retreat, the Bloc hasn't really gained support, those voters seem to be returning to the Conservatives.

In Ontario, another impressive number for the Conservatives at 44%, the Liberals at 31% and the NDP at 14%. What is particularly relevant here, and we see it elsewhere, despite the Liberal collapse, the NDP haven't gained anything, even down in some cases. This dynamic is a bit troubling, because it suggests that the NDP isn't part of the consideration, it's all about the jockeying back and forth between the two principles. These Ontario numbers are quite soft and volatile, but a lagging NDP has been a constant. In other regions, we see little evidence of the NDP gaining at the Liberals expense.

Eric provides a seat breakdown, based on these numbers, which shows a Con majority. Interestingly, the Liberal seat total remains in tact, whatever losses are countered by seat pickups over the NDP:
Cons 160
Libs 76
Bloc 50
NDP 22

Moving forward, let's see if these numbers hold, because my bias aside, I see a reasonable scenario where the percentages narrow somewhat. If the Conservatives can sustain this level of support, it will mean an entirely new circumstance, a real shift, rather than temporary blips. It remains to be seen if these type of gaps have "staying power", that's really the thing to watch for a month or two out.


Marpman said...

It will be interestng to see if next weeks poll shows whether the public are going to hold the Tories accountable for ChequeGate. Of course, MI made significant announcements in regards to the environment as well.
I am hoping that we see a softening of the numbers.

rgl said...

It's troubling that so many Canadians are "believing" the spin put on all of the "errors," a spin that focuses on the forces of darkness that are embodied by Liberals, Socialists and Separatists. The use of fear is polarizing more and more. Harper and company have "effectively" turned the opposition into the scapegoats for all that is hurting our country, our community, our family. This is worse that we dare imagine. So, now what?

Michael said...

Growth in Ontario and the Maritimes, a revival in Quebec to what they had before; the Tories are getting exactly what they need to in order to get that majority. From what I've seen from the breakdown, the Liberals are behind in almost every demographic.

Body bags, sexy isotopes, wafers.....constant scanal mongering on non-issues that have evidently gone absolutley nowhere. And now that the Liberals have something more susbtantial with this stupid, ill conceived cheque thing, it won't matter because they've cried wolf too many times. Meanwhile, Ignatieff gives another speech and the Liberals are focusing on another "scandal".

DL said...

Sometimes these seemingly little scandals start to have legs. Remember how long it took the sponsorship scandal to start to have any legs - literally years went by where everyone just scoffed at it as a minor scandal that was way to complicated to explain to anyone. Then there was the Goodale accusation on income trusts. Its hard to know when one of these taps of the chisel starts to cause the edifice to fall apart.

I actually think the cheque issue could have some resonance because it think it genuinely rankles people to have it so obviously exposed that they are being bribed with their own money and if there is one thing that always seems to send the Tories into a tailspin its when they get cocky and over confident and start trying to run up the score.

austin said...

Like I said a couple days ago on this blog the more the Liberals complain the higher the Cons go. But all these polls mean nothing untill election time, Harper was heading to a majority last election but came up short. Somehow though Iggy is actually doing worse than Dion so they might just get it this time.

Ted Betts said...

According to Kady O'Malley, the undecided number is way up which makes any gains by the Conservatives meaningless and highlights how volatile the electorate is right now.

It will be interesting to see EKOS next week with the patronage and pork stories (the cheque scam being only the most visible symbol of the porking from Say Anything Steve) starting to gel and solidify in the consciences of the media at least. If it starts to gel with more Canadians, those numbers will change very fast.

DL said...

I think the fact that the number of people who are undecided or quasi-undecided (ie: about 3/4 of the people who are parking their votes the green party mirage) tells me that actual Tory support is probably about where it was in the last election and that there has been a big growth in the number of people who are oppositional but floating around in the Liberal-NDP-Green-undecided universe....In any election, voters go through a two step process. 1) Do I like the incumbent or not and then if not, 2) which of the opposition parties do I like/ I suspect that a LOT of people are stuck on Q. 2 right now.

Dame said...

I do agrre with DL it is the UNDECIDED fact what we have to see here. Do so many people really love the green "platform" ???
No just parking their vote for now...until they see something liberals may offer .....

the idiocy of all these little fancy " Road to nowhere " parties like Green or NDP .....
And at the end we have Harper the real winner...

Omar said...

"Nobody, other than rabid Libs and Dippers gives a shit."

And I guess passing off your brand as 'Government of Canada' being illegal and all is something YOU and your ilk are hunky dory with, eh Jim?

By the way, given where the Conservatives are in the polls currently, I'd like to thank Mr Harper for breaking his own fixed election date law and sending us to the polls last year. When would the legitimate election been held again? lol..

Omar said...

Hey! Kind of hard to respond to things that have been deleted. Might just as well delete my comments too!

Steve V said...

My apologies Omar.

Steve V said...

Another point, related to the undecided, there is clearly 10-15% of the Ontario electorate that move around with little impetus. It was only a couple months ago, and this trend held, that the numbers were the same in reverse for the two principles. Prior to that, we saw the same dynamic during the coalition debate. What it means, this support is available in a campaign, no matter what any snapshot says. It is very soft support vacilating.

bigcitylib said...

Harris Decima is a little less depressing...

...although the Lib trend still seems to be down.