Thursday, November 12, 2009

New EKOS Poll

The latest EKOS poll shows little change week to week, but a continuing trend of lower Conservative support. This week:
Cons 36.6%
Libs 26.6%
NDP 16.8%

Tracking the Conservative vote over the last month, we see the following week to week:
Oct 15 40.7%
Oct 22 38.3%
Oct 29 38.4%
Nov 5 37.4%
Nov 12 36.6%

A steady, slight decline in Conservative support, as they return to minority status. What is interesting as well, there is really no corresponding Liberal uptick. The Liberal vote has remained static, with virtually no movement week to week. The Liberals have hovered between 26-27% the past four polls. The Conservative support is going elsewhere for the most part, the NDP up 2.5% over this period. I find this a bit concerning for the Liberals, because previously, much of the ebb and flow has been between the two principles. It would appear that voters are hesitant to return to the Liberal fold, despite some Conservative erosion.

Of note, heaps of caution notwithstanding, the last night of polling from EKOS, taken after the by-elections gives the Conservatives their best result 39.4%, Libs 25.4%. While you don't want to read to much into this potentially flawed number, it's hardly surprising that a day of positive/negative press would have some effect. We'll have to wait until next week to see if that was a blip, or if the Conservative slide has countered.


Tomm said...

The numbers are certainly stable. I'm not sure I would interpret "erosion" or "up ticks" to the Conservative numbers.

The Liberal numbers are entrenched. That along with the apparent lack of a ground game during the bye-elections has got to be a concern.

Steve V said...


Well, when the slowly go down week after week, it implies a limited "erosion". The Cons don't seem to be able to sustain majority numbers in the long run.

Frunger said...

A slight erosion isn't odd by any means. It's similar to the way stocks move around. There is resistence around to 38-40 range for cons UP and 27-25 DOWN for libs. We could look at these levels as potential tipping points.

I would think it would take a major event to move either party past those levels, but once the levee breaks, it can turn into a tital wave very quickly.

An event like this might never occur, but a slow progression isn't likely to be strong enough to break through.

There is a better chance that everyone stays at about where they are until the next election, and the GOTV effort makes the difference.

off topic - the word verification for this post was "hobag". Weird.

Dame said...

I Find the" so called " Green Numbers the most Interesting as I see it totally unreal absurd even ridiculous ...
So people think they like the Green Party’s ID or The green platform ? what we Liberals can't show???
Give me a freaking break!!!
These polls are BS if You Think it Represent Canadians generally.
I would never give a thoughtful answer on these questions they usually ask.

Steve V said...


Well, in the past two Ontario elections, fed and prov, the Green vote translated pretty much exactly from the polls.

Dame said...

well and what those green votes actually did to the green agenda ?/ delivering ANYTHING???

I am so mad to see how people are blinded and can't think reasonably...
Splitting the votes what makes Harper the King the Anti Green King

Steve V said...

No question, it's a wasted vote, especially last election when we had Dion. It's a symptom of a failing Liberal brand, people are looking around.

CanadianSense said...


your are too cruel!

DC should join the NDP!