Conservatives: 31.0 (-)
Liberals: 29.0 (-2.9)
NDP: 15.5 (+0.1)
Bloc Quebecois: 10.3 (+1.9)
Green: 11.3 (+0.4)
Other: 2.8 (+0.4)
A significant change for an EKOS poll, the Liberals down a full 3%. Neither the Conservatives or NDP capitalize, which is interesting. On the face of it, not a great result for the Liberals, but equally bad for the Conservatives. We see a negative trend on the "direction of the government" score for the Conservatives, and we see no rebound in their numbers, despite the Liberals down tick.
The Liberals are down in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and Atlantic Canada. Ontario is interesting:
Ontario (MoE 3.08)
Liberals: 36.2 (-4.4)
Conservatives: 31.0 (-1.4)
NDP: 16.7 (+2.7)
Green: 13.6 (+3.1)
Other: 2.4 (-)
Rarely do you see both the principle parties down at the same time. Despite the Liberals dropping noticeably, the Conservative vote maintains the same downward trend. A very sizable Green vote from EKOS, which seems high, relative to other pollsters. Pegging Green support seems to show the widest divergence between pollsters, EKOS tends to give them high scores, while others point to relative irrelevance.
You don't want to infer to much from one poll, but you can speculate. I'm not sure it's a coincidence that the Liberal momentum suddenly stalled and reversed itself, just after the child care commitment. The press reaction wasn't kind, a mixture of cynicism and downright mocking, one has to wonder if these pie in the sky assertions don't feed a previous "say anything" narrative that plagues the Liberal brand. I would argue that the Liberals have performed exceptionally well in the past few weeks, with the exception of this policy. It is fair to wonder if the child care issue has had some effect. I'd hesitate, but wouldn't exclude.
For the Conservatives, down in Ontario, down in Quebec, static in British Columbia, no region where they show any signs of turning it around. Couple that with the perception of the country's direction, and there is nothing here for Conservatives to crow about. If anything, isolating their support, it seems the Conservatives numbers are stabilizing at a low point.
I remain convinced that a crucial portion of the electorate is decidedly soft, anything can sway them back and forth. These are the people who will ultimately decide the next election, so no party can take any comfort, they will remain up for volatile until voting day.