Tracking the Conservative vote over the last month, we see the following week to week:
Oct 15 40.7%
Oct 22 38.3%
Oct 29 38.4%
Nov 5 37.4%
Nov 12 36.6%
A steady, slight decline in Conservative support, as they return to minority status. What is interesting as well, there is really no corresponding Liberal uptick. The Liberal vote has remained static, with virtually no movement week to week. The Liberals have hovered between 26-27% the past four polls. The Conservative support is going elsewhere for the most part, the NDP up 2.5% over this period. I find this a bit concerning for the Liberals, because previously, much of the ebb and flow has been between the two principles. It would appear that voters are hesitant to return to the Liberal fold, despite some Conservative erosion.
Of note, heaps of caution notwithstanding, the last night of polling from EKOS, taken after the by-elections gives the Conservatives their best result 39.4%, Libs 25.4%. While you don't want to read to much into this potentially flawed number, it's hardly surprising that a day of positive/negative press would have some effect. We'll have to wait until next week to see if that was a blip, or if the Conservative slide has countered.